Kellie Sloane came in to tidy up the NSW Libs. She’s going to need a bigger broom
Did NSW Opposition Leader Kellie Sloane break a mirror recently? Did you pass under a ladder? Is there a vengeful witch doctor out there after her?
The Liberal brand’s Doomsday Clock had remained uncomfortably close to midnight since Sloane took over in November. Support for the Liberal Party waned in the realignment of politics following the Bondi massacre, which accelerated the rise of One Nation.
With the Liberals already trailing in the polls and facing the mammoth task of hanging up the furniture next March, the Independent Commission Against Corruption’s announcement that it will hold eight weeks of hearings investigating allegations that party figures were involved in corrupt donation schemes is the latest in a long string of bad luck.
It feels somehow symbolic that he learned of the investigation while touring a dog food factory in Western Sydney. There are days when you shouldn’t get out of bed.
It wasn’t all roses before he took over – otherwise Mark Speakman would still be leader – but it’s reasonable to say that the party’s struggles in NSW so far have been to some extent a by-product of voters’ anger at the Liberal brand more generally.
Now. Operation RosnyAs the ICAC calls its investigation, it will focus squarely on the party’s troubled NSW division. The investigation into whether fugitive Sydney property developer Jean Nassif and Liberal apparatchiks and lobbyists Christian Ellis, Jeremy Greenwood, Robert Assaf and Jean-Claude Perrottet were involved in corrupt donation schemes threatens to highlight years of factional bloodshed within the NSW Liberals.
While the ICAC has focused on allegedly dodgy donations, the root of it all is animosity between the rival far-right and the party’s centre-right. Decades of conflict separation on the right It is between former NSW upper house member David Clarke, leader of the ultra-conservative Catholic wing, and Mitchell’s federal MP Alex Hawke, who was once a staff member. A Liberal insider this week described the split as “a Henry VIII-level division in the church”.
Ellis and his friends were all members of the far-right group linked to a group called the NSW Reformers. There is little doubt that the ground the ICAC will cover relates to Hawke’s attempts to challenge his power base in Sydney’s north-west.
Voters are about to take a closer look at how the sausage is made; Just the kind of attention a party with an already beleaguered brand needs like a hole in the head.
While all this was going on, the person tasked with keeping the whole demonstration together, Sloane, a first-term MP, stepped into the leadership without his own choice.
As a relative newcomer and outsider, Sloane will have the advantage of not carrying any of this baggage alone. She can make a convincing case that she’s a new broom, as former Labor leader Jodi McKay did (but ultimately that didn’t work out so well for her).
But navigating a minefield on training wheels is a challenge, and a novice leader faced with the kind of challenges the Liberals are facing would be expected to be able to rely on the guidance of seasoned elders. This latest crisis threatens to significantly weaken their ranks.
sudden resignation last week The party’s former leader in the upper house, Damien Tudehope, has close ties to figures currently in ICAC’s purview, suggesting that some hard-nosed veterans in the party hall may find themselves in a difficult situation.
These major ICAC investigations have a habit of leading to unexpected developments (just ask Gladys Berejiklian or Barry O’Farrell) and there’s no telling where the next casualty might come from. Macquarie Street is filled with whispers about who else might be in the line of fire.
Last week gave a glimpse of how difficult it will be to manage the next few months. Sloane was initially criticized for refusing to insist that ICAC-designated Liberal members be removed before changing course. He then pushed behind the scenes for Tudehope to step aside. Considering he’s not facing any charges, this could set an interesting precedent.
The other challenge for Sloane is that Rosny starts thinking about the old government.
Figures like this David Elliott – a former police minister with a habit of making headlines, good or bad – he seems likely to attract so much attention (the ICAC will investigate whether Ellis, Greenwood and another of Perrottet’s brothers, Charles, solicited or accepted illegal donations from Nassif in exchange for damaging Elliott’s career) is a bad sign.
Elliott seems to know where the bodies are buried and is temperamentally reluctant to keep them there. It won’t be boring if he takes the witness stand. So is the inevitable cross-examination of lawyers representing his political enemies.
Sloane wasn’t there and doesn’t realize his sins, but he may have to stop fostering his team’s ties to the former Coalition government as we get closer to election season.
A few weeks ago, it seemed like a good strategy to point out the number of former ministers on his team and contrast their big infrastructure agenda with the fiscal conservatism of the Minns government. It may not happen for a few weeks.
Michael McGowan is the NSW state political editor.
