2026 FIFA World Cup boosts prediction market volumes
In this photo illustration, applications for online prediction market sites are shown on an electronic device on February 25, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois.
Scott Olson | Getty Images
The 2026 FIFA World Cup was predicted to be the biggest gambling event in history. For prediction market platforms, this resulted in increased trading volumes in June.
According to user-collected data at Dune Analytics, Kalshi saw more than $31 billion in notional volume during the month; this is an increase of more than 70% compared to May’s total of $17.9 billion. The platform has consistently handled over $1 billion in daily volume since the football tournament began on June 11.
Polymarket’s international event contract exchange set a new record in monthly volume with notional trading exceeding $10.8 billion in June. This reverses the downward trend from April and May, when volume dropped.
Meanwhile, notional volume on Polymarket’s US platform rose to $3.5 billion during the month, from $1.77 billion in May.
Team USA Monday
The USA team will face Belgium in the round of 16 on Monday night. More than $64 million on Kalshi and $122 million on Polymarket have been traded on whether the USA will win the tournament, but the odds of that happening are just 4.3% and 3% on each platform respectively.
World Cup excitement has shaken prediction market platform Rothera, a joint venture of Susquehanna International Group and Susquehanna International Group. robinhood. Rothera debuted in June, when Robinhood began routing certain World Cup contracts on its brokerage to the platform.
Rothera saw $2 billion in notional trading volume during the month and now accounts for 7% of U.S. forecast market volume, according to Bank of America.
All platforms turned to the World Cup to increase traffic. Polymarket launched a competition for awards up to $2 million To anyone who can put together a perfect World Cup knockout round. On the Apple app store, Kalshi boasted in the title of his mobile platform that users could “Trade the World Cup.”
Increased open interest (the total number of active, uncompleted contracts on platforms) may also reflect World Cup excitement. Kalshi’s open positions are currently over $1 billion. Polymarket’s open interest is high at just under $400 million, but that’s where its international platform has been for the past few months.
Sports was the focus of event contract exchanges last month, but how platforms handle the increase in volume could be a sign of how they will handle other contract matters in the future.
Asaf Meir, CEO of Solidus Labs, a market integrity company that has a partnership with Kalshi, said the World Cup is an important moment for platforms because both regulators and institutions are monitoring how platforms are performing.
Meir said outside observers are asking, “Is it safe enough? Is it mature enough? Does it have enough volume?” He said they asked. “The World Cup is a huge pressure test to see whether prediction markets can deliver on their promise to provide a level playing field for all investors over a long period of time in a consistently high volume environment.”
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a business relationship that includes customer acquisition and minority investment.
