Putin is planning ‘military provocation’ of NATO states as he comes under pressure from Ukraine attacks, European spies say

European spies say Russia is preparing a ‘military provocation’ against NATO countries as Putin’s defenses against Ukraine continue to weaken.

Ukraine’s drone strikes are increasingly targeting the infrastructure supporting Russia’s war effort; Putin even had to greatly scale back his military parade in Red Square this year for fear of Kiev being attacked by drones.

While Putin was under pressure, last week he threatened “nuclear attacks with catastrophic consequences” if the West did not accept its demands on Ukraine.

Latvian intelligence said: Guard: ‘We see signs that Russia is preparing military provocations against the Baltic states or Poland.’ However, this will not be a full-scale attack.

A senior political source from another NATO member country said, “We are collecting intelligence” that the Russian leader is “planning something against the Baltic countries.”

They added that Putin may be willing to test US support for NATO’s smallest countries, such as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

Latvian intelligence reportedly said Russia was ‘considering hybrid attacks such as missiles, drones or other actions designed to send the signal: Stop supporting Ukraine, or you’ll have problems of your own.’

Last week, Putin stopped the operation of drone transfer stations in Belarus after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky threatened to attack.

The cover of a Russian oil refinery in Kapotnya was blown off during a Ukrainian drone attack.

He gave Russia a one-week warning on Friday, saying the equipment was helping Russia launch drone strikes against them.

Keir Giles, a Russia expert at the Chatham House think tank, said: ‘Moscow will seek to disrupt the current trend by escalating horizontal tensions. [spreading the conflict to other countries] or I’m doing something somewhere else. We should not passively expect Russia to lose.’

Kiev has stepped up drone attacks on Russia in recent months, hitting oil refineries that fund Moscow’s war chest.

Russia’s legacy air defense network, designed against aircraft and conventional missiles, is having trouble adapting to Ukraine’s long-range unmanned aerial vehicles, analysts say.

Earlier this month, Ukraine also launched a major attack on a major oil port in St Petersburg, just hours before the opening of Putin’s international investment summit.

Kiev has repeatedly struck refineries, oil terminals, pump stations and export facilities deep within Russian territory.

Among the top targets was the NORSI refinery near Nizhny Novgorod, Russia’s fourth largest refinery with a capacity to process 16 million metric tons of oil per year. It suspended its operations on April 5 following a drone attack.

The Moscow refinery was also hit on May 19, and the Ryazan refinery, which accounts for almost five percent of Russia’s refinery volume, on May 15.

The Perm refinery, which processed about 12.6 million metric tons of oil in 2024, stopped processing on May 7 after a drone attack caused a fire and damage to equipment.

The cumulative effect has been to put increasing pressure on Russia’s energy sector, which remains the main source of financing for the Kremlin’s war machine.