Will Andy Burnham return to parliament – and what would it mean for Keir Starmer? | Andy Burnham
Lucy Powell, Labor deputy leader and close ally of Andy Burnham, sent a clear message to her party when she took to the stage at the Fabian conference in London on Saturday.
“I want to make sure we put the best team on the field week in and week out so we can win these important games,” he told the audience.
“I don’t want to see Haaland on the bench because there are some disagreements. But at the same time, I will stand behind Pep Guardiola as our manager and make sure that we win games, win those important games and continue to win the league. I think we can do that.”
With Labor falling behind in the polls, Keir Starmer under pressure and unpopular at home, and dozens of MPs worried about retaining their seats at the next election, the view is widely shared that the party should have its best players on the field.
But the question many in the Labor Party were pondering on Saturday as they waited long hours until 5pm to submit Gorton and Denton preselection applications was whether Andy Burnham saw himself as the team’s star forward or captain.
Burnham is fully aware that many will see her return as just the first step in a plan to take over Keir Starmer’s leadership. Burnham directly challenged this issue in a letter to Labour’s ruling national executive committee (NEC) and published on social media at 5pm.
“I will be there to support the work of the government, not undermine it, and I have conveyed this assurance to the prime minister,” he told them.
But does anyone believe him? Immediately after the by-election was certified last Thursday, Starmer’s allies had already launched a “Stop Andy” campaign to prevent the Labor mayor from returning to parliament.
With the party machinery tightly controlled by Starmer’s chief of staff Morgan McSweeney, Burnham getting past the NEC and entering the race may seem like an almost impossible task.
Party insiders point to the cost of the mayoral by-election campaign in Greater Manchester; This means around £500,000 of the party’s funds have been diverted from other races in Britain. “That alone should be enough to say no,” an NEC source said.
Burnham’s insistence that he would be a team player was unsurprisingly met with skepticism in some quarters.
One minister said: “If anyone believes he is doing this to support the government rather than weaken it, I have a bridge to sell them. The NEC should argue that we all know what Andy is up to and they will not stand for it.”
Some Labor MPs drew parallels with Boris Johnson, who re-entered parliament in a by-election while mayor of London, while denying it was the start of a campaign to get into Downing Street. Once elected, he spent years undermining subsequent prime ministers until he achieved his goal.
Yet Burnham has a powerful party figure on her side. They include Lucy Powell, her predecessor Angela Rayner, former leader Ed Miliband, London mayor Sadiq Khan, the two largest unions and scores of MPs and party members. If it were prevented, there would be serious unrest.
The NEC is not his only hurdle, of course. In fact, he would have to win the seat; would potentially face Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents. Even Green Party leader Zack Polanski is considering running.
Burnham’s regional approval ratings are high. He’s not called the King of the North for nothing. According to Ipsos, Nigel Farage (the only politician with a positive rating) is rated at +25 among voters in the north-west, with Starmer at -29 and Starmer at -40.
But even if he returns to Westminster, the leadership race will certainly not be automatic. While many MPs are disillusioned with Starmer, fearing he cannot turn things around, the No 10 operative has been trying to sway them since the autumn.
Starmerians argue that it would be extremely unreasonable to try to eliminate their man at a time of such global instability. They add that the experience of managing a city region is very different from the experience of managing a country.
But no one denies that the May elections represent the next moment of great danger for the prime minister. And if Burnham were to return to parliament, she would be in a position to strike.
Another worry among MPs that could save Starmer is that a coup less than two years after winning a massive majority would put Labor on par with the Conservative Party, which has had five prime ministers in less than 10 years.
Powell, one of Burnham’s closest allies, touched on this in his speech, perhaps unknowingly. It was especially the line that received the most applause from the audience.
“I have been saying openly and publicly for the last few weeks that people need to get behind Keir Starmer,” he told them. “We are a Labor team and I don’t want to see this by-election devolve into more infighting and talking about ourselves.” It may already be too late.
