Why climate change experts warn the record-breaking death toll is a window into the future
As temperatures rose 12 degrees above average to 35 degrees in England last Wednesday, the London School of Economics canceled an event to discuss the impact of extreme heat.
A heat wave in which global warming caused by the burning of fossil fuels had reached its record-breaking extreme had collapsed on Europe under a dome of high pressure and unleashed carnage across the continent. So-called “red” warnings had been issued in London warning people of the danger of extreme heat.
The event on 24 June would mark the start of London Climate Week. The panel was also supposed to include Professor Lord Nicholas Stern, former chief economist of the World Bank and also known as the author of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change.
Apologizing for the cancellation, the LSE explained that the venue where it planned to hold the event, known as the Old Building, “like most buildings in London”, did not have cooling mechanisms and that it would not be safe to host a public meeting within solid stone walls.
This was not an unfounded concern, given the already rising death toll across Europe. that day London Ambulance Service responded to 7,900 calls, including 642 calls in the most serious category. This was a record, but the next day the record fell again.
Hospitals in France have been under pressure, with staff in some hospitals begging from fast food restaurants for ice to pack heat-exhausted patients. In initial reports, health authorities recorded more than 1,000 deaths due to heat, but there were other causes of death as well.
French Minister of Sports and Youth Marina Ferrari Warning that more than 90 people drowned between June 19 and early July While people try to cool off in rivers and streams.
3 year old child died He was trapped by a child lock after getting into a car in Paris while his parents were distracted. A brother and sister, aged two and four, died due to the circumstances in the south of France.
“We are going through completely unprecedented times; we must have the humility to accept this fact,” French President Emmanuel Macron said at a press conference. “We have adapted to global warming, but there is no way to adapt to a peak that is unprecedented in Europe today and unprecedented in our history, meaning a heatwave peak where temperatures rise 15 degrees above seasonal averages for such a long period.”
The World Health Organization has warned that extreme heat will become increasingly common. “Europe is warming more than twice the global average. Heat waves are no longer one-off freak events,” the statement said. “Every summer we fail to prepare for them is a summer we pay the price for in our lives.”
III of Spain Carlos Health Institute, in its report, said that at least 1028 deaths occurred due to heat in the last days of June and that it was preparing for temperatures up to 44 degrees this weekend.
The death toll is likely to be over 20,000, according to one analysis, as health officials are not equipped to quickly report heat-related deaths and elderly victims who die alone at home can go unreported for days or even weeks.
A quick modeling exercise Doctor Christopher CallahanThe Indiana University climate scientist estimates that the heat likely killed more than 20,000 people, with more than 5,000 excess deaths in France between June 22 and June 28, more than 4,500 in Germany, more than 3,000 in Spain, 2,700 in Italy, 1,070 in Poland and 862 in the United Kingdom.
He says the disaster was “a window into the future.”
Callahan’s workIt uses statistical analysis of excess deaths rather than death reports from health authorities, which have not yet been peer-reviewed.
But the impact so far has gone far beyond deaths and injuries.
In Germany, which broke the all-time temperature record for three consecutive days, Seals on tram rails melted Public transport was stopped in the city of Leipzig. There were rivers in France Too hot for nuclear power plants Energy production was cut as demand increased for the safe discharge of heated water. Schools in Germany, France, Spain and the United Kingdom were closed.
According to Reuters, carcass collection services were inadequate in France as hundreds of thousands of chickens died from the heat. The cost of agriculture is not yet clear.
Another event was held in London, half an hour’s drive from the LSE’s canceled forum, at a much larger and fully air-conditioned venue. This was the conference of the Alliance for Responsible Citizenship, an increasingly annual gathering of conservative and right-wing politicians and commentators.
The ARC’s primary concerns include defending what it calls Western civilization and fighting against climate actions it sees as a waste of money.
Addressing the crowd, Nigel Farage, leader of the far-right Reform Party, which is leading in Britain’s polls, reflected that the heatwave, which hit more than 150 million people at the time, was a colossal snarl.
“I was surprised to see so many people here. Don’t you know there’s a red alert? We’re in the red zone! Schools are all closed! No one will work! There’s danger to life!” he said at the beginning of an onstage speech.
He went on to attack both the UK Labor Party and the Conservatives for their support for climate action policies. “The Conservatives even wrote net zero into law, and in my opinion they should not be forgiven for that,” he said.
Farage’s party rejects the scientific consensus on climate change, just like the new right emboldened in Europe and Donald Trump’s America. It was often a punchline when climate change was mentioned at the ARC conference, attended by conservative figures from around the world, including Tony Abbott and Peta Credlin, Scott Morrison and Barnaby Joyce.
Even as a new heat wave builds in Europe and another in the United States, there is little sign that the grim death toll will change conservatives’ hardening views on climate action.
Instead of addressing the connection between fossil fuels and the skyrocketing death toll this week, conservatives accused progressives of opposing the deployment of air conditioners.
“It’s time for France to implement a major air conditioning equipment plan” French far-right leader Marine Le Pen said the following in her post on the X channel:. He accused French “so-called elites” of leaving ordinary people to suffer in the heat while they enjoyed air conditioning.
“Hospitals, schools, nursing homes, public transport, etc., although they accommodate the French, who are particularly sensitive to heat, do not have the necessary equipment.”
The failure of serious debate led one German commentator to say:Complaining that heat waves such as floods have now become natural disasters, “The difference is, when there’s a flood, every politician takes off his gumboots and speaks stiltedly into cameras and microphones. But when it’s hot, [conservative politician] Markus Söder shares a photo of himself in an outdoor pool and says: ‘Swimming is beneficial when the weather is hot.’ Really?”
Richard Black, Berlin-based climate analyst and author of the book Denied: The Rise and Fall of Anti-Climateism, He says it’s clear why, in the face of such a long-awaited disaster, some leaders choose to engage in a culture war to cool the infrastructure. “It’s certainly better for the fossil fuel industry, but it’s also better for the politicians and the think tanks, the lobby groups, that oppose the clean energy transition. Because then we’re not talking about the energy transition, we’re talking about air conditioners.”
He doesn’t expect much change in the near future. Although conservatives advocated for climate and environmental protection, with Nixon and Reagan pushing for a clean air and sea policy and Thatcher leading the push for climate action, the emerging far right disparaged the policy.
With no pressure from their opponents to act, progressive leaders were allowed to back down on their ambitions.
On the last day of the Alliance for Responsible Citizenship conference, Abbott concluded his speech criticizing the history of black armbands by saying, “We call it the ARC. There was another ship that saved humanity, it was a ship in the Bible, and maybe this is our struggle.”
Outside, a small group of Christian protesters waited in the heat; one of them carried a sign with a quote from Pope Francis: “Hear the Cry of the Earth and the Cry of the Poor – Protect Our Common Home.”
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Nick O’Malley is the National Environment and Climate Editor of The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age. He is also a senior writer and former US correspondent.Connect via email.
