Trump’s approval ratings just hit a new low. A Latino voter shift could reshape the midterms

WASHINGTON— With the Iran war now in its fifth week, support for President Trump is at its lowest point yet; A growing number of recent polls show Trump losing ground in key voting blocs that powered his victory in 2024.

While public dissatisfaction was evident among many groups surveyed, the decline in support for the president was most pronounced among Latino voters.

A. Reuters/Ipsos poll The report, released March 24, found that 36 percent of voters approved of the president’s job performance; this was the lowest level of his second term. The survey revealed 62 percent disapproval.

Other surveys e.g. AP-NORC The survey found that figure to be 38 percent.

As a result, the president is in the water on nearly every public policy issue. No gains were recorded in any poll categories except crime, which received around 47 percent approval, according to experts.

Approval on immigration, the president’s top issue, fell from roughly 45 percent in late 2025 to 39 percent in February, according to Reuters.

Nearly 1 in 4 respondents approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, Reuters found; because domestic gas prices have increased by more than $1 per gallon since the war began last month. The percentage of Republicans who disapprove of his handling of cost-of-living issues rose 7 points in a week to 34%.

This change comes at a time of growing economic unrest and growing reactions to the war in Iran. Nearly 1 in 3 Americans approve of military action, according to a Reuters poll.

A growing divide has emerged among leading conservatives over US intervention in the Middle East.

The clashes took place publicly and exposed tensions within the Republican Party, with conservative commentators such as Megyn Kelly openly questioning whether the war was in America’s best interest.

“This is not sensible foreign policy, and it’s not what Trump is pursuing. This is, in many ways, a betrayal of his campaign promises, of what he sold himself for, of his MAGA base,” Kelly said earlier this month.

Other conservative pundits, including Candace Owens, Tucker Carlson and Nick Fuentes, also disagree.

But the real damage is happening in the one place Trump can’t afford to lose: his base.

Trump entered his second term strengthened by his historic gains from Latino voters. Exit polls showed him increasing his lead with them by more than 20 percentage points in 2024 compared with his victory in 2016, fueling widespread narratives of a permanent shift in demographics toward Republicans. In the last election, 48 percent of Latinos supported him.

His support among Latino voters has since fallen to 22%, as of March 2026. Economist analysis.

In a bipartisan poll UnidosUSA While 14 percent of Latino voters polled in November said their lives got better after Trump took office, 39 percent said they got worse.

The president’s relationship with Latinos reflects a deep dissatisfaction with economic conditions, according to Mike Madrid, a senior California Republican political consultant and expert on Latino voting trends.

“This is largely a function of economics and affordability,” he said. “Latino voters moved away from Biden-Harris for the same reasons they are now moving away from Donald Trump.”

Research and surveys show that Latino voters prioritize cost-of-living issues like housing, wages and inflation over immigration, an issue frequently emphasized in national messaging.

“It’s not even close,” Madrid said. “Immigration isn’t even in the top 5 issues for Latino voters.”

Madrid suggested that the demographic recovery was a reflection of a rapidly changing electorate rather than a “comeback”.

“Latinos have emerged as the only real voters in America,” he said. “And they reject whatever party is in power.”

These volatile, double-digit voting swings directly contrast with more stable voting patterns among other major demographic groups, including Black and white voters, where shifts from cycle to cycle are only a few points.

The reason: dramatic attendance fluctuations. Who decides to go out or stay home on election day tends to change from year to year. This situation is further strengthened by the fact that the number of first-time Latino voters is much higher than in other categories.

Polls this month show Trump also losing ground among young voters, another group contributing to his 2024 gains.

More than half of men under 30 supported Trump in this election, helping him swing through many swing states.

In just one year, this demographic experienced a 20-point contraction.

“Trump won in 2024 because of men. They’re abandoning him right now,” CNN senior data analyst Harry Enten said Tuesday.

Returns could have major impacts on the November midterm elections, especially in competitive congressional districts where small swings could determine control of the House of Representatives.

Republicans have warned that Trump could face a third impeachment if they lose their narrow majority in Congress.

The movement away from Republicans is already visible in real-world election results, not just in polls, said UCLA political scientist Matt Barreto.

“We’ve already seen really big shifts in the Virginia and New Jersey legislative and gubernatorial elections, with the Latino vote trailing the Democratic Party by 25 points,” Barreto said. He added that similar patterns are emerging in places like Miami and Texas, where Democratic candidates have outperformed expectations with strong Latino support.

He said Latin Democrats who did not participate in the 2024 elections are returning to voters, while some Latin Republicans are withdrawing.

This dynamic could be decisive in November. Barreto said there are more than 40 congressional districts where the number of registered Latino voters exceeds the margin of victory in 2024. Many are closely divided between the parties.

“At the district level, the Latino vote will have a huge impact,” he said.