Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber is already on track to challenge Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire
It’s easy to overlook what Kyle Schwarber has done as the Philadelphia Phillies are off to an overall disappointing start to the 2026 season.
Despite being in his early 30s, Schwarber has taken his offensive game to a whole new level. In 2025, Schwarber set a new career high with 56 home runs. He could be on his way to a much more impressive and historic number in the first 46 games of the 2026 season.
Remarkably, Schwarber has already reached 20 points in his first 46 games. Over the course of 162 games, that would put him on pace to hit 70 home runs in 2026.
Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter Kyle Schwarber celebrates hitting a home run in the seventh inning against the Colorado Rockies on May 22, 2025 at Coors Field. (Ron Chenoy/Imagn Images)
Where does this accumulate historically? Only two players in MLB history have hit 70 or more home runs in a season; Barry Bonds and Mark McGwire. What else do these two actors have in common? Both were linked to performance-enhancing drugs. And in fact, the players who make up the all-time single-season home run leaderboard are primarily concentrated in that period.
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- Bonds 73
- McGwire 70
- Sammy Sosa’s 66
- McGwire 65
- Sosa 64
- Sosa 63
Until we get to Aaron Judge’s incredible 62 home run season in 2022, there’s Bonds, McGwire and Sosa. Can Schwarber challenge the 70 home run mark and in doing so become the first person to reach that number without some sort of PED connection? Even looking at some historical comparisons, Schwarber’s 2026 was impressive.
Philadelphia Phillies’ Kyle Schwarber is applauded on the bench after hitting a solo home run in the first inning against the Colorado Rockies on May 10, 2026 in Philadelphia. (Laurence Kesterson/AP)
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Judge hit 20 home runs on June 3 when he hit 62 in 2022. Bonds reached 20 on May 19, the same year they reached 73. Schwarber reached 20 on May 15. His last appearance came during the Phillies’ wild comeback win over the Pittsburgh Pirates on Friday.
He has hit more home runs than 22 teams since May 7. He has more total bases in the first inning this year than the entire San Diego Padres offense. That’s incredible.
Looking at the data for the season, there are some reasons to be optimistic and some reasons to be skeptical. Schwarber’s average launch angle so far is 23.6, which is by far the highest of his career. Hit the ball more in the air and you’ll have more opportunities to score. But it’s not just about going higher; hitting higher with authority. Schwarber’s career rate is 16.6%. This year? 26.2%. Making elite contact in the air at this level is the recipe for success.
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Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter Kyle Schwarber runs the bases after hitting a two-run home run against the Boston Red Sox during the eighth inning at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts on May 14, 2026. (Eric Canha/Imagn Images)
However, their expected stats are not all that rosy. The actual slugging percentage of 0.642 is 50 points higher than the “expected” slugging percentage of 0.592. He’s still elite, but he’s showing some good luck with his results. The same goes for his 33.9% home run/fly ball ratio. Last year, 28.6% of the fly balls he hit turned into homers, and that 5-plus percent increase may be unlikely to continue.
Still, it’s a remarkable start to the season. And if Schwarber continues this trend, this too will be a historic finish.
