‘It’s time to move forward’: Armenians vote in election closely watched by Russia and EU | Armenia

Armenians are heading to the polls in an election that will solidify the country’s shift away from its traditional alliance with Russia and towards Europe.

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party entered the vote as the favorite, ahead of three opposition candidates who advocate closer ties with Moscow. His main rival, Russian-Armenian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, who built most of his fortune in Russia, was forced to campaign from house arrest at his mansion outside Yerevan.

Much is at stake for the South Caucasus country of 3 million people, with Moscow, Brussels and Washington watching the vote closely.

Karapetyan’s victory could put Armenia on a path similar to neighboring Georgia, where a billionaire with Russian-made wealth has spent years dismantling pro-Western reforms and pulling the country back to Moscow.

A strong majority for Pashinyan, meanwhile, would empower him to achieve his signature and politically sensitive goal: a peace deal with his longtime foe Azerbaijan and the normalization of relations with Türkiye.

Pashinyan, a former journalist who came to power during the 2018 Velvet Revolution, has campaigned on a platform of peace, arguing that ending Armenia’s decades-long conflict with its neighbors would unlock economic opportunities, increase security and reduce dependence on Russia.

The prime minister, known for his populist and often emotional rhetoric, has sought to forge closer ties with Europe, signaling that Armenia’s future lies in deeper integration with the West and expressing his hope that the country could one day join the European Union.

Pashinyan received support from Donald Trump, who described him as “a great friend and leader”. The United States is taking an increasingly prominent role in efforts to broker a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Sunday’s vote was the first national election since Armenia lost Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan in 2023; this was a traumatic defeat that ended more than three decades of Armenian control over the disputed region.

The opposition tried to portray this loss as evidence of Pashinyan’s failures, accusing him of surrendering historical Armenian lands to his enemies.

However, Pashinyan tried to turn the issue into a political gain. Arguing that Armenia’s pursuit of Karabakh helped trap the country in perpetual conflict and dependence on Russia, he has presented the painful chapter as the necessary starting point for a more secure and prosperous future.

“Pashinyan has a vision for the future, the rest is in the past,” Yerevan lawyer Anahit Sargsyan said after casting her vote in the capital on Sunday.

“We cannot be in endless wars with our neighbors. It is time to move forward,” he said.

The path Pashinyan followed put him in the crosshairs of Moscow, which has long been predicted to have an influence on Armenian politics and economy.

Many Armenians became disappointed with Russia when Moscow did not come to help despite the presence of Russian peacekeepers in the region during Azerbaijan’s capture of Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023. As a result, Pashinyan suspended Armenia’s participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) of six former Soviet states, including Russia; This marks the most dramatic break in relations with Moscow since the country’s independence.

Before the elections, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that Armenia, which has not officially applied for EU membership, was following the same path as Ukraine.

“So where did it start?” Putin said the following, referring to Armenia’s EU efforts. “Ukraine is trying to join the European Union.”

Armenian officials and analysts accused Russia of trying to influence the election through disinformation campaigns in favor of pro-Russian candidates and efforts to repatriate Armenians living in Russia to vote against Pashinyan.

In recent weeks, Moscow has taken a more open approach, imposing a series of trade restrictions affecting everything from flowers to fish, fruit to Armenian brandy.

However, these last resort measures have not harmed the Armenian economy so far.

Buoyed by strong economic growth following the influx of Russian businesses and capital following the invasion of Ukraine, Pashinyan invested heavily in the regions of Armenia where his support was strongest.

But observers have also noted his increasingly personal style of politics and what critics describe as growing authoritarian tendencies in Armenia, which remains a rare democratic outlier in a region largely ruled by strongmen.

Before the elections, Armenian authorities arrested opposition figures, including members of Karapetyan’s party, on charges ranging from vote buying and financial crimes to calls to overthrow the government. Karapetyan himself was detained in June and accused of calling for a seizure of power. He has been campaigning from house arrest ever since.

Pashinyan appeared indecisive at times, engaging in ugly public disputes with refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh, whom he accused of “fleeing” from the region rather than fighting.

Meanwhile, the EU has made little secret of its support for Armenia’s separation from Moscow, largely pushing aside criticism of Pashinyan. Brussels this week announced its first support package of €50 million to help Armenia withstand Russian economic pressure.

Doctor Karen Grigoryan, who voted for Karapetyan on Sunday, said, “Pashinyan is not the same man he was when he came to power.”

“We cannot be friendly with Türkiye and pretend to erase the past,” he said, referring to the mass massacres of Armenians during the Ottoman period, which Yerevan and many western countries recognize as genocide.

Observers say the reason many voters continue to support Pashinyan is largely because the opposition remains deeply discredited and because of its close ties to Russia.

“People choose the lesser of two evils,” said Tatul Hakobyan, a popular Armenian commentator. “Pashinyan’s alternatives are much worse.”