Why Vauban will win the race on his third attempt
As an eternal optimist, I trust the adage that being here for the third time with Vauban is a charm. The former Melbourne Cup favorite returns this year as an “Australian” challenger, joining Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott’s team after last year’s unsuccessful Cup run.
Since Empire Rose won the Melbourne Cup at her third attempt in 1988, Vauban enters the race with a completely different lead and will not have to get off the plane from Ireland and race straight into the race, which clearly has not worked before.
Vauban (left) will attempt to win the Cup by competing in the race for the third time on Tuesday.Credit: Getty Images
The key here is that the horse can be deceptive. It had a habit of falling to pieces in the garden. He had already run his race when he reached the famous 3200 meter start.
This is something Gai and Adrian have worked tirelessly on and is a tribute to the riding skills of the “First Lady of Racing”. I’ve seen this horse at races in Sydney more times than I can count; I spent a day out to gain experience and after stopping at the tying stands I returned home without running.
Gai says Vauban is a different horse now with his attitude, although he still has his quirks.
Will this change in behavior and the natural mental maturity that comes with being another year older help his chances of winning this big race? I think so too.
Combine this with a nice draw at the second fence where he could maintain his midfield position. The stars are starting to align with top jockey Blake Shinn, who won the race in 2008 with Viewed (the horse I drew in the Cup race as a young girl).
He looks like a horse whose best chance comes when he’s cold, and the barrier gives him that chance.
