One Nation’s surge signals warning for Labor and Liberals in Victoria
Both Labor and Liberal types will say the Nepean by-election is a warning sign of what’s to come for their rivals. Even though they don’t admit it, they are both right. With a quarter of voters leaning towards One Nation on Saturday, both sides need to be ready for a fight.
The rise of One Nation, which has captured 24 per cent of the primary vote so far, confirms that the Coalition will not be the only one struggling to retain once-loyal voters in the state elections on 28 November.
With 79 per cent of votes counted, there are some early lessons the two major parties can draw from what happened in Victoria’s coastal electorate this weekend.
First, let’s turn to the Liberals. Although they would have a healthy bipartisan outcome, new Liberal MP Anthony Marsh made a significant cut of around 10 per cent in his primary; retired Liberal MP Sam Groth’s 48 per cent in 2022 fell to 38 per cent. This is broadly in line with the Resolve Political Monitor’s finding in February that the 10 per cent increase in One Nation’s votes came at the expense of the Coalition.
This is not good news for an opposition that is hoping public disillusionment with the Labor government that has been in power for 12 years will build momentum towards victory.
It must be worrying that One Nation candidate Darren Hercus won almost a quarter of the vote despite the Liberals outspending them for attack ads and mail deliveries. Even more worrying is that this result was achieved without Hanson’s team investing much money in the seat.
Although One Nation has not historically had the same level of funding as the major parties, given billionaire Gina Rinehart’s financial backing of Hanson, it’s safe to assume they will have sufficient resources to fight fire with fire in competitive seats in November.
A Liberal MP, speaking anonymously to detail private discussions, said one of their greatest assets in retaining Nepean was Opposition Leader Jess Wilson, who was in the electorate almost every day throughout the campaign.
This will not be possible in November.
Before election day, the Liberals were concerned about the mood on the field and the level of support for Hercus as well as independent Tracee Hutchison, who has garnered 21.26 per cent of the primary vote so far. When both perform this well, who comes second will depend on preferences.
This was an unusual case study for things to come, with the Liberals in an excellent position due to two diametrically opposed camps.
Very few Hutchison voters would choose One Nation over the Liberals, and anyone who voted for Hercus was asked to choose the Coalition. This left Marsh out in the cold and poised to garner a large share of the vote.
The implication is that the Liberals will almost certainly have to strike a deal with One Nation if they want to win in November. The coalition openly denied the reports in this article that this was a fait accompli. But if One Nation continues to get 20 per cent of the vote – including a growing number of Conservative voters keen on One Nation – the preferences will have to go its way, even if the Coalition offers Labor a ready line of attack.
Wilson said on Sunday: preference decisions were a feature of every election and would be decided by the Liberal Party much closer to the election.
“We’re not going to make any decisions about preferences when we don’t have an idea of who the candidates are, what the policies are, who the leaders are,” he said.
Allan said the result in Nepean showed the Coalition could not govern without One Nation.
“They’re going to rely on One Nation and that’s something Victorians can’t afford,” he said.
But ultimately the winners are smiling, and Wilson can walk away claiming victory in one of his first public trials.
As for Labour, the result tells us a few things.
In 2022 Labour, the Greens and Animal Justice collectively won 43 per cent of the vote in Nepean. On Saturday, Hutchison, the Greens and Marijuana Legalization received 33.45 percent of the primary vote.
That 10-point loss among progressive voters appears to have gone directly to One Nation.
Looking at blue-collar cottages such as Dromana and Rosebud, where Labor generally outperformed the rest of the electorate (and where ownership was high), One Nation had the highest vote at around 28 per cent.
Since Labor did not contest the by-election, these voters were essentially given permission to go One Nation. Although they could return in November, it is still a warning sign that Labour’s working-class voters are willing to move to the margins.
The other challenge for both parties is gauging how successful the Liberals are in using Premier Jacinta Allan’s popularity, or unpopularity, to their advantage.
With a net favorability rating in the -30s, the Liberals ran attack ads arguing that votes for One Nation would help Allan stay in power. Other pamphlets attacked Hutchison, trying to link him to the prime minister.
Perhaps these messages did not get through because voters knew that by-elections would not change the government. Although the message will likely resonate more in November when the stakes are higher, both sides need to remain vigilant and cautious when it comes to One Nation, with its gains to be made.
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