Are Rachel Reeves’s days as chancellor numbered?

“It looks like it’s dried out.”

That was Kemi Badenoch’s assessment, not for the first time, when Sir Keir Starmer could not guarantee that Rachel Reeves would continue in her role as chancellor.

In heated PMQs, the Conservative Party leader asked the Prime Minister if she would “listen to the businesses, listen to the country and change the chancellor”, to which the Prime Minister replied that Ms Reeves had achieved various economic successes during her tenure but, more importantly, that her future in the job was not guaranteed.

Downing Street moved to say Sir Keir had “full confidence” in his chancellor and “his position remains unchanged” after the PMQs, but the damage was done.

This sequence of events played out almost identically less than a year ago, when the prime minister was forced into an impromptu romance within 24 hours after failing to secure his tearful chancellor’s future in the House of Commons.

But as the situation becomes increasingly desperate for this prime minister, he is forced to consider big moves to save his premiership.

Independent He revealed last month that Ms Reeves was a potential casualty in the reshuffle to restore Sir Keir’s authority and that he would need a new person in the Treasury if he wanted to turn left and change economic policy.

The problem with this prime minister (indeed, any prime minister) is that sacking a chancellor often heralds losing his job. Just ask Liz Truss, who barely survived a week after sacking Kwasi Kwarteng.

Tony Blair wanted to break up with Gordon Brown but knew it would be politically disastrous.

The last prime minister to get away with changing the chancellor was Boris Johnson, who got rid of Sajid Javid and installed Rishi Sunak. But just a month later the country went into lockdown and any thoughts of realignment were ruled out as the country battled the pandemic. Mr Javid had not even submitted a Budget at the point he resigned, and he later took revenge by resigning as health secretary, triggering a series of resignations that ended Mr Johnson’s tenure in Downing Street.

However, with dire election results expected for Labor on 7 May and the prime minister having already spent so much political capital recovering from the Peter Mandelson scandal, he will need something dramatic to stay in power.

There are already rumors that other leftists, such as former deputy chancellor Angela Rayner and former transport minister Louise Haigh, will return to rebalance the party.

Although Ms. Reeves is important, she does not have many political allies and might normally be an easier sacrifice than a chancellor.

And because Sir Keir has forced out or sacked many senior figures, we know he can be ruthless when things get desperate.

After all, he’s looking for the third permanent undersecretary of State Department, he’s gone through four communications directors, he has a third and fourth chief of staff and share that role, and he has a third cabinet secretary — with his government not even two years old yet.

The biggest question was who could replace him. It would take someone with a very different economic vision, perhaps Ed Miliband, the energy secretary.

With Parliament closed until the King’s speech on May 13, speculation about a reshuffle will increase as questions about Sir Keir’s future grow.