Why have the Tory defections to Reform dried up?

B.The oisdale restaurant, a short walk from Victoria station in Belgravia, has been a popular meeting point for Westminster’s centre-right political crowd for at least two decades, ever since it became the focal point of opposition to Tony Blair’s ban on indoor smoking.

But Conservative MPs, who have been here frequently in recent months, were avoiding this because being seen there was a sure sign they were planning to defect to Reform UK.

The restaurant became an unofficial center of operations for Nigel Farage and his party, where interviews and discussions about breakups took place over oysters, venison and claret.

But from Friday Conservative MPs and colleagues may feel it is safe to return as the May 7 deadline set by Mr Farage for asylum seekers to be welcomed into Reform passes.

Despite suggestions from Conservative MPs that there might be a stampede towards Reform, the divisions are in fact long over; The last MP to switch sides on January 26 was former interior minister Suella Braverman.

Since then only the arrival of former Newham mayor Sir Robin Wales from Labor on 4 March has been a departure of any significance.

Meanwhile, on the right, Rupert Lowe’s threat to Restore Britain caused a steady stream of defections from Reform members, including seven councillors.

Nigel Farage set the deadline of May 7 (the same day as local and devolved elections) at the press conference on January 15, where he welcomed Mr Jenrick to Reform.

This was a message to Conservative MPs in particular. Mr Farage said the May 7 election will be the day the Conservative Party ceases to be a national party, so it will have losses.

The idea was that Conservatives on the right, who were anxiously weighing whether to join Reformation, would stop dithering and do it.

But since then only Romford MP Andrew Rosundall on January 18, followed by Ms Braverman eight days later, has taken the plunge.

From the watchlist of 11 Tory MPs Independent Only Rosundall and Braverman switched allegiances following Jenrick’s departure.

Reform targets such as Katie Lam, Lewis Cocking, Sir John Hayes, Mark Francois, Esther McVey, Sir Desmond Swayne, Matt Vickers, Joy Morrisey and Bradley Thomas remained put.

Even Tory peers such as Lord David Frost and Lord Stewart Jackson, who were said to be ready to move and had less potential to lose than their MPs, did not join Reformation. If all those expected to defect had done so, then this might have been a curtain for a critical mass transition to Reformation for the Conservatives after 300 or more years of history.

But the deadline did not provide the stimulus Mr Farage had hoped for.

Conservative Party 2.0

It is widely debated whether MPs who joined Reformation did so because they believed in what Mr Farage was selling.

Mr Jenrick gave up his ambition. The former minister was sacked after it emerged that he had plotted to defect from Badenoch’s shadow cabinet, with screenshots of Jenrick’s resignation letter and media strategy being delivered to the Tory leader’s office; these screenshots jumped ship, revealing a plot to deal a devastating blow to his former party.

He had calculated that he would not be able to replace Kemi Badenoch as Tory leader and that he would have a much better chance of being Farage’s potential heir on Reform.

Meanwhile, according to friends of defector Mr Rosundall, his decision to switch parties was linked more to his status as “Mr Romford” than to any ideological reasons.

“All Andrews [Tory] Councilors were about to go to Reform and he felt he had to go with them,” said one Conservative MP.

Meanwhile, Ms Braverman’s husband was previously a registered member of Reform UK, but he was so disengaged from the Conservatives that he was rarely seen in parliament.

Lord Malcolm Offord, the Scottish leader of the Reformation, was another man struck by ambition. According to Conservative sources, his bid to become Conservative Party leader in the House of Lords was rejected and days later he appeared on the floor alongside Mr Farage.

Others, including Sir Jake Berry, Nadine Dorries, Marco Longhi and Dame Andrea Jenkyns, were no longer in parliament.

But while Mr Farage failed to achieve the critical mass of defections he had hoped for, the number of former Tories in senior positions was a concern for the Reform base and original supporters.

About 9 per cent of Reform’s support is “shaky”, according to one support tracker, and he doesn’t like the party “being Tory Party 2.0”.

A long-time ally of Mr Farage said: “People don’t want the failing Conservative Party back in government. They want something new and Nigel has allowed himself to be distracted.”

That’s why Mr Lowe’s new party has attracted so many former Reform members.