Maharashtra rainfall deficit continues; El Niño impact cited

While rainfall in most parts of Maharashtra has remained below the seasonal average since June 1, parts of Konkan and central Maharashtra recorded rainfall exceeding the normal for July in the previous week.

Meteorological Department data shows that there is a 30-40 percent deficiency in some districts and a 50-70 percent deficiency in some regions, depending on the amount of rainfall expected for this period.

July is the month when agricultural activities depend on adequate soil moisture, and the current shortage is raising concerns among farming communities.

The monsoon had operated in early July, bringing showers to Konkan and central Maharashtra, but this phase has ended. “The monsoon trough has moved to a position that will not support widespread rainfall in the state,” a meteorological department official said. “Systems that could enhance the flow are not currently active,” he said.

Forecasts for next week indicate only light to moderate rain may fall in isolated pockets, with no weather warnings issued for Monday, July 13, 2026 or Tuesday, July 14, 2026. Dry conditions are likely to continue across the state unless the weather systems that sustain the monsoon flow reactivate.

The El Niño situation in the Pacific Ocean strengthened during the monsoon season and its impact on rainfall distribution was observed across the state. “El Niño generally suppresses monsoon rains in the Indian subcontinent,” said a climate analyst. “Records from 1950 onwards show that strong El Niño years are associated with below-normal precipitation, and this year’s phase appears comparable in intensity to 2015-16.” That year had witnessed a major impact of the Indian monsoon.

Precipitation distribution varies regionally. While Konkan and parts of central Maharashtra recorded above-average rainfall, Marathwada and many parts of central Maharashtra are experiencing deficiencies. The irregular pattern caused moisture stress in some areas, although some areas received excessive water. While near normal rainfall was reported in Tamil Nadu, one of the southern states, below average rainfall was recorded in other states.

Temperatures increased in many regions during the break in monsoon activity. “The rise in temperature and drought are increasing the pressure on existing crops,” said an agriculture extension officer from a budget-deficit district. “Farmers are waiting for the next period to decide on planting and irrigation schedules.”

The meteorological department stated that the revival of rainfall will depend on the formation and movement of weather systems that drive the monsoon circulation. “We are monitoring the development of low pressure areas in the Bay of Bengal,” the official added. “If such systems form, they may bring rainfall in the coming weeks.” Forecasters noted that the current drought could continue until these systems become active.