The reason why your roast lamb will cost more this Easter

British households that regularly consume lamb have faced an additional cost of £168 over the past three years as a direct result of climate change, a new report reveals.

The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) think tank attributes this increase to severe weather “shocks” affecting the UK since 2022.

These events, which include drought, extreme heat and heavy rains, have repeatedly increased the price of a typical 2kg leg of lamb by between 7% and 21%.

Chris Jaccarini, ECIU land, food and agriculture analyst, said: “As families and communities sit down to celebrate this Easter, the costs of climate change loom large.

“Lamb prices have skyrocketed as drought, extreme heat and heavy rains have reduced farmers’ production costs, weakened grass growth and prevented the depleted hay stores on which they depend on time from recovering.

“With beef and dairy prices rising following similar extreme weather impacts on production, it is clear that climate change now poses a major and worsening problem for livestock farmers.

“Food affordability remains worryingly exposed to these worsening shocks, with the current oil price shock threatening to bring a new wave of inflation in food prices unless there is a faster progress towards net zero that will restore balance to our climate and greater investment in the resilience of our farmers.”

The analysis, by Zero Carbon Analytics for the ECIU, used Met Office data to model the impact of drought and extreme heat in 2022, record rainfall between October 2023 and March 2024, and the hottest spring and summer on record in the UK last year.

He combined this with figures from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board to model the impact of extreme weather events on farm gate prices.

The drought in 2022 was found to increase prices by 11%, the wet winter of 2023/24 by 25% and the recent drought by 13%, mainly due to its impact on grass growth.

Farmgate prices, which are supposed to track consumer prices, added an extra £5 (17.5%) to the price of a lamb roast at Easter 2024 and an extra £7 (21%) a year later.

Jack Cockburn, a sheep farmer from Ceredigion in Wales, said: “Extreme weather is our biggest challenge here in West Wales.

“We had two very wet winters in a row, which meant poor grass growth due to waterlogged soils and low light levels combined with very cloudy conditions.

“This means lambs go to the slaughterhouse with lighter weights and less meat per animal.

“Farmers’ problems are different across the country.

“In Wales we suffer from wet weather, whereas in other parts of the UK long, hot and dry spells in summer are the biggest problem.

“To alleviate this, we now keep fewer sheep, as this makes it easier to maintain quality pastures by adopting nature-friendly grazing practices and rotating them.”

As well as rising lamb prices, the cost of Easter eggs has risen by two-thirds in three years as heavy rains, drought and humid heatwaves hit cocoa production in West Africa.

Grocery inflation figures released this week by Worldpanel by Numerator show the average amount paid for an Easter egg is 9% higher than last year, reaching as high as £3.27.