Why the latest Resolve Political Monitor suggests a potential decline for One Nation and Pauline Hanson
After months of enjoying poll success and by-election victory, Pauline Hanson had a choice as winter approached.
All major polls showed One Nation ahead not only of the Coalition but also of Labor. He could consolidate his position. Maybe he issued a cost of living policy.
But he has chosen to move from the sidelines, where he can criticize the establishment without offering solutions, to the field, where he and his colleagues appear determined to be as disruptive as possible.
Results from the latest Resolve Political Monitor represent a significant shift away from One Nation in just one month. The sparkle came out. Hanson remains in a compelling position that commentators did not see coming a year ago, but if this is the start of a trend the last few weeks will be remembered as a significant period of miscalculations.
Consider what has happened since the beginning of June. Barnaby Joyce joined the anti-abortion movement, which Peter Dutton knew was a dead end. In a speech at the National Press Club on June 17, Hanson called employees who are a key part of his suburban base lazy. In the same speech, he railed against paid parental leave and advocated for a monoculture that he was constantly having to redefine.
Harsh comments about childcare, abortion and wages still resonate online, according to leading party hardliners who track public sentiment.
In July, Joyce and then Hanson set out for London for the European summer, rather than spending the winter there to regain their faith. Coalition MPs wonder on their travels whether Hanson and company are oversupplied with their own supply. (Brigid McKenzie, a leading figure in the coalition, was also in London on the conservative lecture tour.)
Hanson’s itinerary is illuminating. So far he has met Rupert Lowe, the MP who was expelled from Reform Britain and founded Restore Britain, the party to Nigel Farage’s right. He also marched in the streets alongside criminal anti-Islamic extremist Tommy Robinson, who was disavowed by Farage and labeled a thug by Australian conservative Andrew Bolt.
These confounds suggest that Hanson is operating without too many restrictions and is not shifting his sights to voters outside the core One Nation bloc. Australians may want the system to change, but poll results show the majority of discontent has moved away from Hanson.
One Nation lost three points in the preliminary vote, 29 to 26. The votes transferred neatly to the Coalition, with the vote rising from 20 to 23 (most other polls have yet to show an increase in Coalition votes). At the same time, only 25 percent of those polled prefer Hanson to become prime minister; This rate dropped to 33 last month. 19 percent think that Bir Ulus will win the next election. This rate dropped to 28.
These are big changes that fall well outside the 2 per cent margin of error in last week’s survey of 2250 Australians.
Hanson’s favorability is still positive at +3, but has dropped 11 points in one month. His popularity fell to the same level as December, when the Bondi massacre helped boost his rise over the summer.
Bondi’s horror, the controversial budget and Farrer’s victorious by-election all boosted One Nation in the polls.
This poll is important for the centre-right’s fight for supremacy, but it shows Labor can easily win the election even with a low initial vote of 28 per cent.
Anger over Labour’s unpopular budget has subsided. Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings, which were much worse than Hanson’s, started to improve in this poll.
Hurt in the wake of the budget, Albanese passed contentious bills and continued to trumpet his victories in the Pacific and host a feel-good visit from Indian leader Narendra Modi.
Angus Taylor, who has been battered in the polls since taking the leadership, sees a glimmer of hope.
Taylor finally bared his teeth in his fight with Hanson last week and delivered a speech that made his party seem reckless. But there are growing rumors about Andrew Hastie’s ambitions. If the comments on social media clips of Taylor sending Hanson packing are anything to go by, the One Nation train still has power.
Despite Hanson’s deceptive claim, repeated in London, that he is willing to work with Taylor, the rise of One Nation is a disaster for the Coalition. But if his team can develop a first-choice advantage over his party, a surge in the Conservatives’ combined vote could make the Coalition competitive on a bipartisan basis.
The past month shows that One Nation hasn’t moved a leopard despite being pushed into the mainstream as the Coalition and Labor flounder. Voters should not expect a sharp turnaround when Hanson returns from London, and the question will be whether this decline is a blip or the beginning of a larger correction.
Cut through the noise of federal politics with news, views and expert analysis. Subscribers can sign up for our weekly Inside Politics newsletter.
Paul Sakkal is the Chief Political Correspondent. He has previously covered Victorian politics and won the Walkley award as well as the 2025 Press Gallery Journalist of the Year award. Contact him securely on Signal @paulsakkal.14.Connect with: X or email.
