Armenia heads to polls amid Russian pressure and threat of ‘Ukrainian scenario’ | Armenia

The bottling line of the Abovyan cognac factory in Armenia is working at full speed.

Women in white coats and hairnets work at practice speed on the conveyor; It’s a race to label, stack, load pallets and fill a truck.

The soul’s goal is Russia. But he probably won’t get there.

Last month, Moscow announced a ban on imports from Abovyan, along with two other leading producers of Armenian cognac (the name under which Armenian brandy is sold in Russia).

The official reason for the move was health concerns, but it was widely seen as political pressure aimed at deterring the country from heading west ahead of parliamentary elections on Sunday.

It was the latest in a series of recently imposed, long-running trade restrictions – affecting everything from flowers to fish to fruit and its famous brandy – that the Kremlin has imposed on a country of 3 million that sends about 40% of its exports to nearby Russia.

“We hope that all this will end,” Samvel Goroyan, Abovyan’s director, said in his office on the outskirts of the capital Yerevan. “All of our bonnets are sold in Russia, 7 million bottles a year,” he shrugged. “We have nowhere else to go.”

For most of its post-Soviet existence since 1991, Armenia was Moscow’s closest ally in the South Caucasus, bridging Eastern Europe and Western Asia. It hosted Russian troops, purchased Russian weapons, and integrated into Kremlin-led political and economic structures.

But relations have slowly begun to thaw under the current prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan, whose Civil Contract Party came to power following a popular revolution in 2018.

The push to steer Armenia towards Europe represents the most significant change in foreign policy since independence, and Sunday’s vote will be a test of that policy, which Pashinyan pursues despite the reality of his country’s deep economic dependence on Russia.

“Moscow feels that it has lost Armenia and that the country has become a little too big for its boots,” said Thomas de Waal, senior researcher at global analysts at Carnegie Europe. “So Moscow is trying to force Pashinyan to make a choice on behalf of Russia.”

Last month, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that Armenia could face a “Ukrainian scenario” if it pursued its European integration goals. Meanwhile, Dmitry Medvedev, the hawkish deputy chairman of Russia’s powerful security council, hinted that Pashinyan may suffer the fate of Bolshevik leader Leon Trotsky, whom Joseph Stalin killed with an ice pick.

Relations between the two countries were shaken for the first time when Azerbaijan, which neighbors both, seized the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region in 2023, triggering the exodus of more than 100,000 ethnic Armenians from the region.

For many Armenians, Russia’s response was a turning point. Although Moscow is in a security alliance with Armenia and maintains peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh, it stepped aside when Azerbaijan took control, revealing the limits of Russia’s security guarantees.

This loss led officials in Yerevan to openly question the value of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the Moscow-led military alliance that Armenia has long viewed as the cornerstone of its security. Pashinyan completely suspended Armenia’s participation last year.

The country further raised Moscow’s ire in April when it hosted a European Political Community summit with the participation of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

In recent months, Pashinyan has not only talked about Armenia’s dreams of joining the EU (which is still a distant possibility) but has also made progress with Washington.

While Donald Trump publicly supported him, vice president J.D. Vance and secretary of state Marco Rubio visited Yerevan, underscoring a level of U.S. political interest and economic involvement it has never had before.

For Moscow, Armenia’s westward drift comes at a particularly sensitive time, the fourth year of a grinding war in Ukraine, as it embarks on an increasingly complex effort to maintain its influence in the former Soviet zone and beyond.

Areg Kochinyan, head of the Yerevan-based Center for Security Policy Research, said: “The Russians, in their understanding, are worried about losing yet another country that they consider to be their rightful sphere of interests, and they are acting accordingly.”

The Kremlin has previously tried unsuccessfully to support friendly political forces in elections in Moldova and Hungary, using what western intelligence services describe as a combination of disinformation campaigns and covert influence operations.

Analysts and Western officials say some elements of the same strategy are now being implemented in Armenia. The Kremlin’s support has flowed toward Pashinyan’s chief rival, Russian-Armenian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, whose Strong Armenia party advocates closer ties with Moscow. He is currently under house arrest on charges related to calls for a power grab.

However, despite Moscow’s pressure, opinion polls show that Pashinyan’s party is on track to easily emerge as the largest political force, receiving around 30% of the votes, while Karapetyan lags behind with around 10%.

Richard Giragosian, director of the Center for Regional Studies, a Yerevan-based think tank, said, “The interesting thing is that this campaign of Russia backfired. This only led to Pashinyan’s strengthening in his own country.”

De Waal added that the Armenian opposition has greatly discredited him in public opinion due to his closeness to Russia. “Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party is likely to win the elections more or less by default,” de Waal said. “Not because the Prime Minister is still popular – he is not – but because Armenia’s opposition is less competent or impressive and too associated with Russia.”

Analysts say Moscow is also careful not to push too hard, as the Kremlin understands that excessive pressure could backfire and further fuel anti-Russian sentiment.

Armenian political scientist Hovhannes Nikoghosyan said: “No one can predict with certainty how far Moscow will keep up the pressure if Pashinyan is re-elected, but if he remains in power, Russia will still have to find some modus operandi in the current political environment. Leaving Armenia in the arms of its geopolitical rivals is something the Kremlin does not want to do.”

Pashinyan, a former journalist, has focused his campaign on what he calls the “crossroads of peace”: a vision of Armenia as a regional transit hub that reconnects long-closed borders with Azerbaijan and its ally Turkey, moving the country beyond decades of conflict and tenuous connections.

He also made it clear that, like many Armenians, he was seeking diversity rather than a divorce from Russia. Pashinyan emphasized that Moscow will maintain its large military base in Armenia and said he would travel to meet Putin shortly after the elections.

Giragosyan said, “Russia has such dominance that the West is not a comparable rival. Pashinyan’s policies are based on realistic evaluations. No one is talking about replacing Russia with France, Europe or the USA overnight.”

Still, European leaders have made little secret of their preference for Pashinyan’s victory.

The Armenian prime minister has developed particularly close relations with French president Emmanuel Macron, and the two leaders even performed a musical show together during Macron’s visit to Armenia; Pashinyan singing on the drum at an official dinner of the French president.

This support comes despite growing concerns about Pashinyan’s democratic record. Dozens of opposition activists, including Karapetyan’s allies, were detained before the election.

These criticisms were largely ignored in Brussels. Eager to support Armenia’s move away from Moscow, the EU on Thursday announced an initial €50 million economic support package to help the country overcome Russia’s trade pressure and promised further economic cooperation.

After Russia banned flower imports, Ukraine started importing Armenian roses as a symbolic gesture of solidarity.

But despite Armenia’s best efforts to diversify its partnerships, Moscow still has strong economic and political leverage. Russian officials have hinted in recent weeks that Armenia can no longer rely on the subsidized gas that makes up the bulk of its economy.

“When Russia demands to renegotiate the price of subsidized gas, that tells you that Armenia is going too far, too fast,” Giragosian said. “Then there will be a real crisis.”