Aramco CEO Warns of Long Oil Market Disruption as Profit Jumps
Saudi Aramco’s boss warned of prolonged disruption to oil markets due to the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, while the company reported a jump in profits following higher prices and the ability to reroute exports through a pipeline bypassing the vital waterway.
“If trade flows resume through the Strait of Hormuz immediately or today, it will take several months for the oil market to come back into balance,” Aramco Chief Executive Amin Nasser said in an emailed comment. “However, if trade and transport are disrupted for more than a few weeks from now, we anticipate that the supply disruption will continue and the market will only return to normal in 2027.”
The comments underscore the deepening risk to the oil market as the conflict in the Middle East enters its third month and the United States and Iran make little progress in talks aimed at opening flows. The clashes have thrown markets into turmoil, with traffic in Hormuz coming to a near standstill and oil prices hovering near $100 a barrel.
Higher increases in crude and refined product prices helped Aramco report a 26% increase in adjusted net income in the first quarter; This exceeded analysts’ expectations with 126 billion riyals. It continued paying dividends, which are vital for the Saudi economy. The company said it sold higher quantities of crude oil, refined fuels and chemical products compared to the previous year.
Also read: Aramco CEO Warns of Oil Market Disaster in Protracted Iran War
Saudi Arabia had been increasing exports before the war began at the end of February, and within days of the conflict it quickly diverted some of the shipments to an alternative port on the Red Sea. Still, quantities sold through the alternative port of Yanbu are below pre-war levels.
“While Aramco has been able to mitigate some of the impact through strategic foresight such as the East-West pipeline, global energy system supplies remain constrained,” Nasser said. “The energy sector needs to plan and invest more in resilience.”
Also read: Billion-Barrel Hormuz Oil Shock Is About to Crash Demand
The volume of crude oil sold in the first quarter was higher than a year ago but was down quarter on quarter, the company said, without providing further information. Aramco is scheduled to hold an analyst call on Monday.
Pipeline flows increased after the start of the war as tankers raced to get oil from the Red Sea rather than the Gulf. Tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show observable exports averaged 3.6 million barrels per day in March, rising to just under 4 million barrels per day in April.
According to people familiar with the matter, Aramco’s trading unit is among the companies that have been shipping crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz in recent days, mostly on ships with transponders turned off to avoid detection.
The company announced that it sold crude oil at $76.90 per barrel in the first quarter. That figure was $64.10 in the quarter ending Dec. 31 and $76.30 a year ago.
Aramco maintained its quarterly dividend at $21.9 billion after increasing its payout by 3.5% to the current level at the end of last year. Free cash flow (funds remaining from operations after accounting for investments and expenses) was below dividend distributions at $18.6 billion in the quarter.
The company’s debt ratio, a measure of indebtedness, rose to 4.8% this quarter from 3.8% at the end of 2025.
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