Why France’s nuclear strategy pivot is so significant
French President Emmanuel Macron gives a speech next to the nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) submarine “Le Temeraire” – S617 during his visit to the Ile Longue Nuclear Submarine Naval Base in Crozon, northwestern France, on March 2, 2026. (Photo: Yoan VALAT / POOL / AFP via Getty Images)
Yoan Valat | Afp | Getty Images
“To be free, one must be feared. To be feared, one must be strong,” French President Emmanuel Macron said in his landmark speech on nuclear deterrence this week.
France is one of the two nuclear powers in Europe and, unlike the UK, operates a nuclear weapons system completely independent of the US.
Bruno Tertrais, deputy director of the Strategic Research Foundation, said in an
Speaking in front of the “Le Téméraire” submarine from a naval base in Brittany, Macron’s 45-minute speech laid out what he called a new “forward deterrence” doctrine for France.
Macron said France would increase its number of nuclear warheads and promised greater cooperation with European allies that showed interest.
He said many European countries, including Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, Sweden and Denmark, could participate in exercises of France’s air-launched nuclear capability and that France’s nuclear bombers could be deployed at its air bases. Macron also said he would stop releasing figures on France’s nuclear arsenal.
“The world is getting increasingly difficult, and recent events have shown this once again,” he said in his speech.
“We must strengthen our nuclear deterrent against a range of threats and consider our deterrence strategy deep within the European continent through the phased implementation of what I call advanced deterrence, with full respect for our sovereignty.”
Yannick Pince, Associate professor of history at Sorbonne Nouvelle University, told CNBC that the speech should be seen in the context of next year’s presidential elections, which a far-right National Rally candidate could win.
“He needed to make a politically acceptable speech to announce measures that would be difficult to reverse next year,” Pincé said. he said.
“It also had to be trustworthy enough with our allies. It walked a tightrope, and from my perspective it was quite successful.”
An independent nuclear deterrent has been the cornerstone of France’s defense strategy for more than 60 years.
However, Macron said the doctrine must evolve along with the threats. Macron signaled a shift in 2020, saying France’s “vital interests”, the definition of which remained deliberately vague, now had a “European dimension”.
On Monday, Macron said the years since 2020 have been “like decades, and the last few months have been like years.”
“Our Competitors have evolved, as have our partners,” he said, adding “the last few hours” of escalating conflict in the Middle East showed how the world has become “harsher.”
Macron talked about the war in Ukraine and the threat from Russia, as well as China and the US’s changing defense priorities.
In line with historic nuclear doctrine, Macron rejected explicit “guarantees” given to partner countries, saying the decision to use force “belongs solely to the President.”
Ankit Panda, Stanton’s senior fellow in the nuclear policy program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, called the speech “remarkable.”
‘A new nuclear age in Europe’
Panda wrote in a blog that the speech welcomed the moment for “a new nuclear age in Europe, without abandoning the fundamental pillars of French nuclear strategy or culture.”
Darya Dolzikova, senior research fellow for nuclear proliferation and nuclear policy at the defense think tank RUSI, wrote in X that “some allies” “will not be happy” with Macron’s refusal to compromise on operational independence.
“Germany will almost certainly push for more. But joint decision-making will never be on the table,” he wrote.
Macron said the adapted doctrine “perfectly complements NATO’s doctrine, both strategically and technically.”
Pincé said Macron’s speech was aimed at extending to non-nuclear allies the principles of the Northwood Declaration, an agreement signed between Britain and France last year that put cooperation between Europe’s two nuclear powers on a more formal basis.
French President Emmanuel Macron welcomes British Prime Minister Keir Starmer (left) during a meeting on the situation in Ukraine and security issues in Europe at the Elysée Palace on February 17, 2025. (Photo: Tom Nicholson/Getty Images)
Tom Nicholson | Getty Images News | Getty Images
“This is the right idea and really the only possible way,” Pincé added.
France and Germany later issued a joint statement promising “concrete steps this year” such as Germany’s participation in French nuclear drills.
Macron’s speech was long planned but was updated to mention the “ongoing war in the Near and Middle East.” Macron said, “With Iran having nuclear and ballistic capabilities that have not yet been destroyed, it carries and will continue to carry the seeds of instability and potential fire to our borders.”
The “forward deterrent” has raised questions about finances in France, especially at a time when it is struggling to reduce its debt.
Pincé said Macron addressed the issue by saying the allies would address all non-nuclear aspects of the new system. Pincé called it “a way to share the burden” without giving French allies access to anything that would raise questions about France’s contributions to nuclear weapons decision-making.
Domestic criticism of the speech was limited. Marine Le Pen, former presidential candidate of the National Rally, and Jordan Bardella, the party’s potential next candidate, said in their statement, “France must assume its role as a strategic power in Europe, establish dialogue with its partners and contribute to the security of the continent.”
“He can only do this by retaining exclusive control over final decision-making,” they said.
The question is whether whoever wins the election next year will be able to maintain the doctrine laid out by Macron.
