‘Worst nightmare’: anger and frustration as Gulf states bear brunt of war they did not start | US-Israel war on Iran

A.It’s eerily quiet in Ras Al Khaimah’s industrial port. Often a thriving maritime hub of the United Arab Emirates, this area now lies docked and quiet. In recent days, hundreds of tankers had lined up along the misty horizon, stalled along a treacherous waterway.

Any ship passing Ras Al Khaimah and heading to the Arabian Sea must cross the world’s most dangerous stretch of water for shipping today: the Strait of Hormuz. Two oil tankers heading towards the strait, just over 20 nautical miles from Ras Al Khaimah, came under attack from Iranian missiles this week, and one caught fire.

Fujairah, the main oil port on the UAE’s east coast, on Saturday was targeted by drone The attack saw thick black smoke rising from the terminal.

This is one of the many consequences Gulf states face as they drift further into a war they did not start and are diplomatically trying to prevent.

For decades, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Oman have allowed US military bases, infrastructure or access on their territory and have been among the largest buyers of American weapons and technology. In contrast, the United States stood as the Gulf’s closest and most important military partner and protector.

But analysts say Gulf states have increased concerns about the relationship after Donald Trump appeared to have deliberately undermined peaceful diplomatic negotiations in favor of starting a war in the Middle East.

“The perceived Iranian threat to the Gulf only became reality when the United States declared war; Iran was not the first to fire,” says Khaled Almezaini, associate professor of politics and international relations at Zayed University in Abu Dhabi. “There is a strong condemnation of the Iranians, but there is also a message to the Americans and the Israelis that we have to find a way to end this. This is not our war.”

In the weeks before the attacks, Gulf leaders hosted talks and repeatedly made overtures to the US president, insisting that attacking Iran would have serious consequences for regional security. But there is widespread belief that Trump chose to carry out these attacks without consulting or warning Gulf allies.

While the Gulf was expected to face a backlash, the scale of Iran’s revenge campaign shocked many. Gulf states had assured Tehran that none of its bases would be used in attacks, but that did not stop Iran from launching thousands of drones and missiles targeting airports, military bases, oil refineries, ports, hotels and office buildings.

Aviation in the region remains highly restricted, with airlines losing billions of dollars. As Bahrain faces an economic crisis, the UAE’s reputation as a haven for tourism and western investment has taken a serious blow. States successfully repulse most Iranian missiles and drones, but interceptors and air defense systems cost countries like the UAE more than $2bn (£1.5bn).

Iran’s violent blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the only maritime passage that connects the Gulf to the open ocean and through which one-fifth of global energy supplies are transported, has led to a severe decline in the oil and gas exports that finance the Gulf economies. Experts estimate that oil exports lose between 700 and 1.2 billion dollars every day.

“UAE and Gulf Cooperation Council [Gulf Cooperation Council] “He tried to prevent the United States from declaring this war because he knew the consequences,” Almezaini says, noting the threats made by the Iranian foreign minister only months ago about closing the strait, and adding, “Now exactly this scenario is happening.”

Allison Minor, director of the Atlantic Council’s Middle East integration project, says the asymmetry in the Gulf’s military partnership with the United States has never been starker. Israel launched airstrikes on Qatar, another US Gulf ally, only in September, but this did not lead to any concrete action by Washington.

“The most fundamental question is consultation,” he says. “Are the Gulf states really able to obtain the kind of partnership and security support they think is necessary if the United States intervenes militarily in the region?”

On Thursday, Omani foreign minister Badr bin Hamad al-Busaidi, who has mediated previous Iran-US talks, made some of his strongest comments yet on the conflict.

“Oman’s view [is] “The military attacks of the United States and Israel against Iran are illegal and the states that started this war are violating international law as long as they continue hostilities,” he said.

Al Busaidi said the US decision to strike Iran, while peaceful negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program are making progress, shows that the conflict is merely an attempt to realign the Middle East in Israel’s favor.

Analysts emphasize that many Gulf states find themselves in a contradictory position: trying to lower the temperature of the war while pressuring the United States to finish the job in Iran and ensure that they are not left with the worst-case scenario – a weakened, wounded and unstable Islamic republic on their doorstep.

“This is the Gulf’s worst nightmare,” says Sanam Vakil, director of Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa program. “There is deep anger and frustration with the United States because this is not their issue.” [the Gulf states’] Even though there is a war, they bear the brunt.” Vakil said Gulf countries have long maintained a security partnership with the United States similar to Israel’s, but they now realize “that may never happen.”

But while he acknowledges the need to diversify security partners, he adds that he currently has no alternative as the ultimate guardian of the Gulf.

“The Gulf will not and cannot move quickly to find an alternative to the United States. But they also will not double down with an unreliable partner,” he says. “It will likely move more quickly in its pursuit of strategic autonomy, which is already on the horizon.”

Despite all the geopolitical consequences, the economic effects were also reflected in ordinary life. Sumon, 27, standing at the boat and jet ski rental company where he works at the marina next to Ras Al Khaimah port, says business is disrupted because no boats are allowed to go to sea by the coast guard.

“Due to all these problems and the fights at sea with Iran, our boats and jet skis have not been allowed to set sail for days,” he says. “This is very bad news, we have no customers and my boss can’t pay me.” Sumon points to the harbor opposite: “No boats are moving anymore. No one knows when it will end.”