Donald Trump claims to have ended a 10th war – but will the Lebanon ceasefire hold? | Lebanon

The Israeli security cabinet first heard about a ceasefire with Lebanon from Donald Trump’s social media post. Hezbollah first heard about the ceasefire from Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon. Both sides launched as many bombs, drones and rockets as possible before the ceasefire imposed from above came into effect.

Although the US president claims that this is the 10th war he has ended, the situation in Lebanon does not look stable at all.

Israeli troops held their ground deep in Lebanon on Friday, firing artillery shells and machine guns at residents who got too close, just hours after a ceasefire. Hezbollah said it would respect the ceasefire, but its fighters’ fingers remained “on guard.”

A 10-day ceasefire in Lebanon causes hostilities to temporarily stop. However, the text of the agreement does not resolve any of the fundamental problems that brought Hezbollah and Israel to war, and unless there is a radical change in the positions of both sides, hostilities could easily restart.

The sources of the conflict are Hezbollah’s weapons and Israel’s ongoing occupation of southern Lebanon and bombings throughout the country.

The aim of the ceasefire is to allow direct negotiations between the Lebanese and Israeli governments. The fact that direct negotiations are taking place between the two governments is an achievement in itself; they have not spoken directly for decades and do not have diplomatic relations.

Negotiators have their work cut out for them. According to the text of the agreement, the goal of the talks will be to achieve “permanent peace” between the two countries, where the Lebanese government has a monopoly of power on its territory and where the official border has been drawn, which has been disputed since 2000.

To achieve these goals, the status of Hezbollah’s weapons will need to be determined and Israeli forces will need to withdraw from Lebanese territory.

Hezbollah has called on the Lebanese government not to engage in direct talks with Israel, adhering to the ceasefire and appointing Iran as its representative in US-Iran talks. The Lebanese government continues its diplomacy without the group’s authority, and its ability to impose the terms of the agreement without outside support is questionable.

Hezbollah’s base, which bears the brunt of the war, is more alienated from the Lebanese government than ever before. He sees himself as impotent and unable to defend the country against Israeli aggression.

Many saw the photo of the Lebanese flag next to the Israeli flag in Washington on Tuesday as a humiliating capitulation; this particular photo was taken while Israeli jets were bombing the country, still untouchable.

When those living in southern Lebanon returned to their villages, they saw that their houses were in ruins and Israeli soldiers were in close proximity. Almost 2,200 people, mostly women, children and the elderly, were killed by Israel last month; No one took responsibility for these deaths.

The argument for Hezbollah’s weapons to be retained by the group’s supporters is stronger than ever. For those outside Hezbollah’s base, there is little alternative to negotiations. What Hezbollah describes as victory – 44 days of fighting Israel in southern Lebanon – looks like a bitter defeat for them. They were dragged into war by a group they did not choose, losing much of southern Lebanon and much of their own lives in the process.

The picture emerging domestically is worrying and contradictory. Unlike the 2024 ceasefire agreement, which also aims to disarm Hezbollah, there can be no further diversion. The issue of Hezbollah’s weapons will need to be decided, and this is now being done in an even more difficult context.

There is also pressure in Israel to continue the war in Lebanon. The ceasefire announcement angered many residents of northern Israel, who want the conflict to finally end the threat from Hezbollah. A poll by Israel’s Channel 12 broadcaster last week found that almost 80% of respondents wanted attacks against the armed group to continue.

Statements by Israeli officials boasted of the military victory against Hezbollah, while also containing a veiled threat that the war could continue if Lebanon’s demands were not met.

Israeli defense minister Israel Katz said on Friday: “The ground maneuver against Lebanon and the offensive against Hezbollah across Lebanon have achieved many successes but are not yet completed; the goal we have defined: to disarm Hezbollah, either militarily or diplomatically, was and remains the goal of the campaign to which we are committed.”

Trump was less cavalier about Israel’s ability to continue military action on Friday, announcing a deal with Iran on enriched uranium while saying Israel was now “prohibited” from bombing Lebanon. His statement came even as Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his country was “not done” in dismantling Hezbollah.

It is not yet known whether Trump’s attention will remain on Lebanon and whether he will continue to put pressure on Israel to lay off jobs.

Just as a ceasefire is imposed from above, the path to lasting peace passes through Washington and Tehran, even if negotiators come from Beirut and Tel Aviv.

Continued and intense international focus will need to remain on the Lebanese-Israeli peace talks, otherwise the war will begin again.