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Movie sequels are falling flat

Moviegoers will encounter many familiar productions on the big screen this year. It may not be enough to save the box office.

New cast members from popular movie franchises will dominate the movie slate over the next 12 months. The 2026 calendar includes releases from Star Wars, Marvel, DC Comics, Toy Story, Super Mario Bros., The Hunger Games, Scream, Scary Movie, Minions, Dune and Jumanji.

Intellectual property rights like these established franchises have long been an important part of Hollywood, but they’re increasingly vital in 2026 as the theater industry attempts to surpass $10 billion in domestic box office for the first time since the pandemic.

However, some famous productions do not attract as many crowds as they used to, and people in the industry are worried that the reference figure of $10 billion will not be reached this year for the post-pandemic industry, which has been shaken by the halt of production, the merger of major studios and the shift of consumers to listening online.

“Confidence in franchises has gotten a little trickier in the last few years,” said Alicia Reese, senior vice president of equity research at Wedbush. “Yes, there is some certainty… but it’s not a count. It will never become a number from now on, because people are pickier than before. They know what’s going to happen. Word of mouth means more than ever.”

According to Comscore’s data, the top 10 highest-grossing films domestically since 2010 have mainly been franchise films. During this time, eight to 10 of the films released each year were sequels, prequels, or remakes. The only outlier was 2020, when seven of the top 10 films were franchise-based due to the number of films postponed during Covid shutdowns.

And of course, some of the original games that hit the top 10 have become franchises over the past two decades. Check out “Avatar,” “Frozen,” “Zootopia,” “Inside Out,” “The Secret Life of Pets” and “Ted.”

“Studios clearly feel that the convenience of the audience — going to see a movie where they kind of already know what they’re going to get before entering the auditorium — is a bet worth making,” said Paul Dergarabedian, head of market trends at Comscore.

Box office sales become more dependent on the success of these franchise films as studios rely on the security of a built-in audience.

Before the pandemic, the top 10 films from 2010-2019 represented an average of 30% of the total annual domestic box office. What left the group behind was that these films accounted for nearly 40% of annual sales in the 2019 calendar. All 10 films that year were IP-driven, with nine of them grossing more than $1 billion worldwide.

The average percentage of the total domestic box office revenue of the top 10 films after the pandemic was 44%.

“I remember having this conversation in the late ’90s,” said Eric Handler, managing director and senior research analyst at Roth Capital Partners. “The box office has been franchise-focused for the last few decades. That’s just the way it is. Why? Because when there’s familiarity with the content, people have a better chance of showing up because there’s an affinity for a particular franchise and it’s already known.”

Now Hollywood faces the harsh reality of what happens when franchises fail.

great expectations

Two of the most anticipated movies to be released last year: Universal’s “Wicked: For Good” and Disney’s “Avatar: Fire and Ash” performed below expectations.

The first “Wicked” movie, released in 2024, grossed $475 million at the domestic box office and just over $750 million worldwide during its theatrical release. A year later, the duo’s second installment has collected just under $350 million from the US and Canada, and about $525 million worldwide.

Box office analysts attributed the decrease in ticket sales to the decline in quality between the first and second installments. “Wicked” received an 88% “Fresh” rating on review aggregator Rotten Tomatoes, while “Wicked: For Good” received a 66% rating.

“Avatar: Fire and Ash” had even bigger shoes to fill. James Cameron’s hit movie “Avatar”, released in 2009, grossed $785.2 million domestically and $2.1 billion abroad. It remains the highest-grossing film of all time at the box office, with $2.9 billion in ticket sales.

More than a decade later, “Avatar: The Path of Water” was released in theaters and earned $688.8 million domestically and $1.6 billion internationally, bringing its total gross to $2.3 billion.

But by the time “Fire and Ashes” hit theaters in December, consumer demand wasn’t that high and the appeal of Cameron’s groundbreaking shooting techniques had worn off. “Fire and Ash”, which is still showing in cinemas, grossed only $378.5 million domestically as of Sunday, while it exceeded $1 billion internationally.

Wedbush’s Reese said part of the problem may be trying to mine too much from any one franchise.

Take Disney’s Marvel Cinematic Universe, for example. The film franchise has been a blockbuster for nearly two decades, but has struggled to produce sequels of consistent quality following 2019’s thrilling “Avengers: Endgame.” It also flooded the streaming market with a dozen new television series.

“If you try to make it too thin and don’t pay the same level of attention to detail, then it’s not going to work,” Reese said.

He also said there is risk in trying to expand a niche interest into a global success. Do filmmakers stay close to the original intellectual property and play to its base, or are they shooting for a wider audience and greater impact?

Sandworms appear on the desert planet Arrakis in Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune: Part Two.”

Warner Bros. | Legendary Entertainment

Reese noted Warner Bros.’ The new Dune series, starring Timothée Chalamet and directed by Denis Villeneuve, is a good example of a series that pierces the needle, reaching fans who already love the books and attracting new audiences at the same time.

“If it’s a good movie, it serves the core audience and can bring in some new ones and have broader appeal,” Reese said. “But if you try to attract that broad appeal and you don’t serve your core fans, they’re going to turn against you. That’s going to cause big problems, because if they don’t like the movie, everyone else is going to find out and they’re not going to go, right?”

More than a movie

Since Covid almost completely shut down the film industry in early 2020, the number of films produced for theatrical release has decreased.

As studios produce fewer films, they become increasingly reliant on what they perceive as safe bets of tried-and-true intellectual property.

94 films were released in more than 2,000 locations in 2024; this is a 20% decrease from 120 wide releases in 2019. This decline was also reflected in box office results, which dropped approximately 23% from the $11.4 billion recorded in 2019.

In 2025, 112 films were released, down about 6.6% from 2019 levels, but the box office still lagged by more than 20%.

Hollywood analysts point to several factors to explain why the domestic box office continues to decline.

There is a dearth of theatrical content, especially films in the mid-budget range ($15 million to $90 million). Many of these films, which tend to be dramas, comedies, romantic comedies and thrillers, have moved to streaming because they are cheaper to produce and help fill digital libraries with new content.

At the same time, consumers have become more selective about what they watch, and the home entertainment space has resulted in in-home technology evolving to make it easier to stay on the couch.

Therefore, studios and theater owners began to “enable” film screenings; they promote films as must-sees in premium large-format theaters such as IMAX, Dolby Cinema, Screen X or 4DX; sell special products such as popcorn buckets and beverage sips, as well as limited-time food options; and hosting events related to the film’s release, such as making friendship bracelets for the Taylor Swift concert film screening.

Often the easiest movies to promote this way are those based on well-known franchises.

When “Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale” was released in theaters last year, the Alamo Drafthouse hosted fancy dress screenings, encouraging moviegoers to come dressed in period-appropriate attire. The event featured a costume contest and themed drinks and food. The theater chain has hosted similar events for screenings of James Bond and Star Wars movies and will host an event for the upcoming “Wuthering Heights” adaptation as well.

And these franchises aren’t just shown in movie theaters. Many major movie studios also have their own consumer products and experience divisions that rely on theatrical content not only to sell products but also to fuel theme park designs, live events, and even cruise ships.

Franchise fans are hungry for products that celebrate and showcase their favorite characters or movie moments. This can manifest itself in everything from clothing, bedding, kitchenware, and bumper stickers to seasonal items like collectibles, luxury watches, electronics, and ornaments.

Disney, Star Wars, Marvel, The Muppets, Cars, The Incredibles, Toy Story and Monsters Inc. He has built theme park attractions, rides, and cruise ship items based on Pixar films such as , as well as Disney Animation properties such as Frozen, Zootopia, Moana, The Lion King, and The Little Mermaid.

New Toy Story Land at Disney’s Hollywood Studio

Source: Orlando’s Courtesy Visit

Comcast’s Universal, too, has stocked its theme parks with its own properties (Jurassic Park, Minions, The Secret Life of Pets, The Dark Universe, and How to Train Your Dragon) as well as licensed franchises like Harry Potter and Nintendo’s Wizarding World.