Labour’s looming election disaster which could force Keir Starmer out | Politics | News

Francis Ford Coppola’s Apocalypse Now opens with a haunting scene in which a forest scene explodes into a series of fireballs, accompanied by the equally haunting soundtrack of The Doors’ This Is The End. It is clear from the first moments of the Vietnam saga that this story will not have a happy ending. The polls at Westminster are so dire for Labor that the BBC may have played The Doors while covering the final hours of Sir Keir Starmer’s bid to avert an electoral disaster in Thursday’s elections for English councils and the Welsh and Scottish parliaments.

Sir Keir Starmer has been in power for just over a year and 300 days. That’s longer than it took Sir Anthony Eden, Rishi Sunak and Sir Alec-Douglas-Home, and if the results are as bad as predicted, calls can be expected to be withdrawn from Downing Street. There is a feeling of doom hanging over Parliament. What’s the worst thing that could happen?

They could lose more than 1,500 councilors in England. The men and women who have spent years dealing with complaints about rubbish collection, faulty streetlights and vital services will be shunned and blamed for a Prime Minister who came into office more famous for his freebies than for his policies, and who later took pensioners’ winter fuel payments, terrorized farmers with inheritance tax bombs, increased taxes on employers and was friends with Jeffrey Epstein’s US ambassador.

Losing seats to Reform and the Greens is much scarier for Labor than seeing them go to the Conservatives. These parties seek to replace Labor and their local activists will now have a campaigning base within local government.

If Reform wins 1,400 seats the party will claim it is on track to take power at Westminster. This will cause panic within Labor ranks and deepen the belief that a new leader is needed who can take on Nigel Farage.

Zack Polanski’s Greens could top the poll in London’s Hackney. This would be their first time leading a district of the capital. If they can win there, it is feared Lambeth, Lewisham and Islington (London Labour’s so-called power base) will also fall.

More misery is expected in Scotland, where More in Common has warned Labor faces its “worst ever” defeat in the Edinburgh Parliament. A party that once dominated Scottish politics could see its share of the vote drop by as much as 15%; It could win just 13 of 129 seats, falling behind Reform UK.

In early February, Scottish Labor leader Anas Sarwar held a press conference and said: “The distraction needs to end and the leadership in Downing Street needs to change.”

MPs at Westminster did not follow his advice. But if the results are as bad as feared, many Labor supporters will ask why they did not act to prevent this devastating disaster.

Labour’s First Minister Eluned Morgan has shown greater loyalty to the Prime Minister but colleagues may want her to leave when the Senedd results are announced.

The Labor Party has been in power in Wales since 1999. It has been the largest party in all general elections since 1922. And now it is on track to be pushed into third place behind pro-independence Plaid Cymru and Reform.

Even Sir Keir’s best friends might be shaking their heads at this point and asking: “If he can’t win in Wales, where can he win?”

It appears to be a country where the first ministers of England, Scotland and Wales want independence, while Northern Ireland looks forward to a referendum on Irish unity. People in all unionist parties will ask whether a London lawyer like Sir Keir is the best person to keep the UK together.

Can he survive? The important thing is not whether he goes towards the exit, but when he surrenders. The nightmare scenario for MPs who value self-preservation is that he leaves the Labor Party in 2029 after leading it to ruin.

His best hope of avoiding sudden fenestration lies in the failure of his rivals to generate the support they need to seize the crown.

More Partnerships found that 51% of Britons think it would be better for the country if he were replaced by another Labor politician. It may sound rude, but the same British people said they would prefer Sir Keir as Prime Minister over Angela Rayner, Ed Miliband or Shabana Mahmood.

Labor MPs have clear memories of the chaos that engulfed the Conservatives when they began to change leaders. There is no guarantee that his replacement will increase the party’s popularity, and once an act against the king takes place, the conspiracy never stops.

Those polled said they would prefer Wes Streeting or Yvette Cooper to lead the country over Sir Keir. The Health Minister has no shortage of ambition, but the problem is that he is seen as a Right-winger; The fear is that if he comes out on top, even more of Labour’s Leftist base will move to join the Greens.

The only Labor figure to enjoy major support was Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, who has been dubbed the King in the North. The problem is that he is no longer an MP and Labor’s governing body prevented him from standing in the last Gorton and Denton byelection.

Even if he could participate in another by-election, would he win? Reform and the Greens would search every kitchen sink (and fryer) in the country to stop him going to Westminster; and it would be a disheartening moment of despair for Labor if any of the rebel parties won the mayoralty of Manchester.

Sir Keir did everything he could to stop a coup within the party just hours after the results came in. Since parliament is in recess, the plots have to be carried out via WhatsApp.

The King’s Speech is scheduled for May 13. If the Prime Minister had been ousted before then, Britain would have looked like the dustbin of a country; Labor would literally be in power without a plan.

If the King reads the speech Sir Keir has written for him, it is hard to imagine Labor MPs rejecting it or immediately sacking the Prime Minister. With the world on the brink of an economic crisis and Britain already facing terrible borrowing costs, the UK cannot afford another period of self-inflicted instability.

Labor whips will tell unhappy backbenchers that the country is on the brink of further cost-of-living pain. In a nightmare scenario, if there is an oil shortage and holiday flights are cancelled, they will warn that the country will never forgive them if they engage in leadership battles as the storm engulfs the country.

This is one of the biggest reasons why aspirants to the Labor Party throne are left behind. Do they want to seize power at such a dangerous moment?

There is no spare cash to be cut in preferred projects. What do they do differently?

The revelation of the next cache of Mandelson emails threatens to embarrass Labor once again. Why not let Ser Keir suffer that lightning strike?

If borrowing costs rise, will the Government face the choice of overturning the manifesto and increasing taxes on the cash-strapped population, or borrowing more and cutting valuable public services and benefits? Which Labor leader would want to do this?

If the Prime Minister can make it through to the summer, Whips will urge MPs not to unseat him during the conference season. While Nigel Farage is likely to take a victory lap at the Reform convention, Labor shouldn’t look like a Looney Tunes convention.

If Sir Keir is still in office come the autumn, then all eyes will be on the Budget and the same Whips will be begging MPs to get behind the Prime Minister and Chancellor because the country’s economic survival is at stake.

Sir Keir has a way to hang on for days, weeks and even months, but any sense that Labor can regain its popularity will almost certainly be destroyed in this election, showing how in less than two years the party has lost the trust and confidence of a nation prepared to give it a chance.

MPs who want Labor to win a majority at the next general election and want to prevent Nigel Farage from becoming Prime Minister will fear hundreds of them will lose their seats if they do nothing by 2029. Someone will take action. No one knows how many pages are left in the story of Sir Keir’s time as Prime Minister, but he is in his final chapters and the country is heading towards its end.