After Indus Waters, Is It Time For India To Rethink The Farakka Treaty With Bangladesh? | Analysis | India News

India’s decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan following the Pahalgam terror attack in 2025 has reopened a larger debate in New Delhi: Should decades-old water-sharing arrangements continue unchanged as geopolitical realities and domestic needs have fundamentally changed? In this context, the Bharat-Bangladesh Farakka Water Agreement, signed in 1996, came under re-examination, especially at a time when anti-India rhetoric by some sections of Bangladesh’s political structure was increasing.

A Treaty Born in a Different Age

The Farakka Water Agreement was drafted during a period of relative warming in India-Bangladesh relations. Both sides sought to resolve long-standing disputes over the Farakka Dam, which India built to divert Ganga waters to the Hooghly River to maintain the Kolkata Port. For Bangladesh, this agreement was both an assurance and a protection; It ensured that upriver India was not denied dry season water critical for agriculture, fisheries and livelihoods.

The agreement laid out a detailed allocation schedule from January to May, dividing water flows every ten days. When flows exceed 70,000 cusecs, Bangladesh will be guaranteed 35,000 cusecs while the rest will be given to India. When flows fall below this threshold, the waters are shared equally. But the agreement contains a glaring weakness: It does not offer minimum guaranteed flows during extreme drought, only mandating “emergency consultations” if levels fall below 50,000 cusecs.

Changing Facts, Increasing Conflicts

While the arrangement has functioned for years, stress fractures can now occur. Bangladesh has repeatedly accused India of water shortages during the peak farming months, especially March and April; These claims are supported by numerous flow evaluations over the last two decades. On the contrary, India argues that the agreement is becoming increasingly unfair.

The agreement was based on river flow data from 1949 to 1988; These figures no longer reflect today’s hydro-climatic realities. Erratic monsoon rains, retreat of Himalayan glaciers and increased consumption have dramatically changed the behavior of the Ganges. Water demand has almost doubled on both sides of the border, with Indian states such as West Bengal and Bihar facing acute water shortages.

Leverage, Diplomacy and Strategic Signaling

When the deal is scheduled to expire in 2026, New Delhi is reportedly considering a shorter renewal of 10-15 years instead of a 30-year term. The logic is clear: In an age of climate uncertainty and increasing geopolitical competition, resilience is essential.

Reports claim that India has informed Dhaka of the need for more than 30,000 additional cusecs to meet development and agricultural requirements, indicating a significant shift. Such a demand will inevitably reduce Bangladesh’s share, affecting its agriculture and industry; This may force Dhaka’s interim leadership under Muhammad Younis to re-evaluate its political messaging and diplomatic stance towards India.

The message from Delhi is becoming clearer; Water diplomacy, like security cooperation, cannot be separated from broader bilateral behavior. In a region where goodwill cannot be taken for granted, India appears poised to recalibrate agreements to reflect both national interests and changing ground realities.