Chris Mason: The crunching trade offs and big numbers Burnham may soon confront
As expected, if Andy Burnham becomes prime minister next month, he will inherit a £4.7bn bill to deliver the Defense Investment Plan (DIP), and that’s before worrying about how he will increase defense spending even further as the next general election approaches.
The figures accompanying the much-delayed plan point to a huge gap that the current government predicts the next government will need to fill this autumn.
Already, sharp concessions to get the DIP out the door have sparked a backlash, including from a sitting minister, Hamish Falconer; He has publicly expressed his frustration at the uncertainty currently surrounding a road widening project for the A46 Newark bypass near his Lincoln constituency.
Finding the thick end of another £5bn from existing budgets could lead to much more gnashing of teeth.
Sir Keir Starmer was in a reflective mood as he took public ownership of the launch of the DIP.
He was keeping his promise to release it before next week’s NATO summit in Ankara, Türkiye, the last fixed foreign event he planned as prime minister.
Going there without him would be further embarrassment for a man who was already headed for the fire escape of leadership.
But new Defense Secretary Dan Jarvis was willing to come to an agreement and give his name, also saving Burnham from having to front the broadcast herself, possibly in just a few weeks’ time.
While Burnham did not comment on the DIP, Defense Secretary Luke Pollard told the BBC there were “regular discussions between Downing Street and Andy’s team about the defense investment plan”.
By observing Sir Keir over his last two years as prime minister, he sought to show the public the brutal compromises he has always faced. All prime ministers face them, but perhaps this one more than most prime ministers.
The combination of an anemic economy, a high tax burden, a high national debt, a spiraling welfare bill and enormous extra demands for defense spending.
Considering that his first attempt to change the welfare system was rejected by his own MPs, the fight became even more complicated.
This won’t be a challenge for him for a very long time.
Former defense secretary Sir Ben Wallace said he felt like the DIP was an attempt to “give Sir Keir a parting gift”.
“But if you put aside the facts and hard figures, you will see that almost nothing has changed,” Sir Ben said.
As Sir Keir laid out the DIP, his tone and language conveyed a knowledgeable perspective on the subject: a prime minister who has scrutinized the numbers, scrutinized the compromises because that’s what it’s all about.
“No matter what the amount is, there will always be those who say, frankly, it’s not enough,” he said.
He acknowledged that this was “the end of my journey” but would “leave the stage knowing that we left this country in a better shape than when we arrived”.
He added: “Are there conflicts between departments and the Treasury? Yes, of course there are, always have been, always will be. At the end of the day the prime minister and the chancellor have to look at the overall decisions of the government, the overall affordability of it, and prioritize between different things.”
He didn’t say good luck Andy, it’s harder than it looks.
But I felt like it was more of a subtext.
