Another ‘Super El Niño’ is brewing. Scientists are looking at a controversial solution to squash them

Super El Niño is approaching and could happen busiest in recent yearsIt threatens a dramatic increase in deadly extreme weather. What if there was a way for people to reduce the severe effects of the most severe El Niños by temporarily darkening the sun?

That’s the question a group of scientists explored in a new study published Wednesday in the journal Science Advances.

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El Niño is a natural climate pattern originating from the tropical Pacific Ocean that often increases global temperatures and fuels extreme weather conditions. This is compounded by human-caused climate change, which is increasing the planet’s background temperature, pushing El Niño years into increasingly extreme regions, with devastating effects on human life and global economies.

The study, led by scientists at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, focused on whether highly controversial technique This method, called solar geoengineering, could be used as a tool to suppress the intense heat, fires and other impacts brought by El Niño.

Specifically, they studied “marine cloud sheen,” which involves spraying particles into ocean clouds to reflect sunlight away from Earth and back into space.

In a statement accompanying the report, they wrote that researchers were unable to conduct real-world geoengineering experiments to test the idea due to fear of “unintended disastrous consequences,” so instead they turned to a “natural experiment.”

Australia’s “Black Summer” bushfires of 2019 and 2020 burned tens of millions of acres and contributed to the deaths of hundreds of people. They also produced smoke clouds filled with sun-reflecting particles that mixed with clouds over the Pacific Ocean.

Pre research found that these ultra-reflective clouds reflect much of the sun’s energy back into space, cooling the Pacific. contributing to a subsequent La Niña eventThe equivalent of El Niño that tends to lower global temperatures.

Scientists isolated the cloud-clearing effects of the Australian fires and used climate models to simulate the impact of a similar event that occurred before two historically strong El Niño events, one that started in 1997 and the other in 2015.

They found that targeted marine cloud brightening could weaken the effects of El Niño and increase the cooling and drying effects associated with La Niña by 40%. The study concluded that the earlier the technique is applied, the more effective it will be in an El Niño event.

Geoengineering is a hotly debated topic. Some experts are of the opinion that this is too dangerous to even consider, as it would lead to an almost infinite number of undesirable consequences. They also fear that this will need to be continued indefinitely to prevent possible “termination shock” (a catastrophic rise in temperatures if geoengineering is started and then stopped).

But what scientists are thinking here is different, said Kate Ricke, a study author and climate scientist at Scripps School of Oceanography and UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy. The idea is to use geoengineering as a temporary tool to target a specific seasonal or multi-year event but guaranteed to bring significant damage, he said, “it’s not something you lock yourself into.”

Ricke emphasized that the paper does not advocate geoengineering. “This is just a proof of concept… all we’ve shown is that it’s worth further study,” he said.

Researchers acknowledge several potential drawbacks. El Niño is a very complex phenomenon; while causing Global economic losses in the trillionsNot every region loses. Some adapt to its effects; California, for example, relies on the heavy rain that El Niño brings to replenish its water reserves, even though it can be dangerous.

It will also be important to understand how this technique will affect the timing, frequency and magnitude of a later La Niña event and what its impact will be on specific regions, Ricke said.

“You have to think very carefully about the trade-offs,” he said. Geoengineering “is probably best for now to think in terms of super El Niños, where most people and most places are losers and really extreme, damaging events are most likely,” he added.

James Haywood, professor of atmospheric science at the University of Exeter, who was not involved in the research, said there were “many unanswered questions and uncertainties about the feasibility of brightening marine clouds” in terms of controlling the cooling effect.

There are technical challenges to producing the right size and quantity of particles to provide the desired amount of cooling, he said. “Then the question becomes: What if we overdo it?” He added, citing the possibility of a mega La Niña that is “much, much stronger than anything we have experienced before.” La Niñas can also bring extreme weather conditions, including increased rainfall and flooding in parts of Asia and Australia, and drier than normal conditions in parts of South America and the United States.

“We are a long way from being able to implement such technologies and knowing whether they will work as intended,” he said.

David Keith, a professor of geophysical sciences at the University of Chicago, also noted the engineering challenges. “Almost two decades after the research began, marine cloud brightener nozzles have spray rates… that are at least a factor of a hundred too small for practical use,” said Keith, who was not involved in the research. He added that the technique may be physically possible, but “the technology just doesn’t exist” at the moment.

Beyond the technical issues lie ethical dilemmas, Haywood said, such as who gets to decide whether the world will opt for the technique and whether geoengineering will distract from efforts to reduce planet-warming pollution.

These questions are beyond the scope of this research, but Ricke acknowledged there is more work to be done. “We need to understand a lot more,” he said, “but if there’s a way to use this … why don’t we consider that to mitigate El Niño?”

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