Amid the Iran chaos, war over Taiwan just became less likely
Last week’s meeting between Beijing and Taiwan’s main opposition leader was a bad omen for China hawks and a sign of rapprochement. Marcus Reubenstein reports.
The combination of the US-Israeli war on Iran and the anti-China media narrative in Australia means that the visit to China by Taiwan’s main opposition party leader Cheng Li-wun has been largely ignored. Cheng heads the Kuomintang (KMT) party and spent five days in mainland China from April 7 to April 12.
His public statements indicate his belief that it is not in Taiwan’s interest to pin all its hopes on an economic and military alliance with the United States and that its future would be better off turning to Beijing.
A significant portion of Taiwan’s population does not want armed conflict with China. More importantly, Taiwan’s political leaders recognize the fact that the United States has become an increasingly unstable and unreliable ally.
Like reported NBC News’ Cheng said, pointing to Ukraine:
People don’t want Taiwan to become the next Ukraine.
Add to this mix that Taiwan gets 70% of its oil from the Middle East, and there is a perception in Taiwan that the US bombing of Iran was disastrously planned and caused great economic pain to Taiwan. Will Taiwan face the risk of becoming the center of a future US military disaster?
Cheng in December said The New York Times asked, “Could the United States be treating Taiwan like a chess piece, a pawn that strategically opposes the Chinese Communist Party at opportune times?”
Taiwan’s ruling DPP (Democratic Progressive Party) had launched a $40 billion aid initiative. arms deal An agreement was reached with the US through parliament in March, but this was sunk by Cheng’s KMT. The ruling DPP was eventually able to obtain a deal worth only US$11 billion, or about one-third the value of an AUKUS submarine.
US war on Iran exposes Australia’s weak defenses, AUKUS further
Cheng’s visit to China
The Taiwan opposition leader’s visit to China included three very important cities, Nanjing, Shanghai and Beijing. As financial and political capitals, Shanghai and Beijing would make sense, but Nanjing has great historical significance.
Along with a large Taiwanese delegation in Nanjing, he visited the Sun Yat-sen Mausoleum, built in memory of the founding father of the Republic of China, who is revered in both Taiwan and mainland China. Nanjing is also the site of one of Japan’s worst wartime atrocities. Rape of Nanjing.
A small number of hardliners in Japan’s ruling LDP continue to deny Japanese participation in any wartime atrocities. Sanae Takaichi, the newly elected prime minister of the LDP, stating Claims that Japan would send its military to aid Taiwan in any conflict with China have significantly increased tensions between Beijing and Tokyo.
Takaichi is one of Japan’s most pro-US leaders, and Cheng’s visit to Nanjing will not go unnoticed by the US. In addition, Cheng’s idea of visiting Nanjing could be seen as an indirect message to Japan, which hosts 55,000 US troops, to stay out of Taiwanese affairs.
China promises more open economy to boost confidence
Implications for Australia
Cheng’s trip to China has implications for Australia and our foreign policies towards both our largest trading partner and most important strategic partner.
The Albanian government has cracked down on the US military push in East Asia, and now the US is showing clear signs of stress. There is USA redeployed Thaad missile systems coming from South Korea to fight Iran, as well as supercarrier naval ships based in Japan and operating in the South China Sea. sent To the Gulf. Despite being the largest military power in global history, it obviously doesn’t take much to weaken US forces.
Neither Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Foreign Secretary Penny Wong, nor Defense Minister Richard Marles have wavered from Australia’s blind support for the US war against Iran.
The question is: Will they follow the United States into an inevitably disastrous war against China, or worse, act as proxies in a future war?
Australia’s penchant for offensive military capacity, enthusiastically supported by the LNP opposition, and the billions allocated to submarines, which may never be achieved, do not bode well.
If the United States cannot defeat Iran, there is no path to victory against China, which is equally determined, much better equipped, has the world’s second largest economy, and is not a pariah state.
The US cannot bomb or sanction China.
Distinguished US political scientist Professor John Mearsheimer saysUS President Donald Trump’s war with Iran is “manna from heaven” for China. He argues that the war on Iran has made the United States an irresponsible stakeholder in the international system and that China appears to be the “adults in the room.”
China’s carrot and stick
China’s approach to Taiwan, and more generally to much of its global diplomacy, has been a mixture of carrot and stick. Beijing is still dangling the carrot in front of Taiwan. Reunification with Taiwan remains endgame
but the greatest desire is for this to be achieved peacefully.
Cheng was warmly welcomed by Chinese President Xi Jinping, and following Cheng’s visit, the Chinese government announced a list. ten new policies Promoting economic and travel initiatives to strengthen ties between Beijing and Taiwan.
There may be a stick in the background that looks like a blockade of commercial shipping around Taiwan that China could easily achieve. As Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz shows, it doesn’t take a lot of military firepower to cripple an economy.
What would or could Australia do to intervene? Hypothetically this is a problem Australia could face, but a compromise, indeed a possible unification, between Taiwan and China would render Australia’s current strategic policy moot.
Taiwan’s future?
Although opinions about Cheng are divided in Taiwan, his chances of becoming Taiwan’s next president in the 2028 elections are realistic. To win, he doesn’t have to run solely on China policy; There are many domestic issues facing voters. There is also no suggestion that a reunified Taiwan would be considered a province of China. Instead it will become a special administrative region, citizens will keep Taiwanese passports and the New Taiwan Dollar will remain the official currency.
The clear line for Beijing will be for separatist movements and their sympathizers to speak out. Taiwan will also be prohibited from entering into any military alliances or agreements with other countries.
While these are the same conditions imposed on Hong Kong, Taiwan has little tradition of democracy. For its first four decades as a region, it was governed under martial law, and democratic presidential elections were not held until 1996.
Current president Lai Ching-te is very unpopular with his choices approval rating After reaching a low of 40% in the latest surveys, it has fallen to 33% by late 2025. Cheng’s approval rating is lower, reflecting the Taiwanese people’s distrust of their political leaders.
In terms of specific issues, concerns about the economy come first for Taiwanese voters.
Chinese people, that is, those of Chinese ethnicity, are generally quite pragmatic. Cheng believes that close ties with China represent the future and that China
Taiwanese will begin to distrust Washington more than they do Beijing.
Who’s next? Will Albo and Wong approve of China attacking Taiwan?
Marcus Reubenstein is an independent journalist with over twenty-five years of media experience. He spent five years at Seven News in Sydney and seven years at SBS World News, where he was a senior correspondent. As a print journalist, he has contributed business stories to many of Australia’s leading news outlets. He has worked internationally at CNN, Eurosport and the Olympic Games Broadcasting Service. He is the founder and editor of APAC Business Review, the new Asian business website.
