World Cup group stage nears the end with high-stakes matches and betting opportunities across four games

I was pretty good at football yesterday. I had three games and won 2-1 that day. Looking back, I probably should have placed a full unit on my most confident bet: Both teams to score in the Canada game. There’s a big card for the World Cup today as we try to get to the final matches of the group stage. Let’s place some bets on these games.

Ecuador – Germany

Ecuador needs to win if it wants to advance. Germany has already secured its place in the next round. What do you do when one team’s fate is locked in and the other needs a win to survive? Germany are a much better team, but most teams tend to rest their players after they have taken care of business. Ecuador still hasn’t scored a goal in this World Cup; They lost their first match 1-0 and drew 0-0 in their second match. I think Ecuador will probably take their chances, but their team also has a chance to grab total money under 0.5 goals at +149. Even after resting their best players, Germany allowed just four shots on target in two games. I’ll take a shot.

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Japan vs Sweden

This is the most important match of the day. This has huge implications for the next round, but it also pits two better teams against each other. Japan leads if they win or draw. The Netherlands’ win and loss also means they won Group F. Defeat means they have to hope for third place. A win for Sweden means they will get past Japan and advance to the next round. A defeat would probably eliminate them and a draw would give them the same fate as Sweden. I think this will be a very strategic and cautious match for both teams. Give me under 2.5 at the risk.

Team USA celebrates scoring a goal against Paraguay during their 2026 FIFA World Cup Group D match at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. (Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images)

Türkiye vs. United States

If you’ve been living under a rock, you probably don’t realize that the United States has advanced to the next round. They lost 2-0 in the World Cup for the first time since 1930. This game has no meaning for them other than pride. Turkey lost both matches 1-0 to Paraguay and 2-0 to Australia. The United States beat both of these teams with relative ease. The only reason Türkiye has a chance at some point in this game is because the USA has already stated that they will probably rest a lot of key guys for the next game. I think the reserves can still beat Türkiye. Give me the United States at -115. I like both teams to score but -170 is too expensive for me.

Australia – Paraguay

Nestory Irananunda from Australia reacts during the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group D match between the USA and Australia at Seattle Stadium on June 19, 2026 in Seattle, Washington. (Jared C. Tilton/FIFA via Getty Images)

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This is a game very similar to the game between Japan and Sweden. Australia’s victory will automatically qualify them for the Round of 32. Paraguay will also share the same fate with the victory. A draw would give Australia second place and put them ahead because they have a better goal difference than Paraguay. So actually Paraguay needs to win. Australia can win or draw and advance. I think a draw is the most likely option at +130, but Paraguay is likely to take more chances in this match. This may open them up to some exposure. Give me Australia to win at +340. To be clear, this is a full throw based on value rather than me being confident they will win.

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Follow David on X/Twitter for more sports betting information and games: @futureprez2024