Heatwave engulfs south-eastern states as Victoria faces catastrophic fire conditions not seen since Black Summer | Environment

Severe bushfire conditions threatened the south-eastern states on Friday as unrelenting temperatures gripped much of Australia and Victorians braced for catastrophic conditions not seen since 2019-20.

Catastrophic and extreme fire danger ratings were in place across Victoria and the entire state was under a total fire ban. Extreme conditions were expected across much of South Australia and the New South Wales Riverina.

The maximum temperature is predicted to reach 43 degrees in Melbourne and 45 degrees in some suburbs.

Victoria’s emergency management commissioner Tim Wiebusch said the fires were expected to be “unpredictable, uncontrollable and fast-moving” as extreme heat combined with the risk of damaging winds and dry lightning.

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Major fire danger was expected for Victoria’s north central, rural north, south-west and Wimmera regions. The central region, which includes Melbourne and Geelong, was approaching disaster, with a fire danger rating of 99 (100 or more is considered disaster).

Fires were already burning in several states, including out-of-control bushfires at Longwood and Walwa in Victoria.

CFA chief officer Jason Heffernan warned that conditions on Friday would be “terrible”, including potential winds of up to 100km per hour.

A total fire ban was imposed in the whole of Victoria, 11 of 15 fire zones in South Australia and four in NSW (eastern and southern Riverina, Monaro Alps and Southern Slopes).

Heatwave warnings remained in place for all states and territories except Queensland.

The Bureau of Meteorology predicted daytime temperatures would be 12-16C above average across much of south-eastern Australia.

Sarah Scully, a senior meteorologist at the bureau, said many places recorded the hottest temperature for January on Thursday. These included Renmark in the SA Riverland town reaching 47.3°C and Loxton at 46.2°C, as well as Hopetoun (46.3°C) in Victoria’s Mallee.

Tarcoola, in SA’s far north, reached 48.2C on Thursday.

After several days of extreme daytime temperatures and extremely hot nights, there was little relief for people in areas affected by the heatwave. For example, Renmark’s minimum temperature overnight was 30.9C.

“So people need to take action to stay cool, stay hydrated and stay indoors as much as possible,” Scully said.

The capital’s forecast for Friday:

• Melbourne: Windy. Late cool change, possible thunderstorms, maximum 43C.

• Canberra: sunny, maximum 39C.

• Adelaide: Mostly sunny, maximum 32C.

• Sydney: sunny, maximum 33C.

• Darwin: showers, storms, maximum 33C.

• Perth: partly cloudy, maximum 29C.

• Brisbane: Shower possible, maximum 29C.

• Hobart: One or two showers, 25C max.

A cool change was expected to pass through southwestern Victoria in the early afternoon, reaching Melbourne between 6pm and 7pm.

Scully said the front would push heat and gusty winds towards south-east NSW, causing high temperatures and extreme fire dangers in parts of the state on Saturday, with 42C forecast for Sydney.

Tasmania was also expecting a high fire risk, with the Tasmanian Fire Service declaring a total fire ban for the state’s south and the Furneaux Islands from Saturday.

Adjunct Professor Andrew Watkins, a climate expert at Monash University, said it was unusual to have such extreme heat and fire conditions after a La Niña summer and a strong negative of the Indian Ocean dipole.

“Normally we would be more concerned about flooding under the influence of these climate factors,” he said. “But two factors played a big role in 2025/26, including the strongest stratospheric warming over Antarctica since 2019 and climate change.”

Northeast Queensland is under a severe weather warning and flood watches and warnings due to the threat of a tropical low developing into a tropical cyclone.

As of 4 a.m. Friday morning, the low was about 60 miles offshore; The sustained wind was 55 km/h and the gusts were up to 85 km/h. The system was expected to make a sharp turn southwards today, heading towards Townsville; There was a “moderate” chance it would gather enough strength to be classified as a hurricane when it crossed the coast over the weekend.

Australia experienced this Fourth hottest year on record in 2025According to BoM, average temperatures across the country rose to 1.23C.

The climate crisis has increased the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, including heat waves and wildfires.