Why IndiGo cancellations turned into a national crisis

In reality, the trigger, the introduction of Crew and Flight Duty Time Limitation (FDTL) rules, was not so unexpected. The Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) drafted the revised norms in January 2024, giving airlines months to prepare for phased implementation from July 2025, with the final phase planned for November. But IndiGo, which operates a lean staffing model designed to minimize costs, was unprepared.

domination disaster

The current crisis highlights deeper structural problems in India’s aviation industry. The domestic sector, which was a market with eight airlines in 2014, is now dominated by four airlines: IndiGo, Air India Group, SpiceJet and Akasa Air. Although India is the world’s fifth largest domestic aviation market, just two airlines control more than 90% of this market; IndiGo alone holds about 65%.

Naturally, this means IndiGo operates at least 50% of the flights in the country. A. Mint Winter schedule analysis of confirmed domestic flights shows IndiGo operated 56% of the weekend’s flights on domestic routes 14 December. This means operational challenges at IndiGo will continue to disproportionately impact flight operations.

Moreover, IndiGo’s fleet is so large above other airlines that they lack the capacity to absorb passengers, paralyzing the entire system.

foreseeable failure

What appeared to be a rapid collapse of the entire system was an oversight issue. IndiGo cited “numerous unforeseen operational challenges”, particularly crew shortages triggered by the new FDTL norms, rules designed to prevent pilot fatigue by limiting flight hours and mandating rest periods for mass cancellations.

However, its launch was not entirely unexpected. Discussions on this started in early 2024, with the DGCA preparing the revised draft of the FDTL rules in January 2024. After airlines raised concerns about operational strain and insufficient lead time, the regulator announced a phased rollout from July 2025; The final phase was set for November, giving airlines months to prepare.

IndiGo, whose business model is based on lean staff and short turnaround time, could not adequately prepare for the new norms. The crew crisis came even as IndiGo was staging a financial recovery and posting profits. ₹8,172 crore in FY24 and ₹7,258 crore in FY25 after years of losses. According to the latest data available in the media, more than 60% of the total 1,232 flight cancellations in November were reported due to the new norms.

The situation has worsened with more than 2,000 flight cancellations so far in December. A breakdown of the reasons is not available at this time. Given IndiGo’s dominant position, the government had to roll back some rules by February to allow IndiGo to ease the crisis.

pilot paralysis

IndiGo has been working with lean team for years and this has made it a successful company low cost carrier. While this model worked for airlines, there were concerns about pilot fatigue and the safety of flight operations, leading the government to implement new rules, including increasing mandatory weekly rest from 36 hours to 48 consecutive hours, separating leave from the rest period, and limiting night landings.

This meant either airlines hired more staff or reduced the number of operational flights. IndiGo’s failure lay in its staffing strategy.

The airline had 14-15 pilots per aircraft in FY23, but this number dropped to 12-13 as of FY25. This was a result of fewer pilots being recruited even though the size of the fleet increased. Despite operating India’s largest pilot pool of 5,456, the low rate meant the company was not ready to comply with the new rules without cancellations.

The Federation of Indian Pilots alleged that IndiGo implemented a “hiring freeze” despite knowing that the revised FDTL norms would require more crew.

too big to fail

With the entire aviation industry plunged into crisis, the government had no choice but to propose extending the application of the new rules. While this helped restore normalcy within a few days, the crisis exposed the problem of near monopoly or too big to fail problem in the aviation industry. India particularly stands out in this segment.

Among the world’s top five domestic aviation markets, India stands out with a disproportionately high share of the leading airline (64%). In the US, Delta has only 18%, while China Southern has 16%. The UK is getting close to that, but its largest airline, easyJet, has yet to break the 50% mark. IndiGo’s dominance means that operational problems are not just a company problem; These paralyze the entire system.

India’s domestic air traffic increased rapidly 166.2 million Passenger numbers in FY25 from 69.8 million passengers in FY15. As the government continues to expand aviation infrastructure and encourage air travel, The IndiGo crisis underscores the urgent need for greater competition, robust regulation and measures to ensure safety without causing disruption across the country.

Tanay Sukumar contributed to this story.