Hungary’s Orbán has long annoyed the European Union. Now some hope he faces defeat
BUDAPEST, Hungary (AP) — Hungary The elections on April 12 will cause deep aftershocks as many in the European Union hope for the defeat of nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who is seen as endangering the future of the 27-nation bloc.
Orbán, the EU’s longest-serving leader behind in the polls. His 16-year grip on power has tested the EU governance system, which aims to achieve peace through economic and political integration after the devastation of world wars. rival Péter Magyar told the Associated Press: If elected, he would repair Hungary’s relations with the EU.
The EU is grappling with huge threats: the rise of right-wing populism, conflicts Ukrainian And Middle EastRussian sabotage effortsChina’s economic expansion and the White House Upending decades of transatlantic cooperation.
However, the EU’s response to Orbán’s vetoes was limited. Lawmakers and analysts say he used his veto power and deep understanding of how the bloc distributes funds to members to gain outsize influence by obstructing decision-making to consolidate his power and extract concessions.
“He walked into a club, read the rules, figured out how he could rig the rules, and then he started being a freeloader and blackmailing all the other club members,” said Dániel Hegedűs, deputy director of the Berlin-based Institute for European Policy. “The question is: How long will club members tolerate this?”
Optimism for Hungary turned into disappointment
It didn’t all start that way. Following the Cold War, Hungary joined the EU in 2004 along with nine other countries, in the bloc’s largest ever enlargement. Jim Townsend of the Center for a New American Security said there is widespread optimism about Hungary.
But former Hungarian lawmaker Gábor Scheiring, who now teaches at Georgetown University in Qatar, said Orbán came to power after economic crises by promising prosperity to both rich and poor. He also forged ties with conservative politicians in the bloc.
Orbán began to denigrate the EU and often compared Brussels to the Soviet Union. large amounts of EU moneyand resist pressure reversing democratic decline.
From 2014 to 2022, “Hungary was one of the biggest beneficiaries of EU funds,” Scheiring said. “Orbán could run the EU system really well: take all the money and get away with his political nonsense.”
The EU is disappointed by Orbán’s failure to ensure judicial independence, media freedom and curb corruption. started Freezing billions of dollars of funds To Budapest in 2022 for violation of rule of law standards.
Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Orbán frequently used his veto power to block efforts to support Kiev and impose sanctions on Moscow. His closeness with Russian President Vladimir Putin attracted attention.
When Orbán recanted last month An agreement was reached in December Accepting an offer to provide Ukraine with a 90 billion euro ($104 billion) loan, friendly European Council President Antonio Costa became visibly angry: “No one can blackmail the European Union institutions,” he said.
Orbán exposes EU’s ‘design flaw’
The problem that vexes the EU, as many see it, is that important decisions require unanimity among members. Critics say this prevents the bloc from taking stronger action on other critical issues, such as the war in Gaza.
German lawmaker Daniel Freund said the European Parliament’s internal report showed that Orbán had vetoed more votes than any other leader in the history of the EU.
“It’s astonishing. No one even comes close to this,” Freund said. “This is the biggest design flaw he has uncovered in the EU.”
Orbán’s vetoes have led to calls to reform the bloc’s key agreements to shore up support against future authoritarians or Orbán himself if he wins the election.
There are ways to do this, but each has limitations.
The EU could reduce the number of issues requiring unanimity. This would allow the measures to pass with a simple majority of the 27 national leaders, representing about two-thirds of the bloc’s population.
Hegedűs said the European Commission could “act even tougher” by preparing sanctions for certain violations of EU rules.
Some politicians have even suggested invoking Article 7 of the EU Treaty, a legal measure that could revoke Hungary’s voting rights in the bloc.
But this requires the approval of other EU leaders, and Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico has said he would veto such a measure.
EU may pressure Hungary on defense financing
There are other tools the EU can use.
The European Commission did not approve Hungary’s proposal to withdraw about 16 billion euros ($18.4 billion) under an EU program to increase the defense capabilities of its members. Another 18 countries that submitted plans to use the funds were also approved.
Hegedűs said that if Orbán is re-elected, the EU could use the fund as a bargaining chip to obtain concessions such as the lifting of its 90 billion euro veto on Ukraine. But there’s no guarantee that once Hungary gets the money, it won’t find other policies to veto.
“What will the EU propose in two, three or four months when the next strategic decision will come and Orbán will block it again?” Hegedűs said.
Orbán inspires how EU welcomes members
Orbán’s behavior has led to a re-examination of how the EU accepts new members and monitors existing members.
Ongoing negotiations with Moldova, Montenegro and Ukraine towards EU accession are increasingly shaped by the turbulent experience with Hungary.
In February, European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos said that the 12 countries, including Hungary, that joined the EU between 2004 and 2007 “have ushered in a new era of stability and impressive levels of economic convergence for our continent.”
But without naming Hungary or any other country, Kos said the lesson of 2004 was: “We need to have safeguards to ensure that new members comply with the rules.”
“If countries go backwards on our fundamental principles such as democracy and the rule of law, security measures must be difficult,” the commissioner said, adding: “No Trojan horses.”
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McNeil reported from Brussels.
