Andy Burnham faces perilous race to win Makerfield byelection, allies say | Labour

As Andy Burnham prepares for a by-election that will decide the long-term future of Labor and the country, his allies have warned he faces a dangerous race to win the seat of Makerfield.

The mayor of Greater Manchester will be confirmed as Labour’s candidate for the north-west constituency later this week, but those close to him say he faces an uphill battle to defeat Reform UK. Nigel Farage’s party won more than 50% of the vote in the local elections and polls show Burnham only marginally ahead.

Reform is likely to focus heavily on immigration and Brexit over the next few weeks as it seeks to capitalize on Labor’s growing debate over whether Britain should seek to rejoin the EU.

The outcome of the by-election is likely to determine not only the immediate political future of Keir Starmer, whom Burnham has vowed to challenge if elected, but also the viability of the Labor Party as a whole.

The Prime Minister spent the weekend at Checkers contemplating his political future and his allies say he is prepared to step aside if, despite a public challenge, Burnham wins an open post at Makerfield and no other challenger emerges.

If he loses the by-election, Starmer will remain in office but will be severely damaged by weeks of damaging attacks from his own MPs and with no obvious successor. One ally said: “It’s impossible to underline how dangerous this is. “I’d give Andy a 45% chance of winning, maybe a little more than that.

“It’s compelling to tell Progressive voters to vote for Andy to get Starmer out, but on the other hand you’re telling Reform voters that if they vote Reform they could wipe out Labor.”

Burnham spent the weekend in Greater Manchester, campaigning in Makerfield and meeting with senior Labor figures involved in the election campaign. Applications to run for the seat will close at noon on Monday, with a formal candidate recommendation from Labour’s ruling executive committee on Thursday. The process could go faster if Burnham were the sole applicant.

Voting on the seat is likely to be held on or around June 18, giving Labor and Reform a four-week window before the primary election, which could be one of the most important by-elections in British political history.

Despite the local election results, Burnham’s personal popularity in Manchester gives him a chance of winning the race, pollsters say.

Luke Tryl, director of research group More in Common, said: “There are two magnificent forces playing against each other: the demographics of the seat, which all point to a Reform win, and Burnham’s personal factor.

“That makes the outcome really important. If Labor doesn’t win, they can pack up and go home. If they win, all bets are off in terms of the prime minister’s future.”

Labor figures say they believe Burnham’s job has been made more difficult by the public row over the weekend following comments by another potential leadership rival, Wes Streeting, on whether Britain should rejoin the EU.

Streeting said on Saturday he believed Britain’s long-term future lay in rejoining the union; this was quickly dismissed as “bizarre” by culture secretary Lisa Nandy.

Reform hopes to focus heavily on Labour’s stance on European membership during the campaign, leaving Burnham in the difficult position of deciding whether to align more with the wider Labor membership, which is overwhelmingly pro-EU, or with voters in Makerfield, 65% of whom voted to leave in 2016.

Labour’s stance will be further tested on Wednesday when the Liberal Democrats amend the king’s speech calling on the government to immediately begin negotiations on entering the customs union.

Starmer has ruled out such a deal, but his colleagues, including Streeting, argue it hinders the government’s attempts to boost growth.

Immigration is also likely to feature heavily in the by-election campaign, putting Burnham in an even more difficult position. Many Labor members whose votes it will need in the leadership contest are pressing for the government to soften changes to the asylum system, while many voters in seats such as Makerfield are calling for an even tougher line.

Tom Baldwin, a former Labor Party official and Starmer’s biographerHe said: “If Burham says things that make him opposed to a much closer relationship with Europe, or appears to take a hard line on immigration to win the by-election, this could make it even harder for him to win the next election – among party members who appear to have a much more progressive view on these issues.”

Streeting will reiterate his pro-EU stance when he delivers a closely watched resignation speech in the House of Commons this week.

Allies say he intends to argue that the government is not bold enough in its policies or political arguments and wants to focus not only on EU relations but also on wealth taxes and the role of technology in people’s lives.

“There’s no point in trying not to upset anyone, that’s what got us into this problem,” one of them said. “Sometimes you have to be willing to upset people to get things done.”

As his potential successors jockey for the position, Starmer is said to be reconsidering his previous determination to enter the leadership race under any circumstances.

Downing Street insisted on Sunday he would run for the leadership if challenged, but friends say his position has softened.

After a weekend at his official residence in the country, he is understood to have decided to postpone a decision on his future until after the by-election; That’s when it will become clear whether he will face a challenge and who he will face.

A friend of mine said: “His attitude is not ‘I’ll survive no matter what’. That depends on what happens, but it’s also about not rushing into positions that might suit certain other factions in the Labor Party.”