As Shiv Sena, TMC splits swell NDA ranks, TDP and JDU lose some of their bargaining chip
While allies have been tamed by the BJP, the significance of these developments lies less in numbers and more in what they mean for coalition governance. When the BJP’s seat count fell to 240 in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, TDP and JDU emerged as indispensable partners in government formation. Their support not only brought the NDA back to power but also reshaped the NDA.
Also read: Shiv Sena (UBT) distributes whip to MPs amid split speculation
The political lexicon itself has changed; References to the “Modi government” have gradually given way to the “NDA government”; acceptance of the new coalition reality. The change was also reflected in policy priorities. The first budget of NDA 3.0 was widely seen to have a strong Andhra-Bihar imprint.
Andhra has received commitments on capital development, industrial corridors, infrastructure and the long-pending Polavaram project, while Bihar has received a series of announcements on infrastructure, flood management, connectivity and economic development.
The message was clear: the BJP was ready to meet the demands of allies whose support had become critical. Two years later, the arithmetic appears to be changing. The six Shiv Sena (UBT) MPs joining the Shinde-led Sena could take its strength to 14. Coupled with the TMC split of 20 MPs joining the NCPI, it supports a growing ecosystem of BJP-backed allies who draw their political weight from the ruling party.
Their rise expands the BJP’s support ecosystem and gives it greater flexibility in managing alliance politics. Meanwhile, the JDU appears less assertive than it did immediately after the 2024 decision. With Nitish Kumar increasingly stepping back from day-to-day political management and a transition process within the party beginning, many in the NDA see it as more firmly entrenched in the coalition framework than at any point in recent years.
The developments come at a time when there are intense rumors about a possible Union Cabinet reshuffle. With the BJP gaining more comfort in parliament by increasing NDA-aligned numbers, the latest defections are likely to be judged by allies in terms of influence, representation and bargaining power within the coalition.
Also read: Shiv Sena (UBT) MPs Sanjay Raut, Anil Desai and Arvind Sawant meet Om Birla, send letter amid breakup rumors
This does not diminish the importance of TDP and JDU. Any constitutional change, including a future delimitation exercise, would require a two-thirds majority, ensuring major allies remain indispensable. But the emergence of new NDA-aligned blocs shows that the BJP has reduced its vulnerability to pressure from any ally by creating additional support centres.
For allies who have become indispensable after 2024, the message is subtle but significant: While their support remains vital, their privileges may no longer be the same.
