MARK ALMOND: It was Donald’s visit to China last week that has set the stage for compromise

Of course, we have been promised peace agreements before, and we have yet to see the full details of the agreements that Washington and Tehran have reportedly tentatively agreed to.

But some things are already clear: The 12-week conflict has its winners and its big losers. And no matter what agreement is ultimately reached, the Middle East has been reshaped.

First, the losers; especially Israel. Bahrain and the UAE, its two friends in the Gulf, suffered economic damage from Iranian missiles. Meanwhile, Tehran’s blockade of the Persian Gulf has left them unable to export oil.

The UAE had led the region’s efforts to move away from hydrocarbons, but business- and tourist-friendly policies (for example, attracting investors and ‘influential people’ to Dubai) are useless under the threat of drone attacks. The Sunni rulers of these oil-rich states are now desperate to reach an agreement with Shiite Iran.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is thought to be the person who initially persuaded US President Donald Trump to attack Iran at a secret White House meeting in February.

This was due to the apparent belief that the mullahs could be removed from power by bombs.

However, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps continues to control Tehran; This is a strange fact that will make the upcoming general elections in Israel difficult for Netanyahu.

Most Israelis support a hard line against Iran and its two proxies on its borders (Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza).

Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Pakistani allies appear to have quietly maneuvered America and Iran towards a deal that suits Beijing, writes Mark Almond

But three years after Hamas’ bloody rampage on October 7, Netanyahu has won only tactical victories. Despite the assassination of Iran’s leaders and their proxies, thousands of enemy rockets and fighters remain.

Britain and Europe are also among the losers. The oil shock means inflation and interest rates are rising, dashing hopes for much-needed growth.

To make matters worse, the continent was militarily exposed.

Europeans, including most Britons, are angry at Trump – not without reason – but boasting about US failure cannot hide our weakness and dependence on Washington for defense against more immediate threats from Iran.

Its vast resources and two vast oceans may appear to protect the United States from the worst consequences of its actions in the Gulf, but Washington is hardly a winner.

Trump can and will claim that Iran’s ability to build a nuclear bomb has been severely diminished; but this was also true before the final round of fighting began. Washington has spent billions of dollars to destroy most of Iran, but it is hard to see an end result that is not worse for America and its allies than the situation was before the first bomb was dropped.

Which brings us to the winners. Who can doubt that Trump’s visit to China last week paved the way for compromise and terms for withdrawal from the Gulf?

Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Pakistani allies who organized the negotiations seem to have quietly guided America and Iran to an agreement that suits Beijing, without humiliating Trump.

World trade can come back to life not only in energy. China will be seen as the arbiter of peace. If negotiations fail, Beijing will not be to blame.

Russia is also close to winning. Although he was infuriated to see Iran, one of his leading allies, hurt so badly, Putin made billions of dollars from the rise in oil and gas prices.

Worse still, Tehran knows it can retain de facto control of the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important oil and gas shipping route.

Putin also enjoyed seeing the conflict poison relations between Washington and European capitals, as he blamed the US for not supporting Trump’s ‘little trip’.

As for Iran, it is certainly suffering economically and badly needs Trump to withdraw the dogs of war. Still, there are good reasons to think that their new leaders are much more stubborn and rigid than their predecessors who were killed by precision strikes by America and Israel.

Worse, Tehran knows that if it wanted, it could have de facto control over the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important oil and gas shipping lane; This is a deplorable development for world trade in general and Iran’s rivals in particular.

In the short term, Iran, China and Russia may be perfectly happy that Trump appears poised for a downfall without accomplishing much. But remember: Only the President of the United States can decide whether any agreement is acceptable.

Facing the Soviet Union in the Cuban Missile Crisis in October 1962, President John F. Kennedy warned his team not to boast because he did not want humiliated Kremlin supporters to spoil the deal.

Let’s hope today’s points winner, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei Jr., is an unlikely JFK. And it curbs the mood for a victory that would likely send Trump into a disastrous Third Round.

• Mark Almond is director of the Oxford Crisis Research Institute