World Cup could boost the June jobs report by 40,000, Goldman estimates

Thursday’s June employment report may be stronger than expected due to a strong hit from the World Cup, according to Goldman Sachs.

Nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by 115,000, according to the Dow Jones consensus of surveyed economists; this would be a step below May’s strong growth of 172,000.

But Goldman said private data from small business payroll company Homebase showed the “Beautiful Game” had at least a modest impact on hiring, contributing about 40,000 positions last month.

The firm’s latest report shows that while the hiring pace decreased overall in June, the 11 cities hosting the World Cup experienced a 1.2% decline compared to the previous year, while other cities experienced a 3.5% decline. What’s more, Homebase’s data showed hospitality industry hiring increased by 9.5%; This is a possible increase related to the World Cup.

“Our historical analysis shows that the World Cup could boost employment growth by 40,000 in June, and its impact should be concentrated in the leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and trade and transportation sectors,” Goldman economists Ronnie Walker and Jessica Rindels wrote in a note. he said.

As a result, Goldman expects total nonfarm employment growth to be 140,000; This figure is still down from the previous month, but significantly better than the 20,000 jobs lost in June 2025.

Goldman also said that number could be higher because June payrolls are trending upward in the first of three estimates. The initial June number has been revised lower in each of the last four years.