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What would be the consequences?

(NewsNation) – President Donald Trump promised Hit Iran on Wednesday nightHe says the ceasefire is “over” but saying it later New US attacks will not mean a return to all-out war.

Trump’s statements drew a reaction from Iran, which threatened to attack oil wells in the Middle East.

Trump raises possibility of strike Kharg IslandIran becoming a critical hub in the oil infrastructure is a possibility he has raised repeatedly throughout the conflict. The island accounts for 90% of Iran’s oil exports, and a possible attack could wipe out large amounts of oil from the global market.

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Iran responded to the president’s latest words by threatening to bomb oil wells in the region if the United States carries out further attacks.

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US allies They are the most likely targets of attacks in the region, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. There is Iran pre-targeted Gulf energy infrastructure following attacks on its own oil infrastructure, including attacks on oil refineries in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait and an attack on a liquefied natural gas hub in Qatar.

Strikes in oil and natural gas fields bring with them significant risks and consequences. Attacks can lead to massive fires that spread rapidly due to the abundance of fuel and release pollutants into the air. Damage to infrastructure could result in continued disruption of operations, further tightening oil supplies from the critical region.

During the First Gulf War in 1991, Iraqi forces set fire to more than 500 oil fields in Kuwait while withdrawing from the country. resulting damage It was considered an environmental disaster on par with Chernobyl and the chemical spill in Bhopal, India.

Environmental damage from oil fires

fires coming from these wells It proved difficult to contain and took approximately nine months to extinguish. Efforts to control the fires included dousing them with seawater, capping wells, cutting off oxygen with explosives, and building infrastructure to divert oil away from the fires.

Oil spilled in these months polluted water and soil in the region. The oil spread on the ground prevented the absorption of oxygen and water, disrupting the fertility of the soil protected by microbes and worms. Oil also flowed into the Persian Gulf, killing nearly 20,000 birds and putting populations of sea cows, dolphins and turtles at risk.

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Smoke from the fires became trapped in the lower levels of the atmosphere, moving beyond the immediate area into surrounding countries and increasing the impact of the fires.

Health effects of oil fires

smoke produced Air pollution from burning oil fields contains some of the same pollutants as air in urban environments, but others rarely occur in the same concentrations. Smoke contains particulate matter, nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides, heavy metals and unburned hydrocarbons that can cause immediate health effects, including respiratory problems and skin irritation.

Veterans exposed to smoke began to experience symptoms of the disease called “Gulf War Illness”, which is characterized by chronic fatigue, headaches, muscle and joint pain, sleep disorders, digestive problems and difficulty concentrating.

Smoke from oil fields is considered only one factor in Gulf War Illness, but a few studies of civilians living near damaged oil infrastructure have shown it to be linked to higher rates of respiratory illnesses, asthma, headaches and dizziness.

As with the Kuwait fires, these effects are unlikely to be limited to the countries where the attacks occurred. US is already attacking Iran’s oil infrastructure 29,800 tons of sulfur dioxide were released The amount of gas released into the air was greater than that released by the eruption of the Eyjafjallajokull volcano in Iceland in 2010. This toxic smoke has spread to Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and China.

Persian Gulf reaction to Iranian attacks

Iran has already launched small-scale drone attacks on oil fields in neighboring countries during the conflict. has been greatly welcomed with a measured, defensive stance. Although leaders expressed a desire to retaliate, there was no significant military response.

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This situation may change if Iran launches more intense attacks. The countries will likely face a choice between continuing diplomatic efforts without U.S. intervention or eroding the alliance that provides them with advanced weapons.

Neighboring countries may also launch their own military attacks. If carried out on Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure, these attacks will intensify the war’s effects on the environment and health.

Gulf countries can also appeal to the United States, demanding greater protection for their infrastructure; This is a demand that will risk drawing America deeper into conflict rather than reaching the exit ramp that the White House seeks.

Countries in the region have defense systems to protect oil and natural gas infrastructure, mostly advanced missile defense systems provided by the United States. However, the vastness of oil and natural gas fields and production facilities makes this defense difficult.

Effects of oil strikes on the global economy

Any widespread disruption to oil infrastructure would also global economyThe Persian Gulf holds approximately 60% of the world’s oil reserves.

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Already, Brent crude oil prices rose It rose to nearly $80 a barrel after Trump’s comments; That’s the highest level in weeks, but still below the conflict’s all-time high of $110 in May. West Texas Intermediate crude oil, which the USA relies on, rose to $73 per barrelIt was $67 before the war.

Strikes against neighboring countries could further reduce the amount of crude and natural gas entering the global supply. While the U.S. is not directly dependent on oil from the Persian Gulf, rising Brent crude oil prices are also pushing up West Texas crude oil prices, potentially signaling a return to higher energy and gas prices for American consumers already disappointed by an inflated price. cost of living.

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