$11 billion upgrade announced to extend fleet lifespan as Australia awaits nuclear vessels
Australia’s aging Collins-class submarines will receive $11 billion worth of upgrades from next month as the navy extends their lives while waiting for its first nuclear submarines to arrive from the United States.
The Collins-class submarines, which have had a troubled history throughout their lifetimes, need to be upgraded because the first of the US-built Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines will not arrive until about 2032 and senior Trump administration and Pentagon officials have expressed reservations about the deal with Australia and Britain.
Last month, a UK parliamentary review expressed serious reservations about whether Britain has the capacity to build Australia’s bespoke SSN-AUKUS class submarines by the early 2040s, noting that “the cracks are already starting to show when it comes to funding”.
Earlier this month, while Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi was visiting Australia, former senior defense official Richard Gray called on the federal government to consider leasing conventional diesel submarines from Japan as a plan B to avoid a capacity shortfall.
There are concerns within the government that, although US President Donald Trump approved the submarine agreement last year, there are important figures within the administration, such as Undersecretary of Defense Elbridge Colby, who oppose the agreement.
Defense Secretary Richard Marles criticized the former Coalition government for predicting in its 2020 force structure plan that type life extensions to the Collins boats would cost around $6 billion, rather than the more realistic $11 billion.
The need to extend the life of the Collins class has been reviewed by successive governments and predates the decision to sign the AUKUS agreement with the US and UK.
Marles announced the extension on Tuesday. This will increase the lifespan of the boats by up to 10 years and will include drydocking the ships to upgrade critical weapons systems.
In 2024, the government has signaled it will extend the life of submarines by another decade, but will now scale upgrades based on what it calls a “conditions-based sustainability approach.”
“These decisions reaffirm the Albanian government’s determination to maintain the Collins class as a powerful and highly capable offensive and deterrent capacity today and for years to come,” Marles said in a speech to the Lowy Institute think tank.
“Extending the life of all six Collins-class submarines is critical to maintaining this edge as the Navy transitions from conventional submarines to nuclear-powered submarines.”
HMAS Farncomb, one of the oldest of the six submarines, will be the first boat to undergo overhaul.
After the speech, Marles said it was “unthinkable” that Australia would lack long-range submarine capacity and that the $368 billion AUKUS agreement would be the solution when the Collins-class submarines expire.
“We have no choice but to do this,” he told the audience during a question-and-answer session. “I mean, to accept that Australia would not operate this platform would really be to diminish our sovereignty. This is by far the most important capability we have.”
“There seems to be almost a kind of disbelief at the idea that this could actually happen, but the fact of the matter is that AUKUS is now being pursued with great vigor by each of the three participating countries.”
Richard Gray, senior fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, wrote: Hedging Our Bets The report on the Japanese submarine option said the announcement “means it will take longer, be more expensive and offer less submarine capability.”
“It may seem unusual for the cost to increase this much, but it is almost certain that this increase in cost is due to greatly increased maintenance on largely unchanged boats.”
University of Western Australia assistant professor Jennifer Parker said the upgrade was necessary, but “Collins’ capacity will be reduced, it already is, and it will be used to train submarines for the Virginia class.” [The Collins’] “The ability to operate away from Australian shores will be reduced.”
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James Massola is the chief political commentator. He was previously national affairs editor and Southeast Asia correspondent. He won the Quill and Kennedy awards and was a Walkley finalist. Connect securely to Signal @jamesmassola.01Connect with: X or email.
Brittany Busch is the federal politics correspondent for The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald.Connect via email.
