‘75%’ chance of ending the war
TRUMP TALKS UP PUTIN SUMMIT
Donald Trump is meeting his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday and the US president reckons there’s a 75% chance of the get-together resulting in a deal to end the war in Ukraine.
As we mentioned yesterday, those in Ukraine and across Europe are significantly less sure that an agreement will be reached, let alone one that doesn’t see Trump hand Putin whatever he wants.
Speaking to Fox News Radio on Thursday, Trump said there was a “25% chance that this meeting will not be a successful meeting”, but added: “He [Putin] really, I believe now, he’s convinced that he’s going to make a deal, he’s going to make a deal. I think he’s going to, and we’re going to find out.”
The US president, who has spent months writing social media posts in all caps at the Russian president while not achieving any progress in ending the war, said he thought the threat of sanctions had played a role in the two presidents meeting this week, Reuters reports. He also said that the speculated — but not confirmed — “second meeting” involving the pair and potentially Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would be more decisive, The Guardian highlights.
“The second meeting is going to be very, very important, because that’s going to be a meeting where they make a deal. And I don’t want to use the word ‘divvy’ things up, but you know, to a certain extent, it’s not a bad term, OK?” Trump said.
Zelenskyy spent Thursday being hosted in Downing Street by UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer as the pair debriefed the meeting involving Trump and European leaders on Wednesday, where the goals for the Alaska summit were discussed (and the concerns over Trump and Putin just “divvying up” Ukraine were aired).
Meanwhile in Moscow, Putin told top officials gathered in the Kremlin that he believed the US was making “quite energetic efforts to stop the fighting, end the crisis, and reach agreements of interest to all parties involved in this conflict”, The New York Times reports.
Putin said an agreement over Ukraine “would create long-term conditions of peace between our countries, in Europe, and in the world as a whole, if we reach agreements in the next stages in the field of strategic offensive arms control”.
The paper says the Kremlin also signalled it was interested in discussing other issues with the Americans on Friday, such as economic links and nuclear arms.
Reuters reports US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters on Thursday that Trump would be going into the talks hoping to achieve a stop to the fighting in Ukraine, but that a comprehensive solution to the war would take longer.
“Let’s see how the talks go. And we’re hopeful. We want there to be a peace. We’re going to do everything we can to achieve one, but ultimately it’ll be up to Ukraine and Russia to agree to one,” Rubio said.
Elsewhere, the likes of the BBC and CNN have features on what each side wants from the Alaskan summit, as well as what’s at stake. The former has also spoken to residents in Kyiv who believe Russia has no interest in agreeing to or abiding by a ceasefire.
The media’s obsession with Trump’s fascination with Putin is also covered by The Associated Press, which reckons the summit “could be a decisive moment for both the war in Ukraine and the US leader’s anomalous relationship with his Russian counterpart”. The AP leads with a feature documenting the two men’s relationship over the years.
Meanwhile, Zelenskyy posted on social media after his meeting with Starmer that the pair had “discussed in considerable detail the security guarantees that can make peace truly durable if the United States succeeds in pressing Russia to stop the killings and engage in genuine, substantive diplomacy.”
Regardless of the outcome of the Alaska summit, I think we can already predict how a lot of the coverage is going to go.
US ‘DISGUST’ AT AUSTRALIA’S PALESTINE RECOGNITION
On the ABC’s 7.30 program last night the US ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee claimed the Australian government’s decision to recognise Palestine was met with “disgust” by some within the Trump administration.
“There’s an enormous level of disappointment and some disgust,” Huckabee said. “I don’t know that the president used that word, [but] I would say that is a characterisation of a sentiment. I think it does express the emotional sentiment, a sense of, ‘You’ve got to be kidding… why would they be doing this? And why would they be doing it now?’”
Huckabee also declared: “As Israel’s closest partner, we would have expected that there would have been some heads up [of the decision to recognise a Palestinian state].”
As the ABC points out, Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong has said she spoke to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio about the government’s intentions. “As a matter of courtesy, I did want to give him advance notice of our announcement,” she said earlier this week.
Australia’s announcement that it will recognise a Palestinian state at the UN General Assembly next month follows similar declarations from allies such as the UK, France and Canada. Earlier this week, the Nine papers reported the White House had said US President Donald Trump wouldn’t criticise Albanese’s announcement.
“As the president stated, he would be rewarding Hamas if he recognises a Palestinian state, and he doesn’t think they should be rewarded. So he is not going to do that,” a White House official said. “However, the president is not married to any one solution as it pertains to building a more peaceful region.”
The Nine papers found themselves part of the story yesterday when Hamas denied the newspapers’ reporting that claimed its co-founder and senior official Sheikh Hassan Yousef had praised Albanese’s “political courage” in recognising Palestine (alleged comments the Coalition predictably jumped all over). The group said Yousef is in prison and thus would have been unable to communicate with media outlets, Brett Worthington at the ABC recalls.
At the top of The Sydney Morning Herald overnight has been a follow-up report by the Nine papers which says “two senior Hamas officials have confirmed the organisation welcomes Australia’s decision to recognise a Palestinian state”. The report goes on to highlight that Prime Minister Anthony Albanese flagged a Hamas Telegram post disavowing the earlier statement and “told media outlets on Thursday not to promote propaganda from the militant organisation”.
ROUNDTABLE TO DOMINATE NEXT WEEK
We can’t let the week end without another mention of the government’s upcoming productivity — sorry, Economic Reform Roundtable.
With the event kicking off on Tuesday, chair of the Productivity Commission Danielle Wood will address the National Press Club in Canberra the day before, with Treasurer Jim Chalmers no doubt listening in.
Yesterday’s leaked Treasury document outlining recommended outcomes from the roundtable had Coalition leader Sussan Ley questioning whether the whole thing was now a waste of time.
“That just tells me this whole thing is a stitch-up,” Ley said. “When I read information that says it’s all been choreographed, it’s all been lined up, even to the level of announcements being made from outcomes, I wonder whether people who are attending this roundtable are indeed wasting their time.”
Guardian Australia reports the shadow treasurer Ted O’Brien will today tell the Menzies Research Institute “it looks like the roundtable has been engineered to rubber stamp a doubling down on Labor’s failed tax and spend strategy”, calling next week’s event a “privileged talkfest”.
The site points out what many others have previously, namely that O’Brien has in fact accepted an invitation to attend the roundtable.
ON A LIGHTER NOTE…
Ten-year-old Bodhana Sivanandan from north-west London has become the youngest person to earn a female international chess master title.
The BBC reports the title is “the second highest-ranking title given exclusively to women, second only to woman grandmaster”.
Earlier this month, Bodhanam, who first took up chess during the pandemic, also became the youngest female chess player to ever beat a grandmaster.
The chess prodigy from Harrow pulled off the win against 60-year-old Grandmaster Peter Wells in the last round of the 2025 British Chess Championships in Liverpool, the International Chess Federation said.
“Sivanandan’s victory at 10 years, five months and three days beats the 2019 record held by American Carissa Yip (10 years, 11 months and 20 days),” the federation said in a statement.
International chess master Malcolm Pein said of Bodhanam: “She’s so composed, she’s so modest and yet she’s so absolutely brilliant at chess. She could easily become the women’s world champion, or maybe the overall world champion. And certainly I believe that she’s on course to become a grandmaster.”
Say What?
We loved his wit and his sharp insight, and the deep love of cinema that underpinned it all.
Anthony Albanese
The prime minister paid tribute to film critic David Stratton, who yesterday died aged 85.
CRIKEY RECAP
Cash, Joyce, Hastie and co keep pushing Ley’s Coalition (far) right into the margins
For all that the Ley-era Coalition is supposed to be a work in progress — with a fundamental policy review slowly unfolding — the same dynamic that has driven the alliance since 2007 is still in place: right-wingers in both the Nationals and the Liberals recognise no limits or rules in trying to push the Coalition further and further to the margins, while moderates mount little pushback beyond backgrounding the media on their unhappiness.
Leader Sussan Ley is being rather haplessly dragged along in their wake.
Trump’s checklist for establishing a fascist government (Part IV)
Over the past 24 hours, US National Guard troops have begun appearing on the streets of Washington, DC. Trump deployed the troops to the city to fight the apparent “bloodthirsty criminals” and “roving mobs of wild youth” assailing the nation’s capital. He has also superseded the local mayor and law enforcement — powers he has because DC is not a state.
The pretext was an alleged attack on a former employee of the “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE) for which two 15-year-olds have been arrested and charged with “unarmed carjacking”, according to DC police.
Despite Trump’s claims, violent crime in Washington is in fact on track to hit a 30-year low — something the US president crowed about as recently as May when he said: “Crime is down in Washington DC, street crime, violent crime by 25%.”
Chairman’s Lounge disclosures, Fatima Payman’s documents, and Tinkerer Taylor Sorry Who?
Ah, the Qantas Chairman’s Lounge, that warm, luxurious albatross around the neck of our political class. It’s so snug it’s easy to forget it’s there at all.
As Crikey contributor and Open Politics founder Sean Johnson pointed out to us, three politicians have overlooked noting the lush lounge membership in their private interest disclosures for the 48th Parliament: Nationals MP Pat Conaghan, former Nationals deputy MP Michael McCormack (regarding his wife’s membership), and Liberal Senator for South Australia Leah Blyth.
Each swiftly thanked Sean for alerting them and moved to update the register. With no official body tasked with checking politicians’ interest statements and enforcing rules of disclosure, it’s no wonder mistakes happen. (Bizarrely, senators don’t even have to declare benefits if they are received in common with many other senators. But Blyth declared her membership last time, so we checked in regardless.)
READ ALL ABOUT IT
AI designs antibiotics for gonorrhoea and MRSA superbugs (BBC)
Argentina rocked as contaminated medical fentanyl kills up to 96 patients (The Guardian)
The end of negative gearing as we know it? Spender calls for new income tax system (The Age) ($)
Echoes of robodebt: Lawyer warns Labor after hundreds illegally denied payments (The Sydney Morning Herald) ($)
Top bureaucrats barred from flying business between Sydney, Melbourne (AFR)
Apple plots expansion into AI robots, home security and smart displays (Bloomberg) ($)
THE COMMENTARIAT
Can Jim Chalmers reap a healthy crop with the help of his big worm farm? — Michelle Grattan (The Conversation): One observer describes next week’s economic roundtable this way: “Chalmers has opened a can of worms — and everybody has got a worm”.
Even those close to the roundtable are feeling overwhelmed by the extent of the worm farm. There are many hundreds of submissions, five Productivity Commission reports, Treasury background papers, and stakeholders in the media spruiking their opinions ahead of the event.
Business, unions and the welfare sector have largely settled into their predictable wish lists.
Scott Farquhar thinks Australia should let AI train for free on creative content. He overlooks one key point — Josh Taylor (Guardian Australia): In many of the industries, AI could have devastating effects. In news, for example, AI summaries in Google search already mean people click through to stories less frequently for information, and referrals from AI chatbots compared to the amount of times that AI crawls a page are even worse.
To argue that fair use for AI based on the US law is something Australia should aspire to overlooks that it’s hardly settled law, and is being hard fought in the courts. Rushing to give the tech companies what they want in the name of innovation for one new industry could come at the expense of many other industries.
