Iran is suffering in a stand off with the US – but may be betting Trump will blink first

United States naval blockade The Iran issue is strangling the Islamic Republic’s main economic corridors; It leaves Tehran facing a looming oil storage crisis and its citizens grappling with rising food prices and rising unemployment.

But it will be difficult to completely eliminate Iran unless Washington is prepared to enforce the naval blockade for months longer. economy He spent years adapting to US pressure and crippling sanctions.

As Iran suffers, its leaders will be aware that Trump is under pressure, the US president will face increasing repercussions for the war within the country, and Iran’s leaders will also be aware that Trump is under pressure. critical midterms approaching. Tehran may have calculated that Trump would wink first.

Just three months ago, Iran’s government was on the brink of collapse after people took to the streets across the country to protest the poor state of the economy. The same government was given a lifeline when the US and Israel launched their attacks, and now it uses the excuse of war to justify the dire economic conditions of a nation of 92 million people.

“Iran was already facing a maximum pressure campaign during Trump’s first term and had to cut its oil production by half,” Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, CEO of think tank Borse and Bazaar, told CNN.

“If the blockade continues for months, it will certainly affect Iran’s economic outlook, but Iran’s expectation is that the United States itself will not be able to tolerate this pressure for that long.”

The incident, which started with the blockade of Iranian ports more than ten days ago, expanded globallyEvery Iran-bound ship faces careful monitoring by US naval forces throughout its voyage.

One of the main consequences of the blockade would be to render Iran unable to export its main product. If the country cannot replace the millions of barrels of oil it produces every day, it may have to cut production. Exports of crude oil and petroleum products are Iran’s main source of foreign currency.

Batmanghelidj said Iran could probably maintain its current oil production for another two to three months before storage issues become a “major consideration.”

Shipping analytics company Kpler said Iran still has plenty of onshore oil storage left, with a headroom of almost 30 million barrels, meaning it is still weeks away from its border.

It could even extend its storage capacity even further if it finds other ways to drain stored oil.

One option Iran is exploring is using retired crude oil tankers. Tankertrackers.com, a maritime intelligence firm that tracks crude oil shipments, said a 30-year-old large carrier named NASHA was observed sailing towards oil storage terminals on Kharg island, possibly to offload oil and serve as floating storage.

‘There’s nothing inside. ‘There’s nothing out’

Until a ceasefire was declared on April 7, the United States and Israel were launching almost daily attacks on Iran, killing senior officials and targeting key infrastructure including steel mills, petrochemical plants and highways connecting cities.

One of the main US objectives for most of the war was the reopening of the critical Strait of Hormuz. But when Iranian negotiators failed to reach an agreement with their American counterparts this month, President Donald Trump changed tactics and announced that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth was launching an “iron-clad” naval blockade of Iran from the Gulf of Oman to the “open oceans.”

“According to the regime in Tehran, the blockade is getting tighter every hour. We are in control. There is nothing inside. There is nothing outside,” Hegseth said at a press conference on Friday.

The US move came in response to Tehran’s decision to block the Strait of Hormuz and impose sanctions. unofficial toll Ships passing through this critical maritime transit point, which provides more than one fifth of the world’s oil and gas exports, cause oil prices to rise rapidly.

Sultan Al Jaber, CEO of Abu Dhabi’s state oil giant ADNOC, said on

Southern Iran forms the backbone of the country’s trade and economy and handles the majority of its oil exports through terminals. While Iran has land borders for some overland trade, nothing compares to its southern coastline. While Kharg Island alone exports approximately 90% of Iranian crude oil, other locations along its coastline offer Iran the option of moving its oil beyond the Strait of Hormuz.

The ongoing US naval blockade severely restricts these southern terminals even beyond the Strait of Hormuz.

The war with Iran also threatened the world’s supply of aluminium, plastic and rubber. The Middle East ships about 25% of polypropylene and 20% of polyethylene, two of the most used plastics in the world. It also accounts for a quarter of the world’s sulfur and 15% of the fertilizer.

Stating that ships coming from or going to Iranian ports were turned back, Hegseth noted that as of Friday, 34 ships were stopped in the region and two more ships with Iran connections were seized in the Indo-Pacific. At least publicly, the USA emphasizes that it will not step back.

“Whatever President Trump decides, a blockade no matter how long it lasts,” Hegseth said.

Religious Leader says be considerate

If Iran is forced to turn to alternative import routes, such as through land borders or through the Caspian Sea to the north, this could cause already rising commodity prices to rise even further.

State-run media, citing Gholamhossein Mohammadi, Iran’s deputy labor minister, said one million jobs have already been lost in Iran and the employment of two million people has been affected by the war.

Iranian Labor Ministry official Alireza Mahjoub told the Iranian Labor News Agency (ILNA) that another 130,000 workers lost their jobs after their factories were hit.

The Iranian government has maintained that there is no shortage of goods and that despite “pressures, sanctions and shipping restrictions” the country’s food supply chain is fully functioning, with 85% of agricultural products and essential goods produced domestically.

A Tehran resident confirmed to CNN that markets remain stocked even as prices of basic goods such as chicken, rice, eggs and medicine have tripled or even quadrupled.

But while most U.S. voters are alarmed by rising gas prices, Iranians are more accustomed to such challenges.

“For the Iranian leadership, the goal during the war is not to maintain a normal economy,” Batmanghelidj said. “The goal is to keep the economic machine running for as long as possible, and I think they can probably achieve that.”

The country’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, acknowledged there were some shortages of fuel that required “careful planning” and “public cooperation”, but described what the government had achieved as “divine grace”.

Iran’s new religious leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who has neither been seen nor heard from since his appointment last month, called on people to “be considerate of each other in order to reduce the pressures created by famines, which are a natural consequence of all kinds of wars, on different segments of society” in his written statement.

There were tentative signs of movement in negotiations this weekend; US envoys are expected to follow Iran’s top diplomat to Pakistan, where mediators are keen to restart talks. But Tehran has survived decades of US hostility and, unlike Washington, has more than short-term considerations.

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