A news analysis of the war front that could sink Trump’s Iran talks

BEIRUT — President Trump has repeatedly promised for weeks (at least 37 times, by some estimates) that a deal with Iran would be imminent. But an issue far from the epicenter of the conflict could become the biggest obstacle to any agreement: Lebanon.

This destructive potential was on clear display for 18 hours starting Sunday, when Israel attacked the Lebanese capital Beirut, prompting Iran to launch missiles at Israel for what it said was a ceasefire violation. The Israeli attacks came after rockets from Hezbollah militants hit northern Israel.

The disputes have escalated into missile and air strikes that threaten to plunge the region into all-out conflict once again, even expanding the war to include Yemen’s Houthi rebels.

Calm was restored shortly after President Trump frantically demanded that Israel and Iran stop “shooting” immediately. He then adopted a scolding tone when insisting—once again—that negotiations would soon end the war “should ignorance or stupidity get in the way.”

But the situation has exposed the fragility of Trump’s neither war nor peace approach to negotiations. Another reminder of the tenuous nature of the US-Iran ceasefire came on Tuesday when Iran shot down a US Army Apache helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz. After Trump said that the United States would “forcefully” respond, the army launched an attack on Iranian targets.

For Israel, and especially Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the fragility of the ceasefire may be important.

Many Israelis fear that any U.S. deal with the Islamic Republic would leave them facing an implacable enemy; Even without nuclear weapons, that enemy could threaten them with missiles or attacks from allies such as Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite militant group that Iran has transformed over decades into a capable paramilitary group and political party.

“Trump does not see Lebanon as a priority, so he will be flexible on Lebanon if he can reach a nuclear deal with Iran,” said Beirut-based geopolitical analyst Joe Macaron. However, Israel sees Lebanon as “a key area where it can have veto power in US-Iran talks.”

“Whenever Netanyahu feels like this is close to being over, he does something in Lebanon because this is the area where he can really influence the negotiations,” he said.

Multiple US-brokered ceasefires between the Lebanese and Israeli governments have failed to stop the fighting. Hezbollah has rejected all of these agreements, including one signed last week calling on it to unilaterally cease operations and withdraw from southern Lebanon.

While Hezbollah continues to attack northern Israel, the Israeli army intensified its occupation of Lebanese territory.

Iran, meanwhile, says a ceasefire with the US requires guns to be silenced on all fronts, including Lebanon, a non-starter position for Israel.

Although Iran complained about Israel’s previous attacks on Southern Lebanon, the attacks did not cause any reaction. But Tehran has drawn a red line in Beirut’s southern suburb of Dahiyeh, where Hezbollah dominates.

This week’s talks were the worst break in the US-Iran ceasefire, but not the first time they were nearly derailed by Israel’s action in Lebanon.

In April, Trump nearly pressured Netanyahu to reduce hostilities with Hezbollah after powerful attacks on Beirut threatened to break the ceasefire just days after it took effect.

When Netanyahu ordered the attack on Dahiye this month, Trump called the Israeli prime minister, told him to call off the attack, and accused him of being “crazy.” Trump later said he was “a little nervous about the constant fighting with Lebanon.”

Hezbollah joined the war in March, just days after the start of the US-Israeli offensive against Iran, by launching missiles and drones into northern Israel in solidarity with Iran and responding to Israel’s repeated violations of a previous ceasefire signed in November 2024.

Israel responded with a brutal air strike and deepened its ground assault on southern Lebanon, with the aim of neutralizing or destroying Hezbollah and establishing a buffer zone in Lebanese territory. Lebanon’s Health Ministry says some 3,666 people have died so far, a quarter of the population has been displaced and more than a tenth of the country is occupied.

Netanyahu’s willingness to anger Trump this week is partly a function of electoral politics. He faces re-election in October and is trailing in the polls. It is also struggling with Israeli public opinion clamoring for a tougher stance against Hezbollah, with or without U.S. approval.

Meanwhile, Iran has its own calculations about coming to Hezbollah’s aid, even if it means triggering a bigger conflagration.

“This was a multi-pronged effort to reassert deterrence,” said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, a London-based think tank.

“This was an existential war for Iran, and because it survived, it thinks about the next day,” Vakil said. “He wants to show his people, and also the region, that it is here to stay, that it is not a defeated but an unpredictable Islamic Republic.”

Vakil added that Iran’s new leadership also wants to show that the more cautious policies adopted by the previous supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed on the first day of the war, are no longer valid.

Following the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, Israel went after the so-called Axis of Resistance, which consists of Iran-backed militias and governments, including Hezbollah. Iran largely backed down while Israel eviscerated them, assassinated or overthrew their leaders.

But Sadegh Larijani, head of Iran’s Conformity Discernment Council, said this week’s conflict with Israel, the first time Iran has engaged in direct hostilities in defense of an ally, represents a significant shift.

“Iran’s attack in defense of Lebanon was not merely a military response; rather, it was an official statement of a strategic doctrine,” said Larijani, brother of Ali Larijani, Iran’s top security official who was killed early in the war.

Larijani said, “This action sent a clear message that if one of the parties of the Resistance Axis is attacked, this will result in a response beyond geographical borders and will change the equations of the region.”

This week’s missile bombardment has also contributed to good public relations, especially in Lebanon, where the government has moved to stop Iran’s patronage of Hezbollah and limit Iran’s influence on the country’s affairs. (The Lebanese leadership insisted that ceasefire negotiations with Israel be held separately from Iran.)

But to many Lebanese, especially the Shiites who form the backbone of Hezbollah’s support, Iran’s willingness to go to war on Hezbollah’s behalf contrasts sharply with the government’s conciliatory policies towards Israel and is not in the government’s favor.

“The Iranians won by points because they achieved a symbolic goal, even though they didn’t do anything too damaging in Israel,” Macaron said.

It also seems clear that Iran sees Trump’s reluctance to restart the war as an opportunity.

Vakil said, “Iranians are reading Trump correctly. They are aware that he wants to leave.”

“But they also calculate that none of this is going to go away or be easily resolved. And they’re trying to maintain that partnership.” [with Hezbollah] “They’ve been building it for decades,” he said.

A new conflict over Lebanon seems imminent as neither side has any intention of backing down.

On Tuesday, Israel stepped up its attacks on Tire, which was home to about 100,000 people before the war and is considered the economic heart of southern Lebanon. Earlier in the day, the Israeli army issued the evacuation order for the entire city for the first time, including the Christian quarter that had been excluded from previous attacks.