With a stalemate in Ukraine and discontent at home, Putin seems ready to escalate his war
Facing a stalemate on the battlefield in Ukraine and growing war fatigue among Russians President Vladimir Putin looks set to change the narrative around the conflict.
Russia is likely to drastically step up its air strikes on Ukraine’s capital, in the hope that this will boost flagging approval ratings at home and convince an increasingly pessimistic domestic audience that Moscow is winning the war. now in its fifth year.
Russia’s warning Carrying out “consistent and systematic” missile attacks on Kiev, along with calls for foreign embassies to be evacuated from the capital, signals Putin’s intention to expand Russia’s barrage despite heavy costs and potential international outrage.
big drills Attacks on Russia’s nuclear forces earlier this month and a series of aggressive statements by Moscow warning Kiev’s European allies of possible retaliation for their involvement in the Kremlin’s drone strikes in Ukraine underlined Putin’s intention to up the ante.
Ukraine steps up long-range strikes as Russia’s advance stalls
After a series of gains last year, Russia’s advance along a front line stretching more than 1,000 kilometers (600 miles) has recently ground to a near halt, with Ukrainian armed forces launching successful counteroffensives and retaking some ground.
“The character of the war is shifting in favor of Ukrainian forces, at least for now,” the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said in a recent analysis. “While Ukrainian forces are using new tactics and operational concepts to break free from positional warfare, the rate of advancement of Russian forces is stagnating.”
The gridlock on the battlefield undermines Putin’s declared goal of quickly seizing the eastern Donetsk region, which is still under Ukrainian control. Kiev rejected demands to withdraw from the region as a condition for a ceasefire.
At the same time, Ukraine is significantly expanded long range attacks It caused increasing damage to Russia’s energy facilities and weapons factories.
Putin’s reduced Ukraine’s annual May 9 Victory Day parade feared by drone attacks. Days later, a massive drone strike on Moscow’s suburbs killed three people, showing that even the heavily defended capital is not entirely immune to attack and shattering the Kremlin’s efforts to portray the conflict as something distant that does not affect ordinary Russians.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the attacks “significantly changed the situation and, more generally, the world’s perception of Russia’s war.”
Recognizing the growing threat of Ukraine’s deep strike, Russian lawmakers this week approved a bill saying the country’s banks should cover the cost of installing drone jamming systems at their facilities rather than relying on the military.
“From Russia’s perspective, these attacks will only get worse,” said Thomas Withington of the Royal United Services Institute in London. He added that Ukraine’s increasingly bold drone strikes “are imposing not only a political but an economic cost on Russia.”
War hurts Russian economy and morale
Russia’s economy stagnated as the initial boost from massive military spending faded. The government increased taxes and increased domestic borrowing to keep the budget deficit under control. Although the US war in Iran means windfall oil revenues for Russia, fundamental economic difficulties remain.
Putin’s visit to St. Petersburg, an annual event aimed at showcasing Russia’s achievements. He is expected to downplay the negative dynamics at next week’s international economic forum in St. Petersburg.
Nigel Gould-Davies of the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies said in an analysis that “high prices of capital, labor and goods triggered by the war, as well as rising taxes, began to put pressure on civilian sectors,” leading to “a dual economy of overheated military production and civilian stagnation.”
While Russia relied on volunteer soldiers to fight in the war, offering them relatively high wages and other benefits, Gould-Davies argued that “there are signs that this incentive may no longer be working effectively, and that Russia is beginning to lose more soldiers than it can muster.”
To continue the war, he said, the Kremlin would have to mobilize human and material resources by force, which would “restrict the last remaining post-Soviet market freedoms, freedom of labor, and freedom of movement.”
In a sign of growing discontent, some social media influencers previously loyal to the Kremlin Openly criticizing government policies.
The authorities’ move to restrict mobile phone internet and block popular messaging apps has disrupted the daily routines of millions of people, causing open grumbling. Natalya Kasperskaya, a well-known IT entrepreneur and staunch Kremlin supporter, has harshly criticized the shutdowns and attempts to block virtual private networks, warning that they are causing great harm to the technology sector.
Russia expert Tatyana Stanovaya, who founded the R.Politik newsletter focusing on Kremlin policies, pointed out that drone attacks spread in Ukraine, as well as mobile internet outages and increased taxes, damaged Putin’s reputation. Although he does not face an immediate threat to his rule, “the reality is that Putin’s credibility is diminishing,” he said.
In early spring, Russian public opinion polls, including one by a government-run pollster, recorded a decline in Putin’s approval ratings; but those rates rose slightly in May after the state-controlled survey changed its methodology to include face-to-face interviews. Many observers believe the figures may have been inflated due to widespread crackdowns on dissidents.
“Putin is losing his mojo,” Alexander Baunov of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center wrote in a commentary. “Power remains undivided in his hands, but his magic is weakening. Even the loyalists complain of increasing restrictions and pressures, and once-optimistic businessmen are now despairing.”
Russia’s new threats to Ukraine and the West
Putin said that Moscow killed 21 people, citing a drone attack on a university dormitory in Russia-occupied eastern Ukraine on May 22. Massive missile attack on Kiev and its surroundings. Two people were killed, scores were injured and several buildings were destroyed or damaged on Sunday when the barrage involved Russia’s new hypersonic Oreshnik missile.
On Monday, the Russian Foreign Ministry said Moscow would launch “consistent and systematic” attacks on Kiev to target drone production facilities and “decision-making centers.” He called on foreign diplomats to leave the capital, but this request was rejected by Ukraine’s allies.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, warning him about the upcoming attacks and pressing for the evacuation of diplomats.
“The danger that all these wars will continue and continue is that they always have the threat of escalating and expanding into something new,” Rubio told reporters after the meeting.
The Iran war effectively suspended US mediation efforts in Ukraine and emptied American missile arsenals; It delayed the delivery of U.S.-made Patriot missiles that Ukraine desperately needed to fend off Russian attacks.
Moscow-based military analyst Sergei Poletaev said Russia sees the lack of air defense assets in Kiev as an opportunity.
“Kiev’s air defenses are depleted enough to make a major attack effective,” he said in a recent comment.
Accompanying the declared attack on Kiev, Russia launched a barrage of threats targeting Ukraine’s European allies.
The Ministry of Defense has published a list of facilities in Europe that it says produce unmanned aerial vehicles and their components for Ukraine. Moscow’s Foreign Intelligence Service also warned the Baltic states that NATO membership would not protect them from Moscow’s retaliation if they allowed Ukraine to launch attacks from their territory. These allies condemned Moscow’s claims.
“We are actually very, very close to a direct military conflict,” said Dmitry Polyansky, Russia’s envoy to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe.
