NBA’s new lottery system strips worst teams of top draft odds, but may reward calculated mediocrity

On Thursday, the NBA Board of Governors approved a plan that would significantly reshape the draft lottery. League’s tank problem.

Teams don’t lose on purpose because they like being bad. They do this because the system rewards them. The real question is whether the NBA’s latest overhaul actually solves the problem.

By a decisive 29-1 vote, with the Memphis Grizzlies casting the lone dissenting vote, the league approved the new 3-2-1 lottery structure.

The revamped system expands the lottery field to 16 teams and deprives the league’s three worst teams of the most favorable draft odds.

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After years of criticism over tanking, Commissioner Adam Silver has launched his most aggressive effort yet to deter franchises from bottoming out.

According to the new format, the NBA will significantly reduce the chances of the league’s three worst teams being picked at number 1.

Meanwhile, teams that finish with the worst records, between fourth and 10th, will receive better odds.

Under the revised structure, the ninth- and 10th-worst teams will have the same 5.4 percent chance of getting the top pick as the NBA’s true bottom-ranked teams.

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The additional safeguards also prevent franchises from earning the No. 1 pick in consecutive seasons or finishing in the top five in three consecutive drafts.

On paper, the changes appear to strengthen competitive integrity. In effect, they may simply redirect incentives.

NBA commissioner Adam Silver announced that the first round of the NBA draft will begin in New York on June 25, 2025. (Man Hunger/AP)

Instead of rewarding the league’s worst teams, the new system predominantly favors teams that finish in the middle of the lottery standings.

The 3-2-1 model discourages full-scale demolitions but creates a new incentive for teams that stay close to the qualifying line. A larger group of mediocre teams now have reason to engineer postseason slides. The goal is to slide from competing to the bottom, quietly out of the postseason picture and into a better lottery position.

Teams close to the playoff bubble will quickly realize that dropping from eighth to ninth could significantly increase their chances of landing a franchise-changing player.

The play-in tournament only complicates the math.

Under the new rules, the loser of the opening match between the seventh and eighth seeds gets to enter the lottery and a 2.7% chance of the top pick, while the winner locks in the selection made late in the first round.

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This remains the fundamental flaw in the NBA’s approach to tanking.

The league is trying to regulate behavior without addressing the economic reality that leads to it.

The deliberate losing continues because the draft remains the NBA’s most reliable channel for superstar acquisition, especially for small-market franchises that rarely attract elite free agents.

NBA commissioner Adam Silver speaks during a press conference during the Emirates NBA Cup Final at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nev., on December 16, 2025. (Kirby Lee/Imagn Images)

The new format will likely eliminate some of the more obvious tanking, while 15-win rosters built around pre-Christmas G League call-ups will satisfy broadcast partners and fans weary of unwatched basketball at the end of the season.

But it could also replace lower-tier tanking with a league-wide jockeying match for positioning in March and April.

The race to the bottom may be slowing down.

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The race to the middle is probably just beginning.

Send us your thoughts: alejandro.avila@outkick.com Follow on /x: @alejandroaveela