What happens if Trump pushes to seize Kharg Island
General view of the Kharg Island Oil Terminal Port in Iran on March 12, 2017, 25 km from the Iranian coast in the Persian Gulf and 483 km northwest of the Strait of Hormuz.
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The US’s move to seize Kharg Island, a strategically vital center known as Iran’s “oil lifeblood”, is considered to be an extremely high risk, both geopolitically and economically.
The five-mile-long coral island, located in the waters of the northern Persian Gulf about 25 miles off the coast of mainland Iran, remained untouched during nearly two weeks of U.S.- and Israeli-led attacks on Iran.
Trump administration is discussing taking over the island, according to a report action report on March 7, citing four anonymous sources with knowledge of the discussions. CNBC has contacted the White House and is awaiting a response.
Kharg Island has become a focus of global attention as it is considered one of Iran’s most sensitive economic targets. The terminal accounts for approximately 90% of the country’s crude exports and has a loading capacity of approximately 7 million barrels per day.
Analysts say any attack or takeover attempt would require a ground military operation, which the United States appears reluctant to undertake. A possible attack could also cause a sustained increase in already high oil prices.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had previously refused to rule out the deployment of American ground forces to Iran but said the US would not remain stalemated in the country.
Francis Galgano, an associate professor at Villanova University in Pennsylvania and an expert in military geography and environmental security, said Kharg Island’s location is important because it is in deep water that allows oil supertankers to approach.
“I will put on my war hat… if the goal is to win the war (quickly), destroy or capture Kharg immediately,” Galgano told CNBC via email, adding that such an initiative would create maximum influence on Tehran.
However, Galgano said taking the small island would be no easy feat. “This would require the movement of a significant number of ground combat troops into the area… I estimate there are around 5,000 men to capture and hold the island.”
He added: “All of this affects global oil markets, of course, but they are already being affected.”
Oil prices have been extremely volatile since the US and Israel launched an air strike on Iran on February 28. Iran has retaliated by targeting ships attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, with multiple incidents reported in recent days.
The narrow waterway is an important maritime corridor connecting the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Roughly 20% of global oil and gas typically passes through here.
International benchmark Brent crude futures for May delivery were traded at $99.45 per barrel, down 1% on Friday, while US West Texas Intermediate futures for April delivery were last seen at $93.81, down 2%.
If Kharg Island is disabled, analysts JPMorgan The loss of Iran’s storage buffer and scarcity of viable export alternatives “will rapidly trigger upstream closures in major southwestern fields,” he said.
“With production around 3.3 million barrels and exports around 1.5 million barrels, almost half of national production could be at risk if the hub goes offline, and the previously assumed 20-day buffer will disappear from day one,” a note published on Sunday said. they said.
Security check
Richard Goldberg, a senior adviser at the Foundation, a nonprofit research institute considered hawkish on Iran, said he understands the hesitancy to do anything that could halt Iran’s oil production at a time when markets are nervous and the potential for regime change is still at play.
“This could change quickly once we regain security control of the Strait of Hormuz and we will have a clearer picture of whether the regime can remain in power for some time,” Goldberg told CNBC via email.
“At this point we absolutely need to consider disabling the export terminal or otherwise cutting off the regime’s financial lifeline indefinitely,” he added.
Satellite image of Kharg Island, located off the coast of Iran in the Persian Gulf.
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US President Donald Trump on Friday said there was no imminent end to the Iran war and that America “has the ammunition and plenty of time” to continue fighting.
His comments came just after Iran’s new supreme leader, Mujtaba Khamenei, also struck a defiant tone, insisting that the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed as “a tool to put pressure on the enemy.”
Iran’s massive scale and mountainous topography mean that the United States would need hundreds of thousands of troops to mobilize any conventional ground forces in the region. based on Alex Plitsas, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank.
“Any use of ground forces would likely be limited to special operations forces for specific missions,” Plitsas said in a note Wednesday, without specifically mentioning Iran’s Kharg Island. he said.
— CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
