The end of fossil fuel era? It’s nowhere near

It was replaced by a “scenario of policies that are considered as“ policy proposals, even if the certain measures required to realize these proposals are not yet fully developed, but also as “policy proposals” (steps).

Two new scenarios, fossil fuel demand and carbon dioxide emissions have largely changed a faster decline and a faster decline under the APS model, which envisaged the highest consumption until 2029. The decline was so meaningful under the latter that it confident the idea that trillions of dollar fossil fuel reserves would be stranded.

Western policy makers were convinced that new scenarios represented something that resembled a prediction and thus the demand would really fall. But the more powerful consumption is expected, including me. In my case, I have marked that the demand for coal will be more adhesive.

This year, IEA re -publishing the current policy scenario, which shows that neither oil nor gas demand cannot peake for this decade, contrary to the previous assumption, according to half a dozen persons who have reviewed a draft of the report. They all described this under the condition of anonymity. The final report may still change. IEA refused to comment.

According to the IEA draft, under the existing policies, “the use of oil and natural gas increases to 2050”. According to my draft calculations, coal consumption peaked in the 2030s, but the demand in the 2050 will be more than 50 percent higher than expected before.

The most intense consumption has become the sacred bowl of energy debate. However, the exact year the request hit the summit is much less important than the shape of the consumption curve before and after this summit. Focusing on the road rather than the highest point is very important to understand where the world is going.

For oil, consumption curves under the recovered CPS show ongoing growth, including the 2040s. The draft says that the annual growth in the next 25 years is far below the historical ratio, but in the middle of the century, “Oil continues to be the only largest fuel”. Renewable energy comes with gas and coal in the third and fourth place.

By 2050, IEA pens in the consumption of 114 million barrels of oil per day under CPS – this is compared to approximately 93 million barrels by 2050, which was seen under the APS scenario until 2050 last year.

It is important to remember that IEA will publish other scenarios that show alternative ways, and that the current policy scenario is not an estimation. Nothing changes, and if governments sit in their hands, it is an image of how the world can look in 25 years. In the past, the scenario tended to be inadequate renewable energy resources and support energy resources such as oil, gas and coal; So if history is a guide, maybe it may be important.

I hope. As is negotiated in the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, the increase in global temperatures is far away from pre -industrial averages to 1.5 degrees. If I’m right, the world probably sets out for 3 degrees.

When IEA releases its old but new script, there will be a war to control the message. The fossil fuel industry, which is on the top of Saudi Arabia, will justify the demand for more powerful oil, gas and coal than expected.

Maybe. However, the possibility of more pollution is an call for action.

For now, the world is not an energy transition, but a addition of energy in which renewable energies fill oil, gas and coal. Regardless of the good -intentioned green longings, unless governments make significant changes, the situation will remain this for years, even if not for decades.

Hope is not a policy.

Javier Blas is a Bloomberg vision columnist covering energy and commodities. The world for sale is the joint author of merchants who compress the resources of Money, Power and the Earth.

Bloomberg

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