Analysis-Russia pounds on the gates of Ukraine’s ‘fortress belt’

Written by: Dan Peleschuk and Anatolii Stepanov

NEAR KYIV/DRUZHKIVKA, Ukraine, June 29 (Reuters) – Russia is advancing on Kostiantynivka, a key stronghold in Ukraine’s eastern “fortress belt” long coveted by the Kremlin, even as its gains on the rest of the 1,200 km front line have largely stalled.

Conflicts began to leak into the city. Senior Ukrainian commanders said last week that small groups of Russian military were trying to infiltrate the outskirts, suggesting close-quarters attacks could be coming.

Kostiantynivka is the southernmost of four key settlements that form a defensive line at the center of Ukraine’s effort to hold the heavily industrialized Donetsk region.

Although medium-range drone strikes on Ukraine’s logistics have weakened its combat capabilities, the push underscores Moscow’s enduring manpower advantage, analysts said.

“The impact of the medium-range strikes was not great enough to force the Russians to suspend their attacks,” said Emil Kastehelmi, of the Black Bird conflict analysis team in Finland.

“So even though Russia is suffering heavier losses from behind, they can still continue their attacks, at least in certain sectors.”

The occupation of Kostiantynivka would give Russian forces a foothold from which they could move northward across the belt that is currently the central axis of their campaign.

But any advance would likely be long and bloody for his forces, a possible reflection of the costly sieges of other cities to the east such as Pokrovsk and Avdiivka.

President Vladimir Putin insisted that Russia must control all of Donetsk before the war ends. After more than four years of conflict, Ukraine still holds about a fifth of the territory.

‘CARDS ARE INCREASING EVERY DAY’

Putin said last week that Russia was close to capturing Kostiantynivka, whose population has fallen to around 2,000 from around 70,000 before the war.

In comments to Ukrainian media, senior commanders of Kiev’s 19th Army Corps dismissed the claim as an exaggeration and said their units were targeting small groups of Russians who managed to enter.

Major General Viktor Nikoliuk, head of Ukraine’s eastern operational command, told Ukraine’s public broadcaster on Thursday that Kostiantynivka can survive with the current rate of manpower and resources.

The US-based Institute for the Study of War said in its assessment on June 23 that the tactical situation for Ukraine had worsened, but that Russian infiltrations were not sufficient for a “rapid operational breakthrough”.

Still, Russia’s efforts to surround the city with pincer movements have steadily increased the cost of Kiev’s defense, said Ruslan Mykula, a Ukrainian analyst with the open source mapping group DeepState.

“A choice will have to be made: Either increase the risk or retreat,” he said. “And right now the situation is such that the risks are increasing day by day.”

The city’s decline “seems more like a matter of time,” Kastehelmi said.

Moscow’s troops are also attacking the northern end of the fortress belt, threatening the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk with frequent air and drone strikes from about 15 km (9 miles) away.

Soldiers in the region said Ukrainian supply routes were already under constant pressure as artillery, drones and guided bombs destroyed infrastructure along the road north of Kostiantynivka.

drone invaded sky

Reuters recently joined members of the National Police’s “Predator” rifle brigade, which is tasked with patrolling the battle route against drones and remotely-launched mines.

Fiber optic cable strands used to direct drones from a first-person perspective are scattered in anti-drone networks along the road, glistening under the scorching sun.

Ground robots carrying food, water and supplies (the most common method of delivery in what is now called the “kill zone”) rock back and forth as soldiers zip by on quad bikes.

Soldier Oleksandr Kosmin, 34, said the route was too dangerous to evacuate the dead and injured with standard vehicles: “Everything happens on foot.”

Surrounding civilian life is collapsing under the pressure. In Druzhkivka, about 12 kilometers to the north, residents are being forced to leave as fighting approaches.

On a green street, a husband and wife lay unconscious in a minibus that was hit by a Russian drone. The white ribbons that identified the vehicle as civilian were still flying on its roof.

Speaking from the police evacuation van, 59-year-old Larysa Sereda said, “Why am I leaving? Because I’m afraid. Drones are flying.”

“But I plan to return home. I don’t want to stay in a strange place. The war will be over and I will return home.”

RUSSIA’S WAR MACHINE FALLS

Russia’s growing gains around Kostiantynivka come despite increasing pressure on the war effort from Ukrainian attacks on supply lines to and from Crimea, as well as long-range strikes on the oil sector.

Russian-appointed authorities on the occupied Black Sea peninsula declared a state of emergency to deal with economic problems and halted all fuel sales to individuals and businesses.

More broadly on the battlefield, Russian forces appear overextended, with front-line attacks often resulting in only one or two soldiers, Ukrainian analyst Mykula said.

But Denis Pushilin, the Kremlin’s head of Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region, told Reuters that Russia’s campaign to capture more cities continues.

“It’s not really important to talk about whether this is happening slowly or quickly,” he said.

Russian hardliners have called on Putin to abandon the US-backed peace process and escalate the war as Ukrainian attacks, including by Moscow, intensify.

(Additional reporting by Daniel Flynn in Kiev; Editing by Ros Russell)