Americans’ pessimism about the economy cuts across political lines | US economy

Donald Trump isn’t making America feel great again.

Nine months into the second Trump administration, Americans are feeling pretty bad. More than half (53%) believe the economy is worsening, according to Harris’s latest poll for the Guardian. That’s slightly better than the 58% who thought the situation would get worse in late April, when financial markets were still reeling from the president’s “redemption day” tariffs. Nearly 60% think the cost of living has worsened since the beginning of the year; 47 percent say the job market is worse.

Of course, there is a partisan bias in the responses. Only 24 percent of Republicans think the economy is getting worse, while 60 percent of independents and 67 percent of Democrats think the economy is getting worse. But there are worrying signs that evil energies are seeping into the bloodstream of the Maga base. Half of rural Americans voted They have become more pessimistic about the state of the economy since the beginning of the summer, by a whopping 69% to 29% margin over Trump last November.

Bad feelings begin to contaminate your desires. More than a third (38%) of rural Americans say they are more pessimistic than they were a few months ago about their ability to achieve the American dream, while only 25% are more optimistic. By contrast, urban Americans, who, according to Trump, must be cowering under their beds and desperately waiting for the National Guard to rid their cities of crime and squalor, became more optimistic than pessimistic by a margin of 41 percent to 28 percent.

Among Americans, another stronghold of the Maga base, who voted for the president by a 56% to 42% margin, pessimism also outpaces optimism by 38% to 26%. Americans with at least a bachelor’s degree feel more cheerful: 43% say they are more optimistic, and only 26% say they are more pessimistic about their chances.

The Guardian’s survey is consistent with other sources, such as the University of Michigan’s survey. consumer sentiment The index has shown a sharp deterioration since the beginning of the year. This also creates something of a dilemma, because the gloom of America is in tension with the immediate economic reality of Americans.

The US economy is growing steadily, although it has slowed down slightly compared to last year. While slightly higher than last year, the unemployment rate remains at just over 4%, which is still near historic lows.

The starkest contrast is between Americans’ pessimism and the stellar performance of the stock market. Despite Trump’s destabilizing impact on financial markets, the S&P 500 is up nearly 13% this year, driven by increased investment in and interest in artificial intelligence (AI). This gives a healthy boost to household balance sheets. Yet while 37 per cent of respondents to the Guardian survey reported their financial security had worsened, only 25 per cent said it had improved.

Some commentators suggest that the disconnect between the technology-driven stock market boom and Americans’ financial distress may be due to the nature of the technology driving it. During the dotcom boom, the previous era of technology-fueled financial profligacy, people were excited about all the new things the internet would bring. Silicon Valley’s message to the great unwashed today is: AI is coming for all our jobs, and perhaps for human civilization itself.

I would argue for more mundane explanations. For starters, the prosperity we’re seeing is driven by a very narrow group (seven, to be exact) of companies investing in developing ever more powerful AI models. Beyond these seven, business investment is weak. Although unemployment has not increased, employment has increased slightly in the last few months.

Then there is Trump. His unstable policies dealt strong blows to prominent parts of the economy. China responded to American tariffs by cutting off access to rare earth minerals and sharply reducing its purchases of U.S. soybeans; This hurt farmers in the midwest. Moreover, Trump’s own Department of Labor it is a warning He said the crackdown on immigrants has created a labor shortage in the fields that threatens food supplies.

Beyond the policies, Trump’s strange tendency to stoke anger and resentment simply isn’t helping either. Not a day goes by when the president cannot convince his citizens that they are living in hell: foreign countries mistreat Americans by selling them cheap things. Migrant workers bring desolation to their communities. DEI. politics and liberal universities are brainwashing them. Democratically run cities, that is, most of them, are crime cesspools. And the economy is being destroyed by the stubborn Fed that won’t follow the president’s orders.

A rational politician promising to close the US border might be expected to take a victory lap and make happy speeches about his success in reducing the number of immigrants. a historic low. (A sensible politician could downplay the importance of fighting immigration: Only 11% of Americans think immigration is the biggest risk to the economy, according to a Guardian poll. That’s even less than the 12% who believe income inequality is the biggest threat.)

But this doesn’t fit Trump’s style. He must continue to ratchet up tensions by repeatedly claiming that the United States is under siege by murderous people from abroad. He is sending the National Guard into the streets of Democratic cities and threatening to deploy more troops on American soil. Considering the mood in the air, the average American could be forgiven for having a pessimistic outlook.