Emirati rescue, Saudi fury: Middle East heavyweights split over Yemen

ADEN, Yemen — Stranded at Aden airport with an invitation from Saudi Arabia that he could not refuse – but very much wanted to refuse – Aidarous al-Zubaidi tried to buy time by going into detail on protocol points that delayed the plane’s departure from Yemen by several hours.

The Yemeni leader, who leads a separatist group supported by the Emirates but at odds with Saudi Arabia, knew he would not like what awaited him in Riyadh. So he continued to linger.

Then he got a call telling him the escape plan was ready.

Al-Zubaidi rushed for this, taking five of his top lieutenants to a military camp in Aden. From there, he scrambled two convoys as decoys, then headed for the nearby beach, where an Emirati drone stood guard overhead. He was on a ship to Somalia in the early hours of the morning and from there flew to Abu Dhabi, the Emirati capital.

Al-Zubaidi’s daring escape this month – the details of which were confirmed by angry statements from officials in Aden, militias, port workers and Saudi military officials – was the tipping point in an increasingly bitter fight between America’s two most important allies in the Middle East; It is a conflict that calls Yemen’s very existence into question, even as it promises more suffering for a people already struggling with one of the world’s worst humanitarian disasters.

“I’ve never seen the Saudis this angry. Period,” said Mohammed Al-Basha, a US-based expert and founder of US risk consultancy Basha Report, which focuses on the Middle East and Africa.

“Saudis feel that the Emirates are not an honest broker in Yemen and beyond,” he said. “They feel betrayed.”

Aidarous al-Zubaidi, leader of Yemen’s Southern Transitional Council, sits for an interview while attending the United Nations General Assembly meeting in New York in 2023.

(Ted Shaffrey / Associated Press)

The rift, the result of sharply diverging geopolitical and trade policies over the years that transformed Riyadh and Abu Dhabi from close allies to friendly rivals and then bitter enemies, has strained relations in the Middle East, Africa and Southeast Asia. The spat between the two energy industry leaders is likely to roil markets and investment and disrupt the plans of the US president, who sees both countries as key partners in trade and diplomacy.

The fight flared dramatically last month when the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a separatist group led by al-Zubaidi, seized much of the country’s south from Yemen’s internationally recognized government and appeared on the verge of declaring a separatist state in the resource-rich region.

The attack came as a surprise to Riyadh, which partnered with Abu Dhabi more than a decade ago in a devastating military campaign against the Houthis, an Iran-backed group that seized Yemen’s capital Sanaa in 2014. The STC, which was established in 2017 to reestablish South Yemen as an independent state and to which the Emirates provides military support and funding, joined the anti-Houthi campaign in 2022. Saudi-backed Yemeni government. But the front lines were at a stalemate until the STC’s final advance.

Saudi Arabia, which neighbors one of the areas captured by STC separatists, initially appeared to accept the STC’s gambit to control more territory.

But he soon launched airstrikes on what he said were Emirati arms shipments to the separatists (a charge the Emirate denies), followed by a violent offensive that drove the STC from all areas it had captured and allowed government forces to seize the group’s stronghold in Aden. Meanwhile, the Yemeni government told the Emirates to end its military presence in the country.

With the separatists almost completely defeated, Saudi Arabia invited or ordered al-Zubaidi and more than 50 other STC delegates to Riyadh to discuss the future of southern Yemen, depending on who you talk to. Al-Zubaydi had good reason to fear that he would be imprisoned or at least forced to surrender. That’s why he ran away.

Saudi Arabia branded him a “fugitive” while the Yemeni government accused him of treason.

A day later, an STC delegate in Riyadh appeared on Yemeni state television: He declared the group’s disbandment; Many STC members outside Saudi Arabia insisted that this was done under duress and was invalid because Saudi Arabia was holding the STC delegation hostage.

But on Sunday, STC members in Riyadh met with other Yemeni politicians in what was described as a “consultative meeting” on the future of southern Yemen; observers said the move was aimed at rebutting any pressure from Riyadh.

Pro-government tribal forces took control of several military facilities belonging to the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council in Mukalla, Yemen, on January 3.

(Anatolia, via Getty Images)

At the heart of the dispute between Saudi Arabia and the UAE over Yemen is the difference in worldview between Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan.

When bin Salman first came to prominence as Saudi defense minister in 2015, he adopted a belligerent foreign policy that led him to launch a failed offensive against the Houthis and kidnap Lebanon’s prime minister. Saudi Arabia cooperated with the UAE and Bahrain to impose a four-year blockade on Qatar in 2017. But the perspective has since shifted to prioritize regional stability for the sake of economic prosperity.

UAE, on the other hand, has proven to be obstructive. Not only did President Trump normalize diplomatic relations with Israel during his first term, going against Saudi Arabia’s long-standing conditions for a pan-Arab peace with Israel, but he also created a network of proxies, military bases, ports, and secret assets that have threatened the governments of various nations across the Red Sea and Africa over the past decade.

Nowhere is this more evident than in Sudan, where critics have condemned the UAE’s support for the Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary group accused of genocide in the country’s civil war. (The UAE denies aiding the RSF and says their goal is Sudan’s territorial integrity, despite extensive evidence to the contrary.)

Since the rupture over Yemen, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have engaged in a full-blown media war, with influencers and media figures targeting each other on social media and state-backed channels airing hits. On Monday, Saudi Arabia organized a media visit to the southern Yemeni port city of Mukalla, where the Yemeni government has accused the UAE of running a secret prison.

Elsewhere in the region, relationships and alliances are rapidly being realigned.

Members of the Yemeni Armed Forces took control of the city of Seiyun following the withdrawal of UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council forces.

(Mohammad Daher/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

Shortly after al-Zubaidi’s escape, the Somali government ripped up its security cooperation and trade agreements with the UAE; this includes a concession allowing Emirati logistics giant DP World to operate out of the port of Berbera (the port used by al-Zubaidi for his escape).

Observers note that the UAE has lost its military flight permits over Egypt, Sudan and Saudi Arabia. The management of Al-Kufra, an airport in Libya that has become an important part of the logistics pipeline to the UAE’s allies in Sudan, has announced that it will be closed for a month.

Saudi Arabia is building its own military network even as it dismantles the UAE’s military network.

A Somali official, who discussed regional dynamics on condition of anonymity, said that Saudi Arabia is planning a military alliance with Egypt and Somalia, and that Saudi officials are pressuring Somaliland not to allow Israel to establish a base on its territory. Türkiye is also making progress with Saudi Arabia; A huge confrontation for two long-time rivals. Riyadh also plans to buy Chinese warplanes from Pakistan to deliver to Yemen.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has worked to remove Emirati influence from Yemen. Commanders in Aden interviewed by The Times said Riyadh had agreed to pay the monthly salaries of all fighters, which amount to about $80 million. UAE-backed politicians were expelled from the Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council and replaced with names more favorable to Saudi Arabia.

Despite the STC changing its stance, it is unclear whether the UAE will accept losing its foothold in the country.

“For now, the UAE appears to be focused on soft power in southwestern Yemen, as it is in Somaliland. Whether this will eventually translate into supporting an armed rebellion is an open question,” Al-Basha said. he said.

Despite anger over what many see as Saudi Arabia sabotaging the long-overdue separation, Aden remains calm for now. (Yemen was two separate nations before unification in 1990; southerners resented the move. They unsuccessfully attempted secession in 1994).

Thousands of people attended a pro-STC rally in downtown Aden on Friday, waving flags of the South Yemeni state, al-Zubaidi posters and the occasional Emirati banner. They chanted slogans vowing to “sacrifice ourselves for the South” as an MC launched a call and response.

“Do you want a Yemeni president? Do you want a federal Yemen? Do you want a half-solution?”

“NO!” each time the crowd roared.

“So what do you want?”

“South!”

Dhiaa Al-Hashimi, a 44-year-old English teacher, said Saudi Arabia had overstepped the mark.

“This wasn’t about the UAE or anyone else. [a separate country] We have been behind President Al-Zubaidi since 1994.

“We entered into a partnership with the northerners to liberate the capital from the Houthis,” he said. But unfortunately they want an alternative homeland in the south.”

Nearby, 37-year-old Sanad Abdulaziz was more emphatic.

“We want the South and we will fight for it,” he said. From now on, we see Saudi Arabia as a target.”