New Newspoll shows Queensland voters desert Coalition as One Nation support surges
Queensland has become the Coalition’s biggest electoral headache; Young Australians continue to shy away from conservative parties as new polls show voters are abandoning the Liberals and One Nation Nationals.
An exclusive quarterly Newspoll analysis for The Australian, covering polls from 29 September to 20 November, reveals sharp shifts in voter sentiment across key demographics and states and highlights the challenges Opposition Leader Sussan Ley faces in winning power from Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.
The analysis, conducted ahead of the Bondi Beach terror attack and Labor’s expenses scandal, points to structural weaknesses that the Coalition will need to address over the summer.
Queensland, a key federal battleground, stands out as the epicenter of the party’s decline.
One Nation’s primary vote in Senator Pauline Hanson’s home state rose to 18 per cent in the final three News Polls of the year, while Labor’s support rose to 33 per cent.
By contrast, the Coalition’s primary vote fell by six points to 27 per cent between July and September; most of the lost support flowed to One Nation, who gained eight points.
Nationally, the three-month snapshot hit a historic low for the Coalition in October, with its primary support falling to 24 per cent, the lowest level since Newspoll began tracking the vote in 1985.
The final News Poll of the year, published in late November, showed the Coalition stuck at that level, helping Labor achieve a two-party preferred lead of 58-42 per cent, equal to its largest margin since the May election.
Demographically, older Australians and non-university-educated voters are increasingly shifting from Coalition to One Nation, further exacerbating ongoing difficulties with younger and university-educated voters.
Among 18-34 year olds, Labor’s two-party preferred gap widened to 67-33 per cent, while the Greens’ support reached 26 per cent, seven points ahead of the Coalition.
Among other age groups, Labor maintains a double-digit lead except for the over-65s, whose support was boosted by One Nation’s recruitment of former National leader Barnaby Joyce.
Coalition support fell across both genders in the last quarter, again favoring One Nation.
Ms. Ley’s personal notes remain poor; Only 27 per cent of men and 28 per cent of women were satisfied with his performance, while 60 per cent and 49 per cent were dissatisfied, with a majority seeing Mr Albanese as a better prime minister.
But the Prime Minister recorded his weakest results in Queensland; here, 53 per cent of voters expressed dissatisfaction, despite Labor holding a narrow 52-48 per cent advantage over the two-party preferred.
Labor’s dominance is stronger in other states, including Victoria (60-40), NSW (58-42), WA (56-44) and South Australia (58-42).
As scrutiny mounts over the response to the Bondi attack and concerns about anti-Semitism grow, Coalition strategists see the summer window as a chance for recovery.
MPs returned to Canberra in January after Mr Albanese called parliament early to introduce tougher anti-defamation and hate speech laws.
Since the massacre, Ms Ley has focused on supporting the Jewish-Australian community and called for a royal commission into rising anti-Semitism and the Commonwealth response.
Senior Liberal and National leaders told The Australian that concerns about Islamic extremism and border regulations could strengthen the Coalition platform as it seeks to win back voters who have shifted to One Nation.
