With the Coalition in disarray, Albanese can be brave on policy. But will he?
What is likely to have a lasting impact on our politics starting this week? Interest rate increase? Is the coalition reuniting? Is Angus Taylor casting Sussan Ley? The big big announcement that One Nation is heralding?
So if any of these happen. And then there’s another big “what if” that’s still low-key at the moment. Among the main headlines are small but important clues that the government is heading for major change.
at the end of something profile on friday Australian Financial ReviewALP national secretary Paul Erickson said: “You will see some very significant input from the Prime Minister and the treasurer in the coming months, leading to the budget that will determine this.”
He said the government believes 2026 has a chance for serious reform. Erickson works closely with Anthony Albanese and is not known for exaggerating things.
Now add in the fact that the treasurer himself said last week that he was “impatient for reform.” He called housing the “defining element” of the “intergenerational struggle”, particularly “building more homes for people”. This in itself is not surprising. But remember that the most important area of consensus that emerged from last year’s Economic Reform Summit was to act on the principle of intergenerational equity. Those issues — along with inflation, productivity and resilience — are “the lenses through which we look” at the budget, Jim Chalmers said Saturday. Guard.
The fact that Labor heavy hitters are willing to say such things three and a half months before budget day inspires some confidence in the importance of what is to come. Despite new concerns about inflation, it appears the budget will be more than a steady effort. Housing may play a role.
I’ve written before that prime ministers tend to be habitual – and if you look at Albanese’s first term, it’s the second year he’s attempted tough things with the Voice referendum and changes to stage 3 tax cuts. Labor also cites wanting time to implement changes as a reason for its desire to govern for the long term; In this case, he will want to implement such changes soon. If Labor is to accelerate its ambitions, the most likely date is 2026.
Meanwhile, on Friday, Albanese reached a deal with states that balances the needs of hospitals, the National Disability Insurance Program and support for children needing early intervention.
And all this – the actual announcements, the stories about what the government is doing and what it plans for the coming months – continues as the Coalition tears itself apart.
The coalition’s future is muddy. Andrew Hastie has withdrawn from any upcoming contest, leaving Angus Taylor as the next Liberal leader, but the timeline is unclear. Probably the most obvious fact is that Sussan Ley was never really given a chance by many of her colleagues. Yes, he made mistakes, but the truth is that most of them were pretty minor. And he didn’t do very well in the metrics (polls) that no politician can escape. The coalition’s primary vote has fallen steadily.
But it also influenced me in some ways. At times it appeared he might navigate a path between the right of his party and the demands of modern Australia. He clearly outlined conservative positions while avoiding some of the worst rhetorical excesses. He put pressure on the government on spending and then played his part in getting the royal commission to back down after Bondi. Leading a divided party against a rising government, these are remarkable achievements.
But he still never seemed to be accepted as a legitimate leader. Some of this has to do with being a woman in a male-dominated party; It would be naive to think otherwise. A lot of this has to do with his moderation. You could see a similar force at work when Malcolm Turnbull was prime minister. Conservatives simply did not trust him. He sometimes followed their orders, but they judged these actions to be hollow.
Scott Morrison could have done so much more, including leading his party to net zero, because the right wing of his party believed he was one of them. Taylor will have the same advantage if he takes over.
This points to the real problem that troubles both sides in the (former) Coalition. Much of politics on the right has become about identity. You are judged not by the quality of your policies, but by what your colleagues believe is in your heart; and what is in your heart is judged by how strictly you adhere to certain positions.
Negotiation and compromise are always possible when a politician’s main concern is to achieve a good outcome on policy. Adjustments can be made. But when policies become merely a means of reflecting a particular political identity, compromise is not allowed, as doing so runs the risk of being perceived as compromising yourself. This is what Hastie discovered when he and his colleagues voted to support Labour’s hate speech laws: the Conservative base saw it not as pragmatic policy but as a despicable betrayal.
That’s why it’s hard to see a world in the near future where Liberals and Nationals will work well together: Nationals competing with One Nation cannot compromise when they focus on preserving an abstract political identity.
Former Liberal strategist Tony Barry wrote last week Both sides needed “a significant change of internal mentality.” He argued that the coalition should focus on economic management and housing issues. John Howard’s former chief of staff, Arthur Sinodinos, focused on the following in a separate article: same two topics.
Are these the issues Labor is working on while the Coalition is busy shouting at itself? An odd feature of Taylor’s possible rise is that Chalmers could be accused of attacking the government once he is in the spotlight. As shadow treasurer in the previous term, Taylor was ineffective against Chalmers. This time around, Chalmers may also have a big advantage on the policies Taylor needs to influence most.
Sean Kelly is the author of The Game: A Portrait of Scott Morrison, regular columnist and former advisor to Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd.
Sean Kelly is the author of The Game: A Portrait of Scott Morrison, regular columnist and former advisor to Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd.Connect with: X.
