A difficult week for Christine Fréchette

So far, it was almost flawless. This success is partly explained by its reassuring style. Those around her say she is studious and rigorous. She thinks before she speaks, avoids toga effects and stays away from confrontation for show purposes and other childishness of politics.

Since she became Madam Prime Minister, the perception of Quebecers has changed. She is tied statistically with Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, as the person who would make the best head of government. His party also rose in voting intentions. After the low of 10% at the end of March, the CAQ now has 20% of voting intentions according to the poll aggregator Qc125. An impressive and unexpected rebound.

This rise is, however, fragile. No less than 60% of CAQ voters say they are open to changing their minds. What they saw this week must not have impressed them.

Not so long ago, the CAQ’s “top priority” was education. For M^me Fréchette is the cost of living.

On Monday, she increased the number of announcements which will return most often symbolic sums into the pockets of citizens, and which will also benefit those who have become richer since the pandemic.

The problem is that at the same time, Quebec is taking money back with the other hand.

This week, the government was in the process of changing the building code, with regulatory increases that will increase the cost of housing. The CAQ ultimately postponed the entry into force of these standards by one year.

But another problem remains. Next January, the insurance tax will increase from 9% to 9.98%. This amounts to a drain of 300 million in your pockets.

Some reports have highlighted this contradiction in recent days. During the study of budgetary appropriations on Wednesday, Liberal parliamentary leader André Fortin questioned Mr.^me Fréchette on this subject. She didn’t know what he was talking about. Same embarrassing silence from those around him. We are still talking about a measure which concerns his priority and which almost cancels out the effect of all his announcements. On the one hand, the State will give back 338 million annually with the recent CAQ announcements. On the other hand, it will earn 300 million with the increase in insurance tax.

Pressed by Mr. Fortin, M^me Fréchette was also unable to quantify the net debt. On this, I am tempted to be charitable. Politics is not a competition Budding geniuses. The Prime Minister would still have appeared better if she had been able to give an order of magnitude of this debt. Or at least, if the armada of senior civil servants at his side could have helped him. However, the subject is topical – in December 2023, the government modified the law to postpone the reduction of net debt. This made it possible, among other things, to finance tax cuts, a key measure for the cost of living.

These are the kinds of moments that can hurt in a leaders’ debate.

That said, Chef Charles Milliard didn’t look good. Unsurprisingly, he criticized the “electoralism” of the abolition of the QST for certain prepared foods and hygiene products. But would he go back? He doesn’t know it. His criticism is suddenly less credible…

In a few days, these little incidents will be forgotten. But they should still serve as a warning.

Another source of last-day worries will be more difficult to erase.

When he left, François Legault issued this warning: the person who succeeded him would have to unite the blue and red wings. In other words: everyone must sit as a team on the same fence.

In 2012, to confirm his break with the PQ, Mr. Legault said he would support the No vote. He said it after being bombarded with questions, in the hope that the media would move on to another subject. In 2014, he repeated it with the same exasperation.

There were no real consequences in public opinion or in the party. Because in the following years, there was never a serious possibility of a referendum. The unity of the CAQ was easier to maintain.

M^me Fréchette is now undergoing a double test: the possibility of a referendum and the arrival of a new leader, who does not yet have the moral authority of the party’s founder.

Pressed with questions this week by the Liberals, Labor Minister Jean Boulet answered what everyone guessed: a former activist in the Liberal Party of Canada, he would vote no. The same question was asked of Mathieu Lacombe, Minister of Culture, who would vote yes.

In memory, this is the first time that a CAQ member has said this.

As a journalist, you cannot both denounce rhetoric and criticize elected officials who are frank. Their candor was refreshing. But it illustrates the challenge that awaits M^me Frechette. It will only grow during the next election campaign if the PQ has a chance of winning a majority.