Stock and oil futures surged just MINUTES before Trump’s post about Iran… as trading expert points finger at insider knowledge

Stock and oil futures exploded in a sudden and unexplained burst of trading just minutes before President Donald Trump announced a market-moving update on Iran on Monday morning.

At approximately 6:50 a.m. in New York, S&P 500 e-mini futures on CME recorded a sharp and highly unusual increase in volume, breaking away from the normally quiet premarket session, CNBC reported.

Almost simultaneously, West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures also saw a spike in activity, disrupting typically weak trading conditions in the early morning hours.

Then, about 15 minutes later at 7:05 a.m., Trump posted on Truth Social that the United States had begun talks with Iran and halted planned attacks on Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure.

S&P 500 futures rose more than 2.5 percent before the opening bell, while oil prices fell and West Texas Intermediate futures fell nearly 6 percent immediately afterward.

Coordinated movements between stocks and crude oil meant that anyone who bought stock futures and shorted or shorted oil contracts a few minutes ago would make significant gains.

It was this precise timing and the lack of any public announcement before Trump’s post that upset investors and sparked scrutiny.

This sequence now raises questions about whether someone acted with prior knowledge of the president’s announcement.

An LED globe screen shows information at prediction market online platform Polymarket’s new location called ‘The Situation Room’ on its opening day last week

The transactions were detected by Unusual Whales, an X account that specializes in tracking ‘unusual’ trading activity

The transactions were detected by X account Unusual Whales, which specializes in tracking ‘unusual’ trading activity.

‘Just five minutes before Trump announced that he would stop attacks on Iran, a large amount of trading was reported in the market. In the account, 1.5 billion dollars of S&P 500 (ES) futures contracts were purchased in one move, while 192 million dollars of oil (CL) futures contracts were sold.

‘These orders were 4-6 times larger than other orders at the time. The merchant apparently made huge profits. ‘Unusual.’

Futures markets in the early morning hours are typically thinly traded, which means large orders can surge more dramatically than during normal hours; But what seemed striking was the size and coordination of transactions in the two major markets.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and CME Group did not comment on the activity.

Some analysts have warned that algorithmic or macro-focused trading strategies can create sudden flows without a clear headline trigger.

Still, the aggressive positioning pattern that comes on the heels of a major geopolitical announcement has intensified speculation that some traders may have been informed before the news was made public.

This suspicion is now further strengthened by parallel activity in the rapidly growing world of prediction markets, where bets on geopolitical events are increasingly scrutinized.

At 7:05 a.m., Donald Trump posted on Truth Social about US-Iran talks and stopping planned attacks. S&P 500 futures rose more than 2.5% following the announcement. Oil fell 6 percent

Shayne Coplan, pictured, is the CEO and founder of Polymarket, the platform for profitable betting.

Traders who bought stock futures and previously shorted oil could make significant profits

On crypto-based platform Polymarket, a cluster of newly created accounts placed unusually large bets on the possibility of a US-Iran ceasefire over the weekend.

The eight accounts, all reportedly created around March 21, collectively deposited nearly $70,000 toward a ceasefire that would take place before March 31.

If successful, these bets could be worth close to $820,000.

The timing of these bets has raised eyebrows among analysts, particularly as it coincides with changing signals from Trump, who has been back and forth with increasing rhetoric in recent days that he might “pause” military operations.

Ben Yorke, a former researcher at CoinTelegraph who now works on the AI ​​trading platform, said the activity showed characteristics that could be attributed to insider information.

Wallets for sure [look like] “He’s an insider to some degree,” Yorke said. Guard It refers to the betting pattern and the visible division of positions between multiple accounts.

He explained that such ‘wallet splitting’ can sometimes indicate an attempt to conceal the size or identity of a single investor.

“Typically, when you see deliberate attempts to split wallets and disguise identity, it is one of two scenarios: either a very large investor trying to protect their positions from market impact, or insider trading,” Yorke said.

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour has previously said the online prediction market is more accurate than opinion polls

Because Polymarket accounts are anonymous, it is extremely difficult to track who is behind certain transactions.

Adding to the intrigue, a separate account that had previously bet on the US attacking Iran and winning was opened shortly before this incident, and reportedly made no further bets.

Meanwhile, the platform’s implied probability of a ceasefire rose from 6 percent on March 21 to 24 percent on Monday, with more than $21 million now tied to the outcome.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi have quickly become a new frontier in geopolitical speculation, allowing users to bet on everything from military actions to diplomatic agreements.

But the speed, anonymity and global reach that make them attractive also make them difficult to control by the police.

Recent reports have highlighted concerns that such platforms could be used to profit from non-public information about sensitive events, including military operations and diplomatic negotiations.

Even so, insiders warn that having advanced knowledge cannot guarantee success in this particular market.

The Polymarket agreement requires formal confirmation from both the U.S. and Iranian governments that a ceasefire has been reached; This is a high bar that creates uncertainty even for knowledgeable traders.